A multivariate timeseries modeling approach to severity of illness assessment and forecasting in ICU with sparse, heterogeneous clinical data

The ability to determine patient acuity (or severity of illness) has immediate practical use for clinicians. We evaluate the use of multivariate timeseries modeling with the multi-task Gaussian process (GP) models using noisy, incomplete, sparse, heterogeneous and unevenly-sampled clinical data, including both physiological signals and clinical notes. The learned multi-task GP (MTGP) hyperparameters are then used to assess and forecast patient acuity. Experiments were conducted with two real clinical data sets acquired from ICU patients: firstly, estimating cerebrovascular pressure reactivity, an important indicator of secondary damage for traumatic brain injury patients, by learning the interactions between intracranial pressure and mean arterial blood pressure signals, and secondly, mortality prediction using clinical progress notes. In both cases, MTGPs provided improved results: an MTGP model provided better results than single-task GP models for signal interpolation and forecasting (0.91 vs 0.69 RMSE), and the use of MTGP hyperparameters obtained improved results when used as additional classification features (0.812 vs 0.788 AUC).Intel Science and Technology Center for Big DataNational Institutes of Health. (U.S.). National Library of Medicine (Biomedical Informatics Research Training Grant NIH/NLM 2T15 LM007092-22)National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (U.S.) (R01 Grant EB001659)Singapore. Agency for Science, Technology and Research (Graduate Scholarship

A multivariate timeseries modeling approach to severity of illness assessment and forecasting in ICU with sparse, heterogeneous clinical data

The ability to determine patient acuity (or severity of illness) has immediate practical use for clinicians. We evaluate the use of multivariate timeseries modeling with the multi-task Gaussian process (GP) models using noisy, incomplete, sparse, heterogeneous and unevenly-sampled clinical data, including both physiological signals and clinical notes. The learned multi-task GP (MTGP) hyperparameters are then used to assess and forecast patient acuity. Experiments were conducted with two real clinical data sets acquired from ICU patients: firstly, estimating cerebrovascular pressure reactivity, an important indicator of secondary damage for traumatic brain injury patients, by learning the interactions between intracranial pressure and mean arterial blood pressure signals, and secondly, mortality prediction using clinical progress notes. In both cases, MTGPs provided improved results: an MTGP model provided better results than single-task GP models for signal interpolation and forecasting (0.91 vs 0.69 RMSE), and the use of MTGP hyperparameters obtained improved results when used as additional classification features (0.812 vs 0.788 AUC).Intel Science and Technology Center for Big DataNational Institutes of Health. (U.S.). National Library of Medicine (Biomedical Informatics Research Training Grant NIH/NLM 2T15 LM007092-22)National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (U.S.) (R01 Grant EB001659)Singapore. Agency for Science, Technology and Research (Graduate Scholarship

Thromboprophylaxis Is Associated With Reduced Post-hospitalization Venous Thromboembolic Events in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

Background & Aims Patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) have increased risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE); those who require hospitalization have particularly high risk. Few hospitalized patients with IBD receive thromboprophylaxis. We analyzed the frequency of VTE after IBD-related hospitalization, risk factors for post-hospitalization VTE, and the efficacy of prophylaxis in preventing post-hospitalization VTE. Methods In a retrospective study, we analyzed data from a multi-institutional cohort of patients with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis and at least 1 IBD-related hospitalization. Our primary outcome was a VTE event. All patients contributed person-time from the date of the index hospitalization to development of VTE, subsequent hospitalization, or end of follow-up. Our main predictor variable was pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis. Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for potential confounders were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results From a cohort of 2788 patients with at least 1 IBD-related hospitalization, 62 patients developed VTE after discharge (2%). Incidences of VTE at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days after the index hospitalization were 3.7/1000, 4.1/1000, 5.4/1000, and 9.4/1000 person-days, respectively. Pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis during the index hospital stay was associated with a significantly lower risk of post-hospitalization VTE (HR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.22–0.97). Increased numbers of comorbidities (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.16–1.47) and need for corticosteroids before hospitalization (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.02–2.87) were also independently associated with risk of VTE. Length of hospitalization or surgery during index hospitalization was not associated with post-hospitalization VTE. Conclusions Pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis during IBD-related hospitalization is associated with reduced risk of post-hospitalization VTE.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (U54-LM008748

