Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Effect of background loads on the perception of added loads to breathing

Using open-magnitude scaling, we compared the perceived magnitude of externally added resistive and elastic loads to breathing in normal subjects with that perceived when the background load (i.e., the minimum load of the circuit) was increased by the addition of either resistive or elastic loads of increasing magnitude. The study was carried out over four experimental sessions. After a control experiment (no added background load), the background load was increased by the addition of either a resistive or an elastic load for a duration of 3 min. The perceived magnitude of a further series of loads, proportionately increased, was then ascertained. This sequence was then repeated after a further increase in background. The results showed that the perceived magnitude of the load was closely related [mean r = 0.96 +/- 0.01 (SE)] to the magnitude of the physical stimulus expressed as the peak inspiratory pressure by a power function relationship in keeping with Stevens' law. After the increases in background resistance or elastance, there were no significant differences in either exponents or intercepts compared with basal conditions. There was no significant difference in the perceived magnitude of the loads after adaptation. At the smallest load, the perceived magnitude was less than expected from the control experiment. However, this reduction did not reach statistical significance. In the special senses, moderate-to-large stimuli show little change after adaptation, whereas small stimuli are reduced. Although not conclusive, we suggest that the relationship is similar with loaded breathing. </jats:p

Pulmonary mechanics during exercise in normal males

A body plethysmograph adapted to contain the pedals of an electrically braked cycle ergometer was used to measure pulmonary mechanics during steady-state exercise in 12 normal male subjects aged 22-65 yr. During exercise there was a progressive increase in residual volume to 119% of the value at rest (P less than 0.01), but functional residual capacity and total lung capacity did not change. The maximum expiratory flow-volume (MEFV) curves did not change and flow rates during tidal breathing did not exceed the MEFV curve. Dynamic pulmonary compliance fell to 91.3% of the control value and static expiratory pulmonary compliance fell to 76.9% of the control value (P less than 0.05). Pulmonary resistance did not change during exercise. Transpulmonary pressure during tidal breathing was negative even at the highest power outputs. The fall in compliance may be due to an increase in pulmonary capillary blood volume. These results demonstrate the importance of measuring absolute thoracic gas volume and the elastic properties of the lung when comparing pulmonary mechanics at rest and during exercise. </jats:p