Consumption and Differential Mortality

It is well-established that differential mortality according to wealth or income introduces bias into age profiles of these variables when estimated on cross-sectional or synthetic cohort data. However, little is known about whether this association is also found with consumption, and if so, how strong this association is. In this paper we use panel data on total household spending from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and its supplemental study, the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey (CAMS), to estimate differences in consumption by survival status to the next survey wave. We quantify the bias in age profiles of consumption that results from differential mortality when estimating the age profiles on cross-sectional data or on synthetic cohort data. We find that the bias is smaller than that found for wealth or income.

Alternative Measures of Replacement Rates

This study finds that on average those just past the usual retirement age are adequately prepared for retirement in that they will be able to follow a path of consumption that begins at their current level of consumption and then follows an age-pattern similar to that of current retirees. That pattern is similar to what would be found from a theoretically derived and estimated life-cycle model. Thus we do not find inadequate preparation for retirement on average or even at the median. This is not true, however, for all groups in the population. In particular, singles lacking a high school education are likely to be forced to reduce consumption: some 62% would have died with negative wealth had they followed the consumption path given by our data. Future research will show the extent to which this percentage is over-estimated because we did not account for differential mortality.

Individuals’ Responses to Social Security Reform

The Social Security trust fund is predicted to be depleted by 2041. While there are several viable reform proposals to restore long-term solvency of the Social Security system, one important element that is critical to the success of any reform remains unknown: how will individuals respond to, for example, a cut of their Social Security benefits. Will they work longer or save more or both, and to what extent will their response make up for the cut in benefits? In this paper we use data from the HRS Internet Survey where we asked respondents directly what they would do if everyone’s Social Security benefits were cut by 30 percent. At a qualitative level, we find important differences in the response by sex, marital status, and SES, among others. We conduct a detailed quantitative analysis of response to timing of Social security claiming and find that on average individuals would postpone claiming Social Security by 1.13 years. If this time was spent working by everyone then the annual Social Security benefit would drop on average by 20 percent rather than the initial 30 percent imposed by the reform. In other words the response to claim later and work longer would make up for one third of the initial cut in Social Security benefits.

Consumption and Economic Well-Being at Older Ages: Income- and Consumption-Based Poverty Measures in the HRS

According to economic theory, well-being or utility depends on consumption. However, at the household level, total consumption is rarely well measured because its collection requires a great deal of survey time. As a result income has been widely used to assess well-being and poverty rates. Yet, because households can use wealth to consume more than income, so an income-based measure of well-being could yield misleading results for many households. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study to find income-based poverty rates which we compare with poverty rates as measured in the Current Population Survey. We use HRS consumption data to calculate a consumption-based poverty rate and study the relationship between income-based and consumption-based poverty measures. We find that a poverty rate based on consumption is lower than an income-based poverty rate. Particularly noteworthy is the much lower rate among the oldest single persons such as widows. The explanation for the difference is the ability to consume out of wealth.

The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Anticipated and Actual Declines in Spending at Retirement

The simple one-good model of life-cycle consumption requires “consumption smoothing.” However, British and U.S. households apparently reduce consumption at retirement and the reduction cannot be explained by the life-cycle model. An interpretation is that retirees are surprised by the inadequacy of resources. This interpretation challenges the life-cycle model where consumers are forward looking. However, data on anticipated consumption changes at retirement and on realized consumption changes following retirement show that the reductions are fully anticipated. Apparently the decline is due to the cessation of workrelated expenses and the substitution of home production for market-purchased goods and services.

Self-Assessed Retirement Outcomes: Determinants and Pathways

There is increasing interest among policy makers in measuring well-being in ways that go beyond purely economic indicators, also with special focus on older individuals who constitute an increasing fraction of the population. However there is little consensus on which other indicators should be included. An alternative approach is to use individuals’ own assessments and relate these to a rich set of covariates to find what factors influence individuals’ own perceptions. This is the approach adopted in this paper, using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Retired respondents are asked how satisfying their retirement has turned out to be, how retirement years compare to pre-retirement years and whether they are worried about not having enough income to get by in retirement. I relate these self-assessed measures to a rich set of covariates to investigate which aspects weigh in individuals’ perceptions. I use the longitudinal nature of the HRS to study the pathways that lead up to the observed retirement outcomes, and to examine the persistence of the outcomes over time. Bad health, changes towards worse health, social isolation and increase in social isolation lead most significantly to lower satisfaction in retirement and a greater sense of financial insecurity in retirement. A short financial planning horizon and past shocks, like unexpected large expenses or divorce, also have a noticeable negative impact.

Long-term climatology of air mass transport through the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) during NH winter

A long-term climatology of air mass transport through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is presented, covering the period from 1962–2005. The transport through the TTL is calculated with a Lagrangian approach using radiative heating rates as vertical velocities in an isentropic trajectory model. We demonstrate the improved performance of such an approach compared to previous studies using vertical winds from meteorological analyses. Within the upper part of the TTL, the averaged diabatic ascent is 0.5 K/day during Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters 1992–2001. Climatological maps show a cooling and strengthening of this part of the residual circulation during the 1990s and early 2000s compared to the long-term mean. Lagrangian cold point (LCP) fields show systematic differences for varying time periods and natural forcing components. The interannual variability of LCP temperature and density fields is found to be influenced by volcanic eruptions, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the solar cycle. The coldest and driest TTL is reached during QBO easterly phase and La Niña over the western Pacific, whereas during volcanic eruptions, El Niño and QBO westerly phase it is warmer and less dry

The Effects of the Financial Crisis on Actual and Anticipated Consumption

We studied how households adjust their spending in response to the financial crisis. Based on five waves of data from the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey, we quantified the reduction in total consumption and in specific categories of consumption in the older population at large and by stock ownership, both as a proxy for wealth and to test assumptions about whether stock ownership was associated with different responses. In particular, we compared consumption changes between 2007 and 2009 with consumption changes over prior years. We used panel data on anticipated changes in spending at retirement to quantify the effects of the financial crisis on well-being in retirement via a difference-in-differences approach.

Forecasting Labor Force Participation and Economic Resources of the Early Baby Boomers

This paper forecasts the retirement patterns and resources of the Early Baby Boomers by estimating forward-looking dynamic models of labor force participation, wealth accumulation and pension and Social Security benefit claiming for older workers using seven waves of HRSdata. The two most important innovations of our proposed approach are the use of alternative measures of pension entitlements and the associated incentives, and accounting for subjective expectations about future work. Our main findings are that the Early Baby Boomers will work longer and claim Social Security later.

Economic Well-Being at Older Ages: Income- and Consumption-Based Poverty Measures in the HRS

According to economic theory, well-being or utility depends on consumption. However, at the household level, total consumption is rarely measured because its collection requires a great deal of survey time. As a result income has been widely used to assess economic well-being and poverty rates. Yet, because households can use wealth to consume more than income, an income-based measure of well-being could yield misleading results for many households, especially at older ages. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study to find income-based poverty rates which we compare with poverty rates as measured in the Current Population Survey. We use HRS consumption data to calculate a consumption-based poverty rate and study the relationship between income-based and consumption-based poverty measures. We find that the poverty rate based on consumption is lower than the income-based poverty rate. Particularly noteworthy is the much lower rate among the oldest single persons such as widows. The explanation for the difference is the ability to consume out of wealth.