Ariel - Volume 2 Number 7

Editors Richard J. Bonanno Robin A. Edwards Associate Editors Steven Ager Stephen Flynn Shep Dickman Tom Williams Lay-out Editor Eugenia Miller Contributing Editors Michael J. Blecker W. Cherry Light James J. Nocon Lynne Porter Editors Emeritus Delvyn C. Case, Jr. Paul M. Fernhof

Ariel - Volume 2 Number 6

Editors Richard J. Bonanno Robin A. Edwards Associate Editors Steven Ager Stephen Flynn Shep Dickman Tom Williams Lay-out Editor Eugenia Miller Contributing Editors Michael J. Blecker W. Cherry Light James J. Nocon Lynne Porter Editors Emeritus Delvyn C. Case, Jr. Paul M. Fernhof

The WRF Lightning Forecast Algorithm: Sensitivities to Microphysics and Other Physics Schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

No abstract availabl

A Multi-Season Study of the Effects of MODIS Sea-Surface Temperatures on Operational WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

Studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea-surface temperature (SST) composites in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. Recent work by LaCasse et al (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPORT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The project's goal is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run dally initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution (approx.9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPORT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water, The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPORT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST data into the SPORT WRF runs is staggered such that SSTs are updated with a new composite every six hours in each of the WRF runs. From mid-February to July 2007, over 500 parallel WRF simulations have been collected for analysis and verification. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA operational WRF runs to the SPORT experimental runs, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena for specific cases

The case of Food Lion versus ABC news: The anatomy of a public relations crisis and the use of counter-attack strategies

As the popularity of news magazine format television programs increase, companies can find themselves in the middle of a public relations crisis. Although a very attractive alternative, counter-attack public relations can be very dangerous and have serious repercussions if not handled properly

Returns to physician human capital: Evidence from patients randomized to physician teams

Physicians play a major role in determining the cost and quality of healthcare, yet estimates of these effects can be confounded by patient sorting. This paper considers a natural experiment where nearly 30,000 patients were randomly assigned to clinical teams from one of two academic institutions. One institution is among the top medical schools in the U.S., while the other institution is ranked lower in the distribution. Patients treated by the two programs have similar observable characteristics and have access to a single set of facilities and ancillary staff. Those treated by physicians from the higher ranked institution have 10–25% less expensive stays than patients assigned to the lower ranked institution. Health outcomes are not related to the physician team assignment. Cost differences are most pronounced for serious conditions, and they largely stem from diagnostic-testing rates: the lower ranked program tends to order more tests and takes longer to order them

VX Hydrolysis by Human Serum Paraoxonase 1: A Comparison of Experimental and Computational Results

Human Serum paraoxonase 1 (HuPON1) is an enzyme that has been shown to hydrolyze a variety of chemicals including the nerve agent VX. While wildtype HuPON1 does not exhibit sufficient activity against VX to be used as an in vivo countermeasure, it has been suggested that increasing HuPON1's organophosphorous hydrolase activity by one or two orders of magnitude would make the enzyme suitable for this purpose. The binding interaction between HuPON1 and VX has recently been modeled, but the mechanism for VX hydrolysis is still unknown. In this study, we created a transition state model for VX hydrolysis (VXts) in water using quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical simulations, and docked the transition state model to 22 experimentally characterized HuPON1 variants using AutoDock Vina. The HuPON1-VXts complexes were grouped by reaction mechanism using a novel clustering procedure. The average Vina interaction energies for different clusters were compared to the experimentally determined activities of HuPON1 variants to determine which computational procedures best predict how well HuPON1 variants will hydrolyze VX. The analysis showed that only conformations which have the attacking hydroxyl group of VXts coordinated by the sidechain oxygen of D269 have a significant correlation with experimental results. The results from this study can be used for further characterization of how HuPON1 hydrolyzes VX and design of HuPON1 variants with increased activity against VX.United States. Defense Threat Reduction Agenc