DEMOCRACY’S SPREAD: Elections and Sovereign Debt in Developing Countries

We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop and test a framework for explaining election-period changes in credit spreads for developing country sovereign bonds. Pre-election bond spread trends are significantly linked both to the partisan orientation of incumbents facing election and to expectations of incumbent victory. Bond spreads for right-wing (leftwing) incumbents increase (decrease) as the likelihood of left-wing (right-wing) challenger victory increases. For right-wing incumbent partisan and opportunistic PBC effects bondholder risk perceptions are mutually reinforcing. For left-wing incumbents partisan PBC effects dominate bondholder risk perceptions compared to opportunistic PBC effects.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39961/3/wp575.pd

Democratization’s Risk Premium: Partisan and Opportunistic Political Business Cycle Effects on Sovereign Ratings in Developing Countries

We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop a framework for explaining election-period decisions by credit rating agencies (“agencies”) publishing developing country sovereign risk-ratings (“ratings”). We test six hypotheses derived from the framework with 482 agency ratings for 19 countries holding 39 presidential elections from 1987-2000. We find that ratings are linked to the partisan orientation of incumbents facing election and to expectations of incumbent victory. Consistent with the framework, rating effects are sometimes greater for right-wing compared to left-wing incumbents, perhaps, because partisan PBC considerations with right-wing (left-wing) incumbents reinforce (counteract) opportunistic PBC considerations.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39931/3/wp546.pd

Revisiting African Agriculture: Institutional Change and Productivity Growth

Africa is largely agrarian, and the performance of agriculture shapes the performance of its economies. It has long been argued that economic development in Africa is strongly conditioned by politics. Recent changes in Africa’s political systems enables us to test this argument and, by extension, broader claims about the impact of political institutions on economic development. Building on a recent analysis of total factor productivity growth in African agriculture, we find that the introduction of competitive presidential elections in the last decades of the twentieth century appears to have altered political incentives, resulting in policy reforms that have enhanced the performance of farmers.African and African American StudiesGovernmen

The New Institutionalism and Africa

After briefly reviewing the new institutionalism, this article uses the history of political reform in Africa to test its key tenet: that power, if properly organised, is a productive resource. It does so by exploring the relationship between changes in political institutions and changes in economic performance, both at the macro- and the micro level. The evidence indicates that political reform (Granger) causes increases in GDP per capita in the African subset of global data. And, at the micro level, it demonstrates that changes in national political institutions in Africa strongly relate to changes in total factor productivity in agriculture.African and African American StudiesGovernmen

Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus thynnus) Diet in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and on the Eastern Scotian Shelf

The stomach contents of 68 Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) landed in Port Hood and Canso, Nova Scotia, in 2010, were analyzed to characterize the diet of bluefin tuna at the two locations. Of the sampled fish, 54 stomachs had contents. Pelagic schooling fish such as herring (Clupea harengus) and mackerel (Scomber scombrus) dominated the diets in both regions. However, a number of rare species, including demersal species, were also observed. Despite the difference in location and the significantly larger size of the Atlantic bluefin tuna landed in Port Hood, the diets of the Atlantic bluefin tuna landed at both sites were similar

Prevalence and predictors of post‐traumatic stress symptoms in adolescent and young adult cancer survivors: a 1‐year follow‐up study

Objectives Post‐traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) have been identified as a meaningful indicator of distress in cancer survivors. Distinct from young adult survivors of childhood cancer, young people diagnosed with cancer as adolescents and young adults (AYAs) face unique psychosocial issues; however, there is little published research of PTSS in the AYA population. This study examines prevalence and predictors of PTSS among AYAs with cancer. Methods As part of a longitudinal study of AYAs with cancer, 151 patients aged 15–39 years completed mailed surveys at 6 and 12 months post‐diagnosis. Severity of PTSS was estimated at 6 and 12 months post‐diagnosis. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to investigate the predictive effects of socio‐demographic and clinical characteristics on changes in PTSS over time. Results At 6 and 12 months, respectively, 39% and 44% of participants reported moderate to severe levels of PTSS; 29% had PTSS levels suggestive of post‐traumatic stress disorder. No significant differences in severity of PTSS between 6 and 12 months were observed. Regression analyses suggested that a greater number of side effects were associated with higher levels of PTSS at 6 months. Currently receiving treatment, having surgical treatment, diagnosis of a cancer type with a 90–100% survival rate, remaining unemployed/not in school, and greater PTSS at 6 months were associated with higher levels of PTSS at 12 months. Conclusions Post‐traumatic stress symptoms were observed as early as 6 months following diagnosis and remained stable at 12‐month follow‐up. The development of early interventions for reducing distress among AYA patients in treatment is recommended. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/99033/1/pon3217.pd

Psychological distress and unsatisfied need for psychosocial support in adolescent and young adult cancer patients during the first year following diagnosis