Improving Case Definition of Crohnʼs Disease and Ulcerative Colitis in Electronic Medical Records Using Natural Language Processing

available in PMC 2014 June 01Background: Previous studies identifying patients with inflammatory bowel disease using administrative codes have yielded inconsistent results. Our objective was to develop a robust electronic medical record–based model for classification of inflammatory bowel disease leveraging the combination of codified data and information from clinical text notes using natural language processing. Methods: Using the electronic medical records of 2 large academic centers, we created data marts for Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) comprising patients with ≥1 International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition, code for each disease. We used codified (i.e., International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition codes, electronic prescriptions) and narrative data from clinical notes to develop our classification model. Model development and validation was performed in a training set of 600 randomly selected patients for each disease with medical record review as the gold standard. Logistic regression with the adaptive LASSO penalty was used to select informative variables. Results: We confirmed 399 CD cases (67%) in the CD training set and 378 UC cases (63%) in the UC training set. For both, a combined model including narrative and codified data had better accuracy (area under the curve for CD 0.95; UC 0.94) than models using only disease International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition codes (area under the curve 0.89 for CD; 0.86 for UC). Addition of natural language processing narrative terms to our final model resulted in classification of 6% to 12% more subjects with the same accuracy. Conclusions: Inclusion of narrative concepts identified using natural language processing improves the accuracy of electronic medical records case definition for CD and UC while simultaneously identifying more subjects compared with models using codified data alone.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH U54-LM008748)American Gastroenterological AssociationNational Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH K08 AR060257)Beth Isreal Deaconess Medical Center (Katherine Swan Ginsburg Fund)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH R01-AR056768)Burroughs Wellcome Fund (Career Award for Medical Scientists)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH U01-GM092691)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH R01-AR059648

Similar Risk of Depression and Anxiety Following Surgery or Hospitalization for Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis

OBJECTIVES: Psychiatric comorbidity is common in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD)-related surgery or hospitalizations represent major events in the natural history of the disease. The objective of this study is to examine whether there is a difference in the risk of psychiatric comorbidity following surgery in CD and UC. METHODS: We used a multi-institution cohort of IBD patients without a diagnosis code for anxiety or depression preceding their IBD-related surgery or hospitalization. Demographic-, disease-, and treatment-related variables were retrieved. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to individually identify risk factors for depression and anxiety. RESULTS: Our study included a total of 707 CD and 530 UC patients who underwent bowel resection surgery and did not have depression before surgery. The risk of depression 5 years after surgery was 16% and 11% in CD and UC patients, respectively. We found no difference in the risk of depression following surgery in the CD and UC patients (adjusted odds ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.84–1.47). Female gender, comorbidity, immunosuppressant use, perianal disease, stoma surgery, and early surgery within 3 years of care predicted depression after CD surgery; only the female gender and comorbidity predicted depression in UC patients. Only 12% of the CD cohort had ≥4 risk factors for depression, but among them nearly 44% subsequently received a diagnosis code for depression. CONCLUSIONS: IBD-related surgery or hospitalization is associated with a significant risk for depression and anxiety, with a similar magnitude of risk in both diseases.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (U54-LM008748

Methods to Develop an Electronic Medical Record Phenotype Algorithm to Compare the Risk of Coronary Artery Disease across 3 Chronic Disease Cohorts

Background Typically, algorithms to classify phenotypes using electronic medical record (EMR) data were developed to perform well in a specific patient population. There is increasing interest in analyses which can allow study of a specific outcome across different diseases. Such a study in the EMR would require an algorithm that can be applied across different patient populations. Our objectives were: (1) to develop an algorithm that would enable the study of coronary artery disease (CAD) across diverse patient populations; (2) to study the impact of adding narrative data extracted using natural language processing (NLP) in the algorithm. Additionally, we demonstrate how to implement CAD algorithm to compare risk across 3 chronic diseases in a preliminary study. Methods and Results We studied 3 established EMR based patient cohorts: diabetes mellitus (DM, n = 65,099), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD, n = 10,974), and rheumatoid arthritis (RA, n = 4,453) from two large academic centers. We developed a CAD algorithm using NLP in addition to structured data (e.g. ICD9 codes) in the RA cohort and validated it in the DM and IBD cohorts. The CAD algorithm using NLP in addition to structured data achieved specificity >95% with a positive predictive value (PPV) 90% in the training (RA) and validation sets (IBD and DM). The addition of NLP data improved the sensitivity for all cohorts, classifying an additional 17% of CAD subjects in IBD and 10% in DM while maintaining PPV of 90%. The algorithm classified 16,488 DM (26.1%), 457 IBD (4.2%), and 245 RA (5.0%) with CAD. In a cross-sectional analysis, CAD risk was 63% lower in RA and 68% lower in IBD compared to DM (p<0.0001) after adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions We developed and validated a CAD algorithm that performed well across diverse patient populations. The addition of NLP into the CAD algorithm improved the sensitivity of the algorithm, particularly in cohorts where the prevalence of CAD was low. Preliminary data suggest that CAD risk was significantly lower in RA and IBD compared to DM.National Institutes of Health (U.S.). Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside Project (U54LM008748

Psychiatric co-morbidity is associated with increased risk of surgery in Crohn's disease

Psychiatric co-morbidity, in particular major depression and anxiety, is common in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Prior studies examining this may be confounded by the co-existence of functional bowel symptoms. Limited data exist examining an association between depression or anxiety and disease-specific endpoints such as bowel surgery.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH U54-LM008748)American Gastroenterological AssociationNational Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH K08 AR060257)Beth Isreal Deaconess Medical Center (Katherine Swan Ginsburg Fund)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH R01-AR056768)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH U01-GM092691)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH R01-AR059648)Burroughs Wellcome Fund (Career Award for Medical Scientists)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH K24 AR052403)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH P60 AR047782)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH R01 AR049880

