Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems

Automakers are now developing alternatives to internal combustion engines (ICE), including hydrogen fuel cells and ICE-electric hybrids. Adoption dynamics for alternative vehicles are complex due to the enormous size and importance of the auto industry and vehicle fleet. Diffusion of alternative vehicles is both enabled and constrained by powerful positive feedbacks arising from scale and scope economies, R&D, learning by doing, driver experience, word of mouth, and complementary resources such as fueling infrastructure. We describe a dynamic model of the diffusion and competition among alternative fuel vehicles, including the coevolution of the fleet, technology, driver behavior, and complementary resources. Here we focus on the generation of consumer awareness of alternatives through feedback from driving experience, word of mouth and marketing, with a reduced form treatment of network effects and other positive feedbacks (which we treat in other papers). We demonstrate the existence of a critical threshold for sustained adoption of alternative technologies, and show how the threshold depends on economic and behavioral parameters. We show that word of mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is important in stimulating diffusion. Nevertheless, marketing and subsidies for alternatives to ICE must remain in place for long periods for diffusion to become self-sustaining. Expanding the model boundary to include endogenous learning, technological spillovers and spatial coevolution of fueling infrastructure adds additional feedbacks that further suppress the diffusion of alternative vehicles

Constructing brand loyalty via social networks

Includes bibliographical references.Identifying the construction of brand loyalty via social networks requires an analysis of the information sharing of a product or brand amongst a social network, therefore indicating the strength of the brand loyalty members of a social network not only have towards a brand, but also promote to other members of the same social network. This exchange of information amongst social network members is called ‘homophily’, where “similarity breeds connection” (McPherson, 2001, p.415). In order to determine the strength of brand loyalty amongst a social network, a qualitative study was performed on a sample of consumers from the ‘digital age’ generation (Castells, 2010, p.xviii), examining the extent of information exchange via social media as well as via the social networks. In addition to this a minor case study was conducted where participants were asked a serious of questions that pertained to a specific brand, that of Woolworths. This was done in order to determine the strength of the brand loyalty they had for a particular brand that may then be theoretically applied on a general scale. As a result the strength of their brand loyalty was determined, indicating whether or not brand loyalty can be constructed via social networks. On the whole it can be determined that social networks play a strong role in the development of brand loyalty, particularly as it pertains to the current digital generation. Keywords: Social Network, Habitus, Purchase Behaviour, Networked Society, Brand Loyalty, Consumer satisfaction, Homophily, Brand Trustworthines

Policy insights and modelling challenges: The case of passenger car powertrain technology transition in the European Union

Purpose: We are interested in what policy insights can be transferred from EU countries that have been most successful in introducing EVs to those that are debating policy options. As we use a model to explore this, we are also interested in the application of modelling, seeking to understand if real world policies and results can be replicated in a model and, more generally, the challenges to the use of modelling in policy appraisal. Methods: We use the EC-JRC Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM), a system dynamics model based around the interactions of conceptual market agent groups in the EU. We perform iterative scenario tests to replicate the policies carried out in the Netherlands and the UK in recent years in an attempt to achieve similar results in EV sales. We then transfer the policy scenarios to other EU member states and assess the transferability of the policies. Results: Reasonable approximations of the Netherlands and UK EV policies and sales were achieved and implemented in other EU member states. Conclusion: We find that the PTTMAM is fit-for-purpose and can replicate successful policies to a certain degree. Policy success is sensitive to country specific conditions, and a system dynamics model like the PTTMAM can help identify which conditions react to which policy stimulus. There are challenges to modelling in policy appraisal, such as the subjectivity of the modeller and flexibility to specific conditions, which must be kept transparent for the model to be a relevant tool for policy making

Nasal nitric oxide: methodology, normal values and potential clinical applications

