Predicting Outcomes in Investment Treaty Arbitration

Crafting appropriate dispute settlement processes is challenging for any conflict-management system, particularly for politically sensitive international economic law disputes. As the United States negotiates investment treaties with Asian and European countries, the terms of dispute settlement have become contentious. There is a vigorous debate about whether investment treaty arbitration (ITA) is an appropriate dispute settlement mechanism. While some sing the praises of ITA, others offer a spirited critique. Some critics claim that ITA is biased against states, while others suggest ITA is predictable but unfair due to factors like arbitrator identity or venue. Using data from 159 final cases derived from 272 publicly available ITA awards, this Article examines outcomes of ITA cases to explore those concerns. Key descriptive findings demonstrate that states reliably won a greater proportion of cases than investors; and for the subset of cases investors won, the mean award was US$45.6 million with mean investor success rate of 35%. State success rates were roughly similar to respondent-favorable or state-favorable results in whistleblowing, qui tam, and medical-malpractice litigation in U.S. courts. The Article then explores whether ITA outcomes varied depending upon investor identity, state identity, the presence of repeat-player counsel, arbitrator-related, or venue variables. Models using case-based variables always predicted outcomes whereas arbitrator-venue models did not. The results provide initial evidence that the most critical variables for predicting outcomes involved some form of investor identity and the experience of parties’ lawyers. For investor identity, the most robust predictor was whether investors were human beings, with cases brought by people exhibiting greater success than corporations; and when at least one named investor or corporate parent was ranked in the Financial Times 500, investors sometimes secured more favorable outcomes. Following Marc Galanter’s scholarship demonstrating that repeat-player lawyers are critical to litigation outcomes, attorney experience also affected ITA outcomes. Investors with experienced counsel were more likely to obtain a damage award against a state, whereas states retaining experienced counsel were only reliably associated with decreased levels of relative investor success. Although there was variation in outcomes, ultimately, the data did not support a conclusion that ITA was completely unpredictable; rather, the results called into question some critiques of ITA and did not prove that ITA is a wholly unacceptable form of dispute settlement. Instead, the results suggest the vital debate about ITA’s future would be well served by focusing on evidence-based insights and reliance on data rather than nonreplicable intuition

International Investment Arbitration: Winning, Losing and Why

This perspective reviews recent empirical research about investment treaty arbitration in order to help create a more accurate framework for policy choices and dispute-resolution strategies

国际投资仲裁：胜诉、败诉及其原因

本文回顾了最近有关投资条约仲裁的实证研究，目的是为了帮助创建一个更准确的政策选择和争端解决的战略框架

High efficiency thermoelectric power generation using Zintl-type materials

The invention disclosed herein relates to thermoelectrically-active p-type Zintl phase materials as well as devices utilizing such compounds. Such thermoelectric materials and devices may be used to convert thermal energy into electrical energy, or use electrical energy to produce heat or refrigeration. Embodiments of the invention relate to p-type thermoelectric materials related to the compound Yb.sub.14MnSb.sub.11

Yb14MnSb11 as a High-Efficiency Thermoelectric Material

Yb14MnSb11 has been found to be wellsuited for use as a p-type thermoelectric material in applications that involve hotside temperatures in the approximate range of 1,200 to 1,300 K. The figure of merit that characterizes the thermal-to-electric power-conversion efficiency is greater for this material than for SiGe, which, until now, has been regarded as the state-of-the art high-temperature ptype thermoelectric material. Moreover, relative to SiGe, Yb14MnSb11 is better suited to incorporation into a segmented thermoelectric leg that includes the moderate-temperature p-type thermoelectric material CeFe4Sb12 and possibly other, lower-temperature p-type thermoelectric materials. Interest in Yb14MnSb11 as a candidate high-temperature thermoelectric material was prompted in part by its unique electronic properties and complex crystalline structure, which place it in a class somewhere between (1) a class of semiconducting valence compounds known in the art as Zintl compounds and (2) the class of intermetallic compounds. From the perspective of chemistry, this classification of Yb14MnSb11 provides a first indication of a potentially rich library of compounds, the thermoelectric properties of which can be easily optimized. The concepts of the thermoelectric figure of merit and the thermoelectric compatibility factor are discussed in Compatibility of Segments of Thermo - electric Generators (NPO-30798), which appears on page 55. The traditional thermoelectric figure of merit, Z, is defined by the equation Z = alpha sup 2/rho K, where alpha is the Seebeck coefficient, rho is the electrical resistivity, and k is the thermal conductivity

Intra-household use and acceptability of Ready-to-Use-Supplementary-Foods distributed in Niger between July and December 2010.