Purpose Identifying at‐risk adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer patients and referring them to age‐appropriate psychosocial support services may be instrumental in reducing psychological distress and promoting psychosocial adaptation. The purpose of this study is to identify trajectories of clinically significant levels of distress throughout the first year following diagnosis and to distinguish factors, including supportive care service use, that predict the extent to which AYAs report distress. Methods In this prospective multisite study, 215 AYAs aged 15–39 years were assessed for psychological distress and psychosocial support service use within the first 4 months of diagnosis and again 6 and 12 months later. On the basis of distress scores, respondents were assigned to one of four distress trajectory groups (Resilient, Recovery, Delayed, and Chronic). Multiple logistic regression analyses examined whether demographics, clinical variables, and reports of unsatisfied need for psychosocial support were associated with distress trajectories over 1 year. Results Twelve percent of AYAs reported clinically significant chronic distress throughout the first 12 months following diagnosis. An additional 15% reported delayed distress. Substantial proportions of AYAs reported that needs for information (57%), counseling (41%), and practical support (39%) remained unsatisfied at 12 months following diagnosis. Not getting counseling needs met, particularly with regard to professional mental health services, was observed to be significantly associated with distress over time. Conclusions Substantial proportions of AYAs are not utilizing psychosocial support services. Findings suggest the importance of identifying psychologically distressed AYAs and addressing their needs for mental health counseling throughout a continuum of care. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/109318/1/pon3533.pd

Coordination of opposite-polarity microtubule motors

Many cargoes move bidirectionally, frequently reversing course between plus- and minus-end microtubule travel. For such cargoes, the extent and importance of interactions between the opposite-polarity motors is unknown. In this paper we test whether opposite-polarity motors on lipid droplets in Drosophila embryos are coordinated and avoid interfering with each other's activity, or whether they engage in a tug of war. To this end we impaired the minus-end transport machinery using dynein and dynactin mutations, and then investigated whether plus-end motion was improved or disrupted. We observe a surprisingly severe impairment of plus-end motion due to these alterations of minus-end motor activity. These observations are consistent with a coordination hypothesis, but cannot be easily explained with a tug of war model. Our measurements indicate that dynactin plays a crucial role in the coordination of plus- and minus-end–directed motors. Specifically, we propose that dynactin enables dynein to participate efficiently in bidirectional transport, increasing its ability to stay “on” during minus-end motion and keeping it “off” during plus-end motion

Spawning of bluefin tuna in the black sea: historical evidence, environmental constraints and population plasticity

<div><p>The lucrative and highly migratory Atlantic bluefin tuna, <em>Thunnus thynnus</em> (Linnaeus 1758<em>;</em> Scombridae), used to be distributed widely throughout the north Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea. Its migrations have supported sustainable fisheries and impacted local cultures since antiquity, but its biogeographic range has contracted since the 1950s. Most recently, the species disappeared from the Black Sea in the late 1980s and has not yet recovered. Reasons for the Black Sea disappearance, and the species-wide range contraction, are unclear. However bluefin tuna formerly foraged and possibly spawned in the Black Sea. Loss of a locally-reproducing population would represent a decline in population richness, and an increase in species vulnerability to perturbations such as exploitation and environmental change. Here we identify the main genetic and phenotypic adaptations that the population must have (had) in order to reproduce successfully in the specific hydrographic (estuarine) conditions of the Black Sea. By comparing hydrographic conditions in spawning areas of the three species of bluefin tunas, and applying a mechanistic model of egg buoyancy and sinking rate, we show that reproduction in the Black Sea must have required specific adaptations of egg buoyancy, fertilisation and development for reproductive success. Such adaptations by local populations of marine fish species spawning in estuarine areas are common as is evident from a meta-analysis of egg buoyancy data from 16 species of fish. We conclude that these adaptations would have been necessary for successful local reproduction by bluefin tuna in the Black Sea, and that a locally-adapted reproducing population may have disappeared. Recovery of bluefin tuna in the Black Sea, either for spawning or foraging, will occur fastest if any remaining locally adapted individuals are allowed to survive, and by conservation and recovery of depleted Mediterranean populations which could through time re-establish local Black Sea spawning and foraging.</p> </div

Flexible use of a dynamic energy landscape buffers a marine predator against extreme climate variability

Animal migrations track predictable seasonal patterns of resource availability and suitable thermal habitat. As climate change alters this 'energy landscape', some migratory species may struggle to adapt. We examined how climate variability influences movements, thermal habitat selection and energy intake by juvenile Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) during seasonal foraging migrations in the California Current. We tracked 242 tuna across 15 years (2002-2016) with high-resolution archival tags, estimating their daily energy intake via abdominal warming associated with digestion (the 'heat increment of feeding'). The poleward extent of foraging migrations was flexible in response to climate variability, allowing tuna to track poleward displacements of thermal habitat where their standard metabolic rates were minimized. During a marine heatwave that saw temperature anomalies of up to +2.5 degrees C in the California Current, spatially explicit energy intake by tuna was approximately 15% lower than average. However, by shifting their mean seasonal migration approximately 900 km poleward, tuna remained in waters within their optimal temperature range and increased their energy intake. Our findings illustrate how tradeoffs between physiology and prey availability structure migration in a highly mobile vertebrate, and suggest that flexible migration strategies can buffer animals against energetic costs associated with climate variability and change