Nasaal stikstofoxide (NO) is een gas dat in hoge concentraties in de neus en neusbijholten aanwezig is. De concentraties NO worden beinvloed door verschillende luchtweg aandoeningen. In navolging van de succesvolle toepassing van NO metingen in de longen bij zowel het diagnosticeren als monitoren van therapie bij astma is het idee dat nasaal NO een rol zou kunnen spelen in de diagnostiek van bovenste luchtwegaandoeningen. Om dit idee te toetsen is in dit proefschrift de methodologie rondom het meten van nasaal NO onderzocht. Vervolgens zijn normaalwaarden voor nasaal NO vastgesteld en is gekeken wat de effecten van neusallergie, neuspoliepen en cystische fibrose op de NO concentraties in de neus zijn. Nasaal NO wordt gemeten door een NO inerte olijf tegen één neusgat te plaatsen. Vervolgens wordt gedurende 10 seconden de adem ingehouden en wordt tegelijkertijd met een bepaalde snelheid lucht uit de neus onttrokken. De meting kan ook uitgevoerd worden terwijl er 10 seconden wordt "gezoemt" (fonatie van een "mâ"). Tijdens zoemen neemt de hoeveelheid gemeten NO fors toe (piek concentratie) tenopzichte van het meten zonder zoemen. De hypothese is dat de piek een maat is voor de doorgankelijkheid van de neus naar de neusbijholten. Het meten van nasaal NO is eenvoudig en snel. De metingen zijn reproduceerbaar en kunnen het best worden uitgevoerd met een (onttrekkings)snelheid van 700 ml/min. De gemiddelde nasale NO concentratie neemt bij kinderen tot 12 jaar toe tot ongeveer 450 ppb (parts per billion). Daarna blijft de concentratie constant. Bij kinderen jonger dan 12 is nasaal NO afhankelijk van het wel of niet hebben gehad van een adenotomie (verwijdering neusamandel). Bij volwassenen is de gemiddelde piek NO waarde tijdens zoemen 1019 ppb. Een neusallergie lijkt de concentratie nasaal NO te verhogen vergeleken met gezonde volwassenen, ook tijdens zoemen. De verschillen zijn echter niet statistisch significant. Neuspoliepen en cystische fibrose daarentegen verlagen de nasale NO concentraties zowel met, als zonder, zoemen. Nasaal NO gemeten tijdens zoemen is bij mensen met cystische fibrose zelfs beter in staat om onderscheid te maken tussen gezonde mensen en de mensen met cystische fibrose. Het is niet duidelijk is of nasaal NO metingen een bijdrage kunnen leveren in het diagnostische pad van allergische rhinitis. Dit in tegenstelling tot metingen bij patiënten met neuspoliepen of cystische fibrose. De gevonden resultaten bij die patiëntengroepen suggereren dat nasaal NO de potentie heeft een waardevolle rol te vervullen in de diagnostiek en/of het monitoren van beide aandoeningen

Collective action and market formation: An integrative framework

Research Summary : While extant research recognizes the importance of collective action for market formation, it provides little understanding about when and to what extent collective action is important. In this article, we develop a novel theoretical framework detailing what collective action problems and solutions arise in market formation and under what conditions. Our framework centers on the development of market infrastructure with three key factors that influence the nature and extent of collective action problems: perceived returns to contributions, excludability, and contribution substitutability. We apply our framework to diverse market formation contexts and derive a set of attendant propositions. Finally, we show how collective action problems and solutions evolve during market formation efforts and discuss how our framework contributes to strategic management, entrepreneurship, and organization literatures. Managerial Summary : This article lays out the key considerations that players operating in new markets should contemplate when making nontrivial investments in those spaces. As collective action problems can thwart efforts to establish new markets, we ask: When and under what conditions should market players collaborate rather than act independently? And if players collaborate, how should they coordinate to establish a new market? To address these research questions, we develop a novel generalizable framework of collective action in market formation. Our framework assesses the presence and type of collective action problems that hinder market formation and identifies potential solutions tied to those collective action problems

The Diffusion of Complex Market Technologies: Multifaceted Dynamics for Alternative Fuel Vehicles

This paper develops initial steps towards a framework for understanding factors that condition success and failure of complex market technologies. Dynamics of such technologies are conditioned by coevolutionary processes including the development of the installed base, consumer behavior, technologies, complementarities and interlinked supply chains. This paper analyzes diffusion patterns, including failures and successes, of alternative transportation fuel (ATF) and vehicle introductions, natural gas in New Zealand and Argentina, and ethanol in Brazil. I analyze the diffusion patterns of retrospective AFV introductions, failures and successes, through a behavioral dynamic simulation model. I characterize technology diffusion as a process of market formation which requires overcoming a period of fragility. During such a period at least one of the mechanisms conditioning its diffusion works against further spreading. Aggressive, simple strategies to overcome thresholds tend to fail. However, high potential strategies involve policy portfolios that are sustained, synchronized across multiple types of decision makers, and dynamic. Further, the efforts and their duration required to overcome this stage are strongly influenced by institutional and historical contexts. More broadly, the findings provide the groundwork for a framework to analyze processes of market formation for complex technologies. Such a framework involves capturing the fundamental mechanisms cutting across inter-organizational fields, but also includes important system-physiological aspects. Within this framework the traditional S-shaped diffusion curve is a special case with ex-ante usefulness confined to conditions of low market complexity and favorable institutional conditions. We discuss implications for policy and strategy

