Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability

Until recently, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was considered a reliable source of winter precipitation predictability in the western US, with a historically strong link between extreme El Niño events and extremely wet seasons. However, the 2015–2016 El Niño challenged our understanding of the ENSO-precipitation relationship. California precipitation was near-average during the 2015–2016 El Niño, which was characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of similar magnitude compared to the extreme 1997–1998 and 1982–1983 El Niño events. We demonstrate that this precipitation response can be explained by El Niño’s spatial pattern, rather than internal atmospheric variability. In addition, observations and large-ensembles of regional and global climate model simulations indicate that extremes in seasonal and daily precipitation during strong El Niño events are better explained using the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which captures the diversity of ENSO’s spatial patterns in a single metric, compared to the traditional Niño3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in a fixed region and therefore fails to capture ENSO diversity. The physically-based ELI better explains western US precipitation variability because it tracks the zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection that drive teleconnections through the response in the extratropical wave-train, integrated vapor transport, and atmospheric rivers. This research provides evidence that ELI improves the value of ENSO as a predictor of California’s seasonal hydroclimate extremes compared to traditional ENSO indices, especially during strong El Niño events

Exploring the performance reserve: Effect of different magnitudes of power output deception on 4,000 m cycling time-trial performance

Purpose The aim of the present study was to investigate whether a magnitude of deception of 5% in power output would lead to a greater reduction in the amount of time taken for participants to complete a 4000 m cycling TT than a magnitude of deception of 2% in power output, which we have previously shown can lead to a small change in 4000 m cycling TT performance. Methods Ten trained male cyclists completed four, 4000 m cycling TTs. The first served as a habituation and the second as a baseline for future trials. During trials three and four participants raced against a pacer which was set, in a randomized order, at a mean power output equal to 2% (+2% TT) or 5% (+5% TT) higher than their baseline performance. However participants were misled into believing that the power output of the pacer was an accurate representation of their baseline performance on both occasions. Cardiorespiratory responses were recorded throughout each TT, and used to estimate energy contribution from aerobic and anaerobic metabolism. Results Participants were able to finish the +2% TT in a significantly shorter duration than at baseline (p = 0.01), with the difference in performance likely attributable to a greater anaerobic contribution to total power output (p = 0.06). There was no difference in performance between the +5% TT and +2% TT or baseline trials. Conclusions Results suggest that a performance reserve is conserved, involving anaerobic energy contribution, which can be utilised given a belief that the exercise will be sustainable however there is an upper limit to how much deception can be tolerated. These findings have implications for performance enhancement in athletes and for our understanding of the nature of fatigue during high-intensity exercise

Thermoelastic properties of magnesiowustite, (Mg1-xFex)O: determination of the Anderson-Gruneisen parameter by time-of-flight neutron powder diffraction at simultaneous high pressures and temperatures

The ability to perform neutron diffraction studies at simultaneous high pressures and high temperatures is a relatively recent development. The suitability of this technique for determining P-V-T equations of state has been investigated by measuring the lattice parameters of Mg1-xFexO ( x = 0.2, 0.3, 0.4), in the range P < 10.3 GPa and 300 < T < 986 K, by time-of-flight neutron powder diffraction. Pressures were determined using metallic Fe as a marker and temperatures were measured by neutron absorption resonance radiography. Within the resolution of the experiment, no evidence was found for any change in the temperature derivative of the isothermal incompressibility, partial derivative K-T/partial derivative T, with composition. By assuming that the equation-of-state parameters either varied linearly or were invariant with composition, the 60 measured state points were fitted simultaneously to a P-V-T-x equation of state, leading to values of partial derivative K-T/partial derivative T = -0.024 (9) GPa K-1 and of the isothermal Anderson-Gruneisen parameter delta(T) = 4.0 (16) at 300 K. Two designs of simultaneous high-P/T cell were employed during this study. It appears that, by virtue of its extended pressure range, a design using toroidal gaskets is more suitable for equation-of-state studies than is the system described by Le Godec, Dove, Francis, Kohn, Marshall, Pawley, Price, Redfern, Rhodes, Ross, Schofield, Schooneveld, Syfosse, Tucker & Welch [Mineral. Mag. (2001), 65, 737-748]. (c) 2008 International Union of Crystallography Printed in Singapore - all rights reserved

Coastal clustering of HEV; Cornwall, UK.

PublishedBACKGROUND AND AIMS: Autochthonous hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection is a porcine zoonosis and increasingly recognized in developed countries. In most cases the route of infection is uncertain. A previous study showed that HEV was associated geographically with pig farms and coastal areas. AIM: The aim of the present research was to study the geographical, environmental and social factors in autochthonous HEV infection. METHODS: Cases of HEV genotype 3 infection and controls were identified from 2047 consecutive patients attending a rapid-access hepatology clinic. For each case/control the following were recorded: distance from home to nearest pig farm, distance from home to coast, rainfall levels during the 8 weeks before presentation, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: A total of 36 acute hepatitis E cases, 170 age/sex-matched controls and 53 hepatitis controls were identified. The geographical spread of hepatitis E cases was not even when compared with both control groups. Cases were more likely to live within 2000 m of the coast (odds ratio=2.32, 95% confidence interval=1.08-5.19, P=0.03). There was no regional difference in the incidence of cases and controls between west and central Cornwall. There was no difference between cases and controls in terms of distance from the nearest pig farm, socioeconomic status or rainfall during the 8 weeks before disease presentation. CONCLUSION: Cases of HEV infection in Cornwall are associated with coastal residence. The reason for this observation is uncertain, but might be related to recreational exposure to beach areas exposed to HEV-contaminated 'run-off' from pig farms. This hypothesis merits further study.The European Centre for the Environment and Human Health (part of the Peninsula College of Medicine and Dentistry which is a joint entity of the University of Exeter, the University of Plymouth and the NHS in the South West) is supported by investment from the European Regional Development Fund and the European Social Fund Convergence Programme for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly

