Coverage probability bias, objective Bayes and the likelihood principle

We review objective Bayes procedures based on both parametric and predictive coverage probability bias and explore the extent to which such procedures contravene the likelihood principle in the case of a scalar parameter. The discussion encompasses choice of objective priors, objective posterior probability statements and objective predictive probability statements. We conclude with some remarks concerning the future development and implementation of objective priors based on small coverage probability bias

Modelling the cohort effect in CBD models using a piecewise linear approach

This paper discusses a new pattern of mortality model which is built on the form and knowledge of the two-factor mortality model named after its designers Cairns, Blake and Dowd (2006). This model – the CBD model – is widely used and has been extended by the authors in a number of ways, including by the use of a cohort effect. In this paper, we propose a range of new parsimonious approaches to model the cohort effect. Instead of adding a cohort factor to an age-period model we model the effect by building discontinuities into the pattern of rates within each year. The fit of the resulting models is close to that available from the best of the CBD derivatives

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Social Death

This review will outline various ways in which the notion of 'social death’ can be understood, and how they can be related to clinical practice. The idea of social death is used to analytically represent how someone can be identified and treated as if they are ontologically deficient – meaning that they are not seen as being 'fully human.' This impacts on their position within society and how they are interacted with. This review will consider three examples of social death - often distinguished from physical or biological death - that are important for clinical practice: loss of agency and identity; treating people as if they are already dead; and, rituals and bereavement. Recognising that a distinction between social and biological death may not always be helpful, this review will suggest ways in which healthcare practitioners can minimise the likelihood of inadvertently treating someone as 'socially dead'

Dietary habits and children's family lives

Purpose : To investigate associations between 'less healthy eating' and 'unhealthy snacking' at age 11, and family life (family structure, meals and maternal employment status) together with potential socio-economic confounders and gender. Methods : Children participated in a school-based survey, questionnaires also being completed by parents. Analyses were based on those with complete data, weighted to account for bias in return of parental questionnaires (N = 2146). Data from a dietary inventory, questions on food choice and snacks were used to classify 'less healthy eating' and 'unhealthy snacking'. Results : 'Less healthy eating' (57%) and 'unhealthy snacking' (32%) were associated with greater deprivation, fewer maternal qualifications and being male. Compared with children of full-time homemakers, the likelihood of 'less healthy eating' was reduced among those whose mothers worked part-time (this effect remaining after socio-economic adjustment), full-time (effect removed after adjustment), or were unemployed, sick or disabled (effect emerging after adjustment). 'Unhealthy snacking' was not related to maternal employment, and neither measure was associated with family structure or daily meals. Conclusions : There was no evidence that family structure or meals were associated with children's diets, although maternal employment had a positive association. Contrasting with the size of these effects, relationships between diet and socio-economic status were strong

Being different: correlates of the experience of teasing and bullying at age 11

The public stereotype, largely supported by a rather diverse range of literature, is that bullied children differ from their peers in respect of attributes such as appearance, disability or school performance. In this paper we explore the characteristics of such victims in a way which is both more comprehensive than previous studies and in addition, considers and accounts for possible inter-relationships between variables. Self-report data on teasing and bullying (found to be strongly inter-related) were obtained from a large, school-based sample of 11 year-olds, with additional descriptions and ratings of the children from their parents, class teachers and nurses. Experience of teasing/bullying did not differ according to race, physical maturity or height, but was more likely among children who were less physically attractive, overweight, had a disability such as a sight, hearing or speech problem, and performed poorly at school. These factors were not only significant regardless of sex and social class, but also independent and thus additive in their effects. Characteristics of appearance, disability or ability which in themselves may be difficult to deal with also increase the likelihood that a child will experience the additional burden of being bullied

Young people's leisure and risk-taking behaviours: changes in gender patterning in the West of Scotland during the 1990s

Until the 1990s, the literature on youth leisure characterized that of females as home-based, passive and largely absent from male-dominated subcultures. Contrasting with this, over the course of the 1990s, evidence emerged of increasing public visibility, reduced restrictions on activities and relatively greater increases in health-risk behaviours among females, together with suggestions of a domestification of leisure among males This paper uses data from two cohorts of 15 year olds in the same geographical area (the West of Scotland), separated by 12 years (1987 and 1999) to examine changes in the gender patterning of young people's leisure, use of public space and risk taking (as represented by substance use) over this time period. Gender differences in 'street-based' (previously more males) and 'conventional/safe' (previously more females) leisure disappeared over this period while male excesses in watching sports and playing computer games increased. At the same time, female levels of drinking and experience of illicit drugs reached, and those of smoking overtook, their male counterparts. Additional analyses showed that changes in leisure activities over time accounted in part for the changing gender patterns in substance use. The paper discusses how greater public visibility and increased risk-taking behaviours among females have resulted from the lifting of constraints of respectability on young women's life- styles. These changes have been rapid and have significance in both social and health terms

Tax-Efficient Pension Choices in the UK

ABSTRACTThe special tax treatment of United Kingdom pensions means that the decision on how to use pension assets is particularly involved. In particular, the ability to take up to 25% of pension assets as a tax-free cash lump sum at retirement, offers retirees opportunities to enhance their pension above that possible through the purchase of a compulsory purchase annuity (“CPA”). The tax-free cash lump sum can be used to buy a tax-efficient purchased life annuity (“PLA”), or in a phased retirement strategy. Income withdrawal can also be used to defer the purchase of an annuity until age 75 and, potentially, to generate a higher income. In this paper I compare the options available to retirees using stochastic modelling. I compare the expected excess pension and expected shortfall, both relative to the alternative risk-free pension available, to assess the various options. I find that if the maximum amount of tax-free cash is available to be used to enhance retirement income, then phased retirement offers the best risk/reward trade off. The advantage is greatest for higher-rate tax payers. As the level of tax-free cash falls, income withdrawal becomes more attractive to those wishing to take greater risks.</jats:p