Nurses' self-regulated learning in clinical wards:Important insights for nurse educators from a multi-method research study

Central in nurse education curricula stands the preparation of future nurses to work in quickly evolving, dynamic, clinical wards. Learning in the flow of work plays a pivotal role in initial nurse education, but also during continuous professional development. To drive their ongoing development, nurses need competency in self-regulation of learning (SRL). Despite the importance of SRL in the clinical workplace for all (future) healthcare professionals, research on self-regulated workplace learning (SRwpL) of nurses and future nurses in clinical wards is underdeveloped. This study aims to enhance the conceptual understanding of SRwpL strategies and practices in clinical nursing wards and to offer insights for designing effective educational interventions supporting the facilitation and development of (future) nurses' SRwpL in the clinical ward. A multi-actor, multi-method perspective was adopted to qualitatively investigate SRwpL strategies nurses engaged in. Nurses were observed and interviewed, but also professionals responsible for ongoing development in clinical wards (the ward's head nurses and learning counselors) were interviewed. The data collection took place before the COVID pandemic. Results reveal self-regulatory strategies conditional for SRwpL in addition to strategies initiating, progressing, and evaluating the learning process. Head nurses and learning counselors report a lack of these conditional strategies and little variation, and sporadic engagement in all other self-regulatory strategies. To enhance (future) nurses' SRwpL, we suggest that clinical supervisors from educational institutions could exert a lasting influence by not only educating student nurses, but also fostering further professional development of counselors and head nurses to scaffold the SRwpL processes of future nurses in clinical wards.</p

Essays on transition challenges for alternative propulsion vehicles and transportation systems

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 2006.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Includes bibliographical references.Technology transitions require the formation of a self-sustaining market through alignment of consumers' interests, producers' capabilities, infrastructure development, and regulations. In this research I develop a broad behavioral dynamic model of the prospective transition to alternative fuel vehicles. In Essay one I focus on the premise that automobile purchase decisions are strongly shaped by cultural norms, personal experience, and social interactions. To capture these factors, I examine important social processes conditioning alternative vehicle diffusion, including the generation of consumer awareness through feedback from driving experience, word of mouth and marketing. Through analysis of a simulation model I demonstrate the existence of a critical threshold for the sustained adoption of alternative technologies, and show how the threshold depends on behavioral, economic and physical system parameters. Word-of-mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is important in stimulating diffusion. Further, I show that marketing and subsidies for alternatives must remain in place for long periods for diffusion to become self-sustaining.(cont.) Results are supported with an analysis of the transition to the horseless carriage at the turn of the 19th century. In the second Essay I explore the co-evolutionary interdependence between alternative fuel vehicle demand and the requisite refueling infrastructure. The analysis is based on a dynamic behavioral model with an explicit spatial structure. I find, first, a bi-stable, low demand equilibrium with urban adoption clusters. Further, the diffusion of more fuel efficient vehicles, optimal for the long run, is less likely to succeed, illustrating the existence of trade-offs between the goals of the early stage transition, and those of the long-run equilibrium. Several other feedbacks that significantly influence dynamics including, supply and demand, and supply-coordination behaviors, are discussed. In Essay three I examine how technology learning and spillovers impact technology trajectories of competing incumbents - hybrid and radical entrants. I develop a technology lifecycle model, with an emphasis on technology heterogeneity. In the model, spillovers can flow to the market leader and can be asymmetric across technologies. find that the existence of learning and spillover dynamics greatly increases path dependence. Interaction effects with other feedbacks, such as scale economies, are very strong. Further, superior radical technologies may fail, even when introduced simultaneously with inferior hybrid technologies.(cont.) I find that the existence of learning and spillover dynamics greatly increases path dependence. Interaction effects with other feedbacks, such as scale economies, are very strong. Further, superior radical technologies may fail, even when introduced simultaneously with inferior hybrid technologies.by Jeroen J.R. Struben.Ph.D

Assessing the economic performance of an environmental sustainable supply chain in reducing environmental externalities

This study investigates the mechanism that motivates supply chain firms to reduce environmental ex- ternalities while balancing the economic feasibility of the supply chain system under environmentally constrained circumstances in a competitive market. Taking government policy incentives into account, a quantitative model of an integrated supply chain that incorporates sustainable constraints is formu- lated to optimize supply chain firms’ operational strategies of producing environmental friendly products (EFPs). This study contributes to the literature with a better understanding the interplay and interrelation of multiple sustainable constraints and their impact on supply chain firms’ collaborative decisions. Our findings suggest that the decisions of operating EFPs are subject to sustainable constraints and that the government policy incentives play a dominant role overseeing supply chain firms’ environmental behav- iors toward sustainability