Comparing Diet and Exercise Monitoring Using Smartphone App and Paper Diary: A Two-Phase Intervention Study

Background: There is increasing recognition that personalized approaches may be more effective in helping people establish healthier eating patterns and exercise more, and that this approach may be particularly effective in adolescents. Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the use of a smartphone app (FoodWiz2) in supporting healthy lifestyle choices in adolescence. Methods: Participants (N=34: 11 male, 23 female) aged 16-19 years in full- or part-time education were recruited from sixth form colleges, schools, and other further education establishments in Norfolk and Suffolk, United Kingdom, between February and May 2015. Participants recorded food intake and exercise using a paper diary for 4-5 weeks and then used the app for the same duration. Initial nutrition education and general support were provided during the paper diary use, but the app included personalized messages sent in response to app activity. At the end of each study phase, participants completed an online questionnaire to describe their experience of using the paper diary and app. Results: Record completion declined throughout the study, possibly affected by examination pressure. Food intake data showed increased fruit consumption and significantly reduced consumption of chocolate snacks (P=.01) and fizzy drinks (P=.002) among participants using the app. Questionnaire responses indicated that the app was generally preferred to the paper diary, in particular, the app was seen as less boring to use (P=.03) and more acceptable in social settings (P<.001). Conclusions: This app-based approach has shown the potential for a more effective approach to improving adolescent diet and exercise levels

Inspiratory muscle warm-up does not improve cycling time-trial performance

Purpose: This study examined the effects of an active cycling warm-up, with and without the addition of an inspiratory muscle warm-up (IMW), on 10-km cycling time-trial performance

The prognosis of allocentric and egocentric neglect : evidence from clinical scans

We contrasted the neuroanatomical substrates of sub-acute and chronic visuospatial deficits associated with different aspects of unilateral neglect using computed tomography scans acquired as part of routine clinical diagnosis. Voxel-wise statistical analyses were conducted on a group of 160 stroke patients scanned at a sub-acute stage. Lesion-deficit relationships were assessed across the whole brain, separately for grey and white matter. We assessed lesions that were associated with behavioural performance (i) at a sub-acute stage (within 3 months of the stroke) and (ii) at a chronic stage (after 9 months post stroke). Allocentric and egocentric neglect symptoms at the sub-acute stage were associated with lesions to dissociated regions within the frontal lobe, amongst other regions. However the frontal lesions were not associated with neglect at the chronic stage. On the other hand, lesions in the angular gyrus were associated with persistent allocentric neglect. In contrast, lesions within the superior temporal gyrus extending into the supramarginal gyrus, as well as lesions within the basal ganglia and insula, were associated with persistent egocentric neglect. Damage within the temporo-parietal junction was associated with both types of neglect at the sub-acute stage and 9 months later. Furthermore, white matter disconnections resulting from damage along the superior longitudinal fasciculus were associated with both types of neglect and critically related to both sub-acute and chronic deficits. Finally, there was a significant difference in the lesion volume between patients who recovered from neglect and patients with chronic deficits. The findings presented provide evidence that (i) the lesion location and lesion size can be used to successfully predict the outcome of neglect based on clinical CT scans, (ii) lesion location alone can serve as a critical predictor for persistent neglect symptoms, (iii) wide spread lesions are associated with neglect symptoms at the sub-acute stage but only some of these are critical for predicting whether neglect will become a chronic disorder and (iv) the severity of behavioural symptoms can be a useful predictor of recovery in the absence of neuroimaging findings on clinical scans. We discuss the implications for understanding the symptoms of the neglect syndrome, the recovery of function and the use of clinical scans to predict outcome

Increasing condom use in heterosexual men: development of a theory-based interactive digital intervention

Increasing condom use to prevent sexually transmitted infections is a key public health goal. Interventions are more likely to be effective if they are theory- and evidence-based. The Behaviour Change Wheel (BCW) provides a framework for intervention development. To provide an example of how the BCW was used to develop an intervention to increase condom use in heterosexual men (the MenSS website), the steps of the BCW intervention development process were followed, incorporating evidence from the research literature and views of experts and the target population. Capability (e.g. knowledge) and motivation (e.g. beliefs about pleasure) were identified as important targets of the intervention. We devised ways to address each intervention target, including selecting interactive features and behaviour change techniques. The BCW provides a useful framework for integrating sources of evidence to inform intervention content and deciding which influences on behaviour to target

Epistemic and Ontic Quantum Realities

Quantum theory has provoked intense discussions about its interpretation since its pioneer days. One of the few scientists who have been continuously engaged in this development from both physical and philosophical perspectives is Carl Friedrich von Weizsaecker. The questions he posed were and are inspiring for many, including the authors of this contribution. Weizsaecker developed Bohr's view of quantum theory as a theory of knowledge. We show that such an epistemic perspective can be consistently complemented by Einstein's ontically oriented position