Timescale Dependence in River Channel Migration Measurements

Accurately measuring river meander migration over time is critical for sediment budgets and understanding how rivers respond to changes in hydrology or sediment supply. However, estimates of meander migration rates or streambank contributions to sediment budgets using repeat aerial imagery, maps, or topographic data will be underestimated without proper accounting for channel reversal. Furthermore, comparing channel planform adjustment measured over dissimilar timescales are biased because short‐ and long‐term measurements are disproportionately affected by temporary rate variability, long‐term hiatuses, and channel reversals. We evaluate the role of timescale dependence for the Root River, a single threaded meandering sand‐ and gravel‐bedded river in southeastern Minnesota, USA, with 76 years of aerial photographs spanning an era of landscape changes that have drastically altered flows. Empirical data and results from a statistical river migration model both confirm a temporal measurement‐scale dependence, illustrated by systematic underestimations (2–15% at 50 years) and convergence of migration rates measured over sufficiently long timescales (\u3e 40 years). Frequency of channel reversals exerts primary control on measurement bias for longer time intervals by erasing the record of observable migration. We conclude that using long‐term measurements of channel migration for sediment remobilization projections, streambank contributions to sediment budgets, sediment flux estimates, and perceptions of fluvial change will necessarily underestimate such calculations. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Predicting new venture survival and growth: does the fog lift?

This paper investigates whether new venture performance becomes easier to predict as the venture ages: does the fog lift? To address this question we primarily draw upon a theoretical framework, initially formulated in a managerial context by Levinthal (Adm Sci Q 36(3):397–420, 1991) that sees new venture sales as a random walk but survival being determined by the stock of available resources (proxied by size). We derive theoretical predictions that are tested with a 10-year cohort of 6579 UK new ventures in the UK. We observe that our ability to predict firm growth deteriorates in the years after entry—in terms of the selection environment, the ‘fog’ seems to thicken. However, our survival predictions improve with time—implying that the ‘fog’ does lift