Few studies have looked at consumption of Ready-to-Use-Supplementary-Foods (RUSFs) during a nutritional emergency. Here, we describe the use and acceptability of RUSF within households in four districts of the region of Maradi, Niger during large scale preventive distributions with RUSF in 2010 targeted at children 6-35months of age. Our study comprised both quantitative and qualitative components to collect detailed information and to allow in-depth interviews. We performed a cross-sectional survey in 16 villages between two monthly distributions of RUSF (October-November 2010). All households with at least one child who received RUSF were included and a total of 1842 caregivers were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Focus groups and individual interviews of 128 caregivers were conducted in eight of the selected villages. On average, 24.7% of households reported any sharing of RUSF within the household. Sharing practices outside the household remained rare. Most of the sharing reported occurred among children under 5years of age living in the household. On average, 91% of caregivers in all districts rated the child's appreciation of the products as good or very good. Program planning may need to explicitly accounting for the sharing of products among children under 5 within household

Reforming World Bank Dispute Resolution: ICSID in Context

During a tumultuous moment in history with shifts in power and politics, international dispute settlement stands at a crossroads. In theory, international dispute settlement should not institutionalize abuses of power, rely upon a monolithic one-size-fits-all model, or be a waste of resources, which will inevitably generate stakeholder dissatisfaction. Rather, dispute resolution should reflect both a commitment to the rule of law and equal treatment that sustains nuanced, fair, and just procedures most likely to provide results of substantive quality. Against this backdrop and with the major reforms concluded in July 2022, this article explores the reality of dispute resolution at the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (“ICSID”) using an evidence-based, historical lens. Rather than distort ICSID’s past to offer cognitive ease, this article uses primary sources to understand dispute resolution at the World Bank and the broader implications for international dispute settlement and alternative dispute resolution. Using an evidence-based, historical lens to promote an accurate understanding of procedural and substantive distinctions, international investment law and international dispute resolution can facilitate accurate, useful, and responsive reform, rather than letting myopia, manipulation, and mismanaged expectations control the future of international dispute settlement

An Empirical Analysis of Investment Treaty Awards

I. INTRODUCTION Earlier speakers offered insights about investment law and its implications for the future of domestic administrative law and international law. To bring us full circle, I will discuss where we are today so that we can consider where we want development law to be tomorrow. In pursuit of that goal, I offer empirical data related to investment treaty arbitration. My goal today is to focus on three claims about investment treaty arbitration and consider the data\u27s potential implications

The Liability of International Arbitrators: A Comparative Analysis and Proposal for Qualified Immunity

With the advent of the global economy and the increasing number of international commercial transactions, arbitration has become an important dispute resolution option. Arbitration is traditionally extolled because it helps to resolve commercial disputes economically, confidentially, and finally within a neutral forum.\u27 Additionally, unlike national court judgments, arbitration provides an internationally recognized method for enforcing awards.\u27 As a result of these benefits, arbitration is now the preferred dispute resolution mechanism for international commercial disagreements. Unfortunately, because of perceived misconduct by arbitrators and the risk of party manipulation, the arbitration process has come under increasing attack through civil actions against arbitrators

Challenges Facing Investment Disputes: Reconsidering Dispute Resolution in International Investment Agreements

International investment and international investment agreements have experienced a particular level of growth in the past few decades. With that growth and the granting of affirmative dispute resolution rights to foreign investors, international investment conflict has become increasingly highlighted; and one particular methodology - namely investment treaty arbitration - has become particularly visible. Reliance on this single option for resolving conflict has a unique set of systemic implications. This chapter therefore takes a more systemic look at investment treaty conflict and, in an effort to provide an appropriate historical and doctrinal framework, approaches to dispute resolution broadly. It asks for a reconsideration of Appropriate Dispute Resolution (ADR) methods for resolving investment treaty conflict and highlights the costs and benefits of particularized dispute resolution methods, including preventative, negotiated, facilitated, fact-finding, advisory and imposed ADR mechanisms. The chapter ultimately argues that, while arbitration has utility, the challenge for the future will be to move beyond investment treaty arbitration to a more holistic approach to conflict management that considers other opportunities, particularly the collaborative design of sustainable dispute resolution systems.https://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/facsch_bk_contributions/1232/thumbnail.jp