Malaria-related mortality based on verbal autopsy in an area of low endemicity in a predominantly rural population in Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although malaria is one of the most important causes of death in Ethiopia, measuring the magnitude of malaria-attributed deaths at community level poses a considerable difficulty. Nevertheless, despite its low sensitivity and specificity, verbal autopsy (VA) has been the most important technique to determine malaria-specific cause of death for community-based studies. The present study was undertaken to assess the magnitude of malaria mortality in a predominantly rural population of Ethiopia using VA technique at Butajira Rural Health Programme (BRHP) Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A verbal autopsy was carried out for a year from August 2003 to July 2004 for all deaths identified at BRPH-DSS. Two trained physicians independently reviewed each VA questionnaire and indicated the most likely causes of death. Finally, all malaria related deaths were identified and used for analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A verbal autopsy study was successfully conducted in 325 deaths, of which 42 (13%) were attributed to malaria. The majority of malaria deaths (47.6%) were from the rural lowlands compared to those that occurred in the rural highlands (31%) and urban (21.4%) areas. The proportional mortality attributable to malaria was not statistically significant among the specific age groups and ecological zones. Mortality from malaria was reckoned to be seasonal; 57% occurred during a three-month period at the end of the rainy season between September and November. About 71% of the deceased received some form of treatment before death, while 12 (28.6%) of those who died neither sought care from a traditional healer nor were taken to a conventional health facility before death. Of those who sought treatment, 53.3% were first taken to a private clinic, 40% sought care from public health facilities, and the remaining two (6.7%) received traditional medicine. Only 11.9% of the total malaria-related deaths received some sort of treatment within 24h after the onset of illness.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this study suggest that malaria plays a considerable role as a cause of death in the study area. Further data on malaria mortality with a relatively large sample size for at least two years will be needed to substantially describe the burden of malaria mortality in the study area.</p

The effect of household heads training about the use of treated bed nets on the burden of malaria and anaemia in under-five children: a cluster randomized trial in Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLITN) have demonstrated a significant effect in reducing malaria-related morbidity and mortality. However, barriers on the utilization of LLITN have hampered the desired outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of community empowerment on the burden of malaria and anaemia in under-five children in Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cluster randomized trial was done in 22 (11 intervention and 11 control) villages in south-west Ethiopia. The intervention consisted of tailored training of household heads about the proper use of LLITN and community network system. The burden of malaria and anaemia in under-five children was determined through mass blood investigation at baseline, six and 12 months of the project period. Cases of malaria and anaemia were treated based on the national protocol. The burden of malaria and anaemia between the intervention and control villages was compared using the complex logistic regression model by taking into account the clustering effect. Eight Focus group discussions were conducted to complement the quantitative findings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 2,105 household heads received the intervention and the prevalence of malaria and anaemia was assessed among 2410, 2037 and 2612 under-five children at baseline, six and 12 months of the project period respectively. During the high transmission/epidemic season, children in the intervention arm were less likely to have malaria as compared to children in the control arm (OR = 0.42; 95%CI: 0.32, 0.57). Symptomatic malaria also steadily declined in the intervention villages compared to the control villages in the follow up periods. Children in the intervention arm were less likely to be anaemic compared to those in the control arm both at the high (OR = 0.84; 95%CI: 0.71, 0.99)) and low (OR = 0.73; 95%CI: 0.60, 0.89) transmission seasons.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Training of household heads on the utilization of LLITN significantly reduces the burden of malaria in under-five children. The Ministry of Health of Ethiopia in collaboration with other partners should design similar strategies in high-risk areas to control malaria in Ethiopia.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Register (ANZCTR): <a href="http://www.anzctr.org.au/ACTRN12610000035022.aspx">ACTRN12610000035022</a></p

Social and Cultural Factors Affecting Uptake of Interventions for Malaria in Pregnancy in Africa: A Systematic Review of the Qualitative Research

