Beyond Random Assignment: Credible Inference and Extrapolation in Dynamic Economies

We derive analytical relationships between shock responses and theory‐implied causal effects (comparative statics) in dynamic settings with linear profits and linear‐quadratic stock accumulation costs. For permanent profitability shocks, responses can have incorrect signs, undershoot, or overshoot depending on the size and sign of realized changes. For profitability shocks that are i.i.d., uniformly distributed, binary, or unanticipated and temporary, there is attenuation bias, which exceeds 50% under plausible parameterizations. We derive a novel sufficient condition for profitability shock responses to equal causal effects: martingale profitability. We establish a battery of sufficient conditions for correct sign estimation, including stochastic monotonicity. Simple extrapolation/error correction formulae are presented

Regional State Aid Control in Europe: A Legal and Economic Assessment

This paper provides a legal and economic analysis of the European rules for regional State aid according to Article 107 (1) and (3) TFEU. It summarizes the historical evolution and the trends of regional aid rules and describes the economic rationale behind them. The main principles are discussed with reference to recent academic research, leading cases and the State Aid Modernization initiative ("SAM"). The current rules for the assessment of compatibility as laid down in the General Block Exemption and the Regional Aid Guidelines 2014 are critically reviewed in light of these principles

A Dynamic Model of the Firm: Structural Explanations of Key Empirical Findings

SSRN-id28380957We derive a dynamic model of the rm in the spirit of the trade-o¤ theory of capital structure that explains rm behavior in terms of rm characteristics. We show our model is consistent with many important ndings about the cross-section of rms, including the negative relations between pro tability and leverage, and between dividends and investment-cash ow sensitivities. The model also explains the existence of zero-debt rms and their observed characteristics. These results have been used to challenge the trade-o¤ theory and the assumption of perfect capital markets. We revisit these critiques and provide structural explanations for the regularities we replicate

Empirical analysis of corporate tax reforms: what is the null and where did it come from?

Absent theoretical guidance, empiricists have been forced to rely upon numerical comparative statics from constant tax rate models in formulating testable implications of tradeoff theory in the context of natural experiments. We fill the theoretical void by solving in closed-form a dynamic tradeoff theoretic model in which corporate taxes follow a Markov process with exogenous rate changes. We simulate ideal difference-in-differences estimations, finding that constant tax rate models offer poor guidance regarding testable implications. While constant rate models predict large symmetric responses to rate changes, our model with stochastic tax rates predicts small, asymmetric, and often statistically insignificant responses. Even with very long regimes (one decade), under plausible parameterizations, the true underlying theory—that taxes matter—is incorrectly rejected in about half the simulated natural experiments. Moreover, tax response coefficients are actually smaller in simulated economies with larger tax-induced welfare losses