Modeling Disease Severity in Multiple Sclerosis Using Electronic Health Records

Objective: To optimally leverage the scalability and unique features of the electronic health records (EHR) for research that would ultimately improve patient care, we need to accurately identify patients and extract clinically meaningful measures. Using multiple sclerosis (MS) as a proof of principle, we showcased how to leverage routinely collected EHR data to identify patients with a complex neurological disorder and derive an important surrogate measure of disease severity heretofore only available in research settings. Methods: In a cross-sectional observational study, 5,495 MS patients were identified from the EHR systems of two major referral hospitals using an algorithm that includes codified and narrative information extracted using natural language processing. In the subset of patients who receive neurological care at a MS Center where disease measures have been collected, we used routinely collected EHR data to extract two aggregate indicators of MS severity of clinical relevance multiple sclerosis severity score (MSSS) and brain parenchymal fraction (BPF, a measure of whole brain volume). Results: The EHR algorithm that identifies MS patients has an area under the curve of 0.958, 83% sensitivity, 92% positive predictive value, and 89% negative predictive value when a 95% specificity threshold is used. The correlation between EHR-derived and true MSSS has a mean R[superscript 2] = 0.38±0.05, and that between EHR-derived and true BPF has a mean R[superscript 2] = 0.22±0.08. To illustrate its clinical relevance, derived MSSS captures the expected difference in disease severity between relapsing-remitting and progressive MS patients after adjusting for sex, age of symptom onset and disease duration (p = 1.56×10[superscript −12]). Conclusion: Incorporation of sophisticated codified and narrative EHR data accurately identifies MS patients and provides estimation of a well-accepted indicator of MS severity that is widely used in research settings but not part of the routine medical records. Similar approaches could be applied to other complex neurological disorders.National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U.S.) (NIH U54-LM008748

Normalization of Plasma 25-Hydroxy Vitamin D Is Associated with Reduced Risk of Surgery in Crohn’s Disease

available in PMC 2014 August 01AB Background: Vitamin D may have an immunologic role in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Retrospective studies suggested a weak association between vitamin D status and disease activity but have significant limitations. Methods: Using a multi-institution inflammatory bowel disease cohort, we identified all patients with CD and UC who had at least one measured plasma 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D). Plasma 25(OH)D was considered sufficient at levels >=30 ng/mL. Logistic regression models adjusting for potential confounders were used to identify impact of measured plasma 25(OH)D on subsequent risk of inflammatory bowel disease-related surgery or hospitalization. In a subset of patients where multiple measures of 25(OH)D were available, we examined impact of normalization of vitamin D status on study outcomes. Results: Our study included 3217 patients (55% CD; mean age, 49 yr). The median lowest plasma 25(OH)D was 26 ng/mL (interquartile range, 17-35 ng/mL). In CD, on multivariable analysis, plasma 25(OH)D =30 ng/mL. Similar estimates were also seen for UC. Furthermore, patients with CD who had initial levels <30 ng/mL but subsequently normalized their 25(OH)D had a reduced likelihood of surgery (odds ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.98) compared with those who remained deficient. Conclusion: Low plasma 25(OH)D is associated with increased risk of surgery and hospitalizations in both CD and UC, and normalization of 25(OH)D status is associated with a reduction in the risk of CD-related surgery. (C) Crohn's & Colitis Foundation of America, Inc

An international effort towards developing standards for best practices in analysis, interpretation and reporting of clinical genome sequencing results in the CLARITY Challenge

BACKGROUND: There is tremendous potential for genome sequencing to improve clinical diagnosis and care once it becomes routinely accessible, but this will require formalizing research methods into clinical best practices in the areas of sequence data generation, analysis, interpretation and reporting. The CLARITY Challenge was designed to spur convergence in methods for diagnosing genetic disease starting from clinical case history and genome sequencing data. DNA samples were obtained from three families with heritable genetic disorders and genomic sequence data was donated by sequencing platform vendors. The challenge was to analyze and interpret these data with the goals of identifying disease causing variants and reporting the findings in a clinically useful format. Participating contestant groups were solicited broadly, and an independent panel of judges evaluated their performance. RESULTS: A total of 30 international groups were engaged. The entries reveal a general convergence of practices on most elements of the analysis and interpretation process. However, even given this commonality of approach, only two groups identified the consensus candidate variants in all disease cases, demonstrating a need for consistent fine-tuning of the generally accepted methods. There was greater diversity of the final clinical report content and in the patient consenting process, demonstrating that these areas require additional exploration and standardization. CONCLUSIONS: The CLARITY Challenge provides a comprehensive assessment of current practices for using genome sequencing to diagnose and report genetic diseases. There is remarkable convergence in bioinformatic techniques, but medical interpretation and reporting are areas that require further development by many groups