Malaria during pregnancy (MiP) results in adverse birth outcomes and poor maternal health. MiP-related morbidity and mortality is most pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa, where recommended MiP interventions include intermittent preventive treatment, insecticide-treated bednets and appropriate case management. Besides their clinical efficacy, the effectiveness of these interventions depends on the attitudes and behaviours of pregnant women and the wider community, which are shaped by social and cultural factors. Although these factors have been studied largely using quantitative methods, qualitative research also offers important insights. This article provides a comprehensive overview of qualitative research on social and cultural factors relevant to uptake of MiP interventions in sub-Saharan Africa.A systematic search strategy was employed: literature searches were undertaken in several databases (OVID SP, IS Web of Knowledge, MiP Consortium library). MiP-related original research, on social/cultural factors relevant to MiP interventions, in Africa, with findings derived from qualitative methods was included. Non-English language articles were excluded. A meta-ethnographic approach was taken to analysing and synthesizing findings. Thirty-seven studies were identified. Fourteen concentrated on MiP. Others focused on malaria treatment and prevention, antenatal care (ANC), anaemia during pregnancy or reproductive loss. Themes identified included concepts of malaria and risk in pregnancy, attitudes towards interventions, structural factors affecting delivery and uptake, and perceptions of ANC.Although malaria risk is associated with pregnancy, women's vulnerability is often considered less disease-specific and MiP interpreted in locally defined categories. Furthermore, local discourses and health workers' ideas and comments influence concerns about MiP interventions. Understandings of ANC, health worker-client interactions, household decision-making, gender relations, cost and distance to health facilities affect pregnant women's access to MiP interventions and lack of healthcare infrastructure limits provision of interventions. Further qualitative research is however required: many studies were principally descriptive and an in-depth comparative approach is recommended

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public

Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990–2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAs set out in Sustainable Development Goal 3.3, the target date for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat is 2030. Therefore, there is a crucial need to evaluate current epidemiological trends and monitor global progress towards HIV incidence and mortality reduction goals. In this analysis, we assess the current burden of HIV in 204 countries and territories and forecast HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality up to 2050 to allow countries to plan for a sustained response with an increasing number of people living with HIV globally. MethodsWe used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 analytical framework to compute age-sex-specific HIV mortality, incidence, and prevalence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990–2021). We aimed to analyse all available data sources, including data on the provision of HIV programmes reported to UNAIDS, published literature on mortality among people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified by a systematic review, household surveys, sentinel surveillance antenatal care clinic data, vital registration data, and country-level case report data. We calibrated a mechanistic simulation of HIV infection and natural history to available data to estimate HIV burden from 1990 to 2021 and generated forecasts to 2050 through projection of all simulation inputs into the future. Historical outcomes (1990–2021) were simulated at the 1000-draw level to support propagation of uncertainty and reporting of uncertainty intervals (UIs). Our approach to forecasting utilised the transmission rate as the basis for projection, along with new rate-of-change projections of ART coverage. Additionally, we introduced two new metrics to our reporting: prevalence of unsuppressed viraemia (PUV), which represents the proportion of the population without a suppressed level of HIV (viral load <1000 copies per mL), and period lifetime probability of HIV acquisition, which quantifies the hypothetical probability of acquiring HIV for a synthetic cohort, a simulated population that is aged from birth to death through the set of age-specific incidence rates of a given time period. FindingsGlobal new HIV infections decreased by 21·9% (95% UI 13·1–28·8) between 2010 and 2021, from 2·11 million (2·02–2·25) in 2010 to 1·65 million (1·48–1·82) in 2021. HIV-related deaths decreased by 39·7% (33·7–44·5), from 1·19 million (1·07–1·37) in 2010 to 718 000 (669 000–785 000) in 2021. The largest declines in both HIV incidence and mortality were in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, super-regions including central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and north Africa and the Middle East experienced increasing HIV incidence and mortality rates. The number of people living with HIV reached 40·0 million (38·0–42·4) in 2021, an increase from 29·5 million (28·1–31·0) in 2010. The lifetime probability of HIV acquisition remains highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, where it declined from its 1995 peak of 21·8% (20·1–24·2) to 8·7% (7·5–10·7) in 2021. Four of the seven GBD super-regions had a lifetime probability of less than 1% in 2021. In 2021, sub-Saharan Africa had the highest PUV of 999·9 (857·4–1154·2) per 100 000 population, but this was a 64·5% (58·8–69·4) reduction in PUV from 2003 to 2021. In the same period, PUV increased in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia by 116·1% (8·0–218·2). Our forecasts predict a continued global decline in HIV incidence and mortality, with the number of people living with HIV peaking at 44·4 million (40·7–49·8) by 2039, followed by a gradual decrease. In 2025, we projected 1·43 million (1·29–1·59) new HIV infections and 615 000 (567 000–680 000) HIV-related deaths, suggesting that the interim 2025 targets for reducing these figures are unlikely to be achieved. Furthermore, our forecasted results indicate that few countries will meet the 2030 target for reducing HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths by 90% from 2010 levels. InterpretationOur forecasts indicate that continuation of current levels of HIV control are not likely to attain ambitious incidence and mortality reduction targets by 2030, and more than 40 million people globally will continue to require lifelong ART for decades into the future. The global community will need to show sustained and substantive efforts to make the progress needed to reach and sustain the end of AIDS as a public threat. FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases