Pollution in the open oceans: 2009-2013

This review of pollution in the open oceans updates a report on this topic prepared by GESAMP five years previously (Reports and Studies No. 79, GESAMP, 2009). The latter report, the first from GESAMP focusing specifically on the oceans beyond the 200 m depth contour, was prepared for purposes of the Assessment of Assessments, the preparatory phase of a regular process for assessing the state of the marine environment, led jointly by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO-IOC)

Predicting Multimedia Traffic in Wireless Networks: A Performance Evaluation of Cognitive Techniques

Traffic engineering in networking is defined as the process that incorporates sophisticated methods in order to ensure optimization and high network performance. One of the most constructive tools employed by the traffic engineering concept is the traffic prediction. Having in mind the heterogeneous traffic patterns originated by various modern services and network platforms, the need of a robust, cognitive, and error-free prediction technique becomes even more pressing. This work focuses on the prediction concept as an autonomous, functional, and efficient process, where multiple cutting-edge methods are presented, modeled, and thoroughly assessed. To this purpose, real traffic traces have been captured, including multiple multimedia traffic flows, so as to comparatively assess widely used methods in terms of accuracy

A new doubly discrete analogue of smoke ring flow and the real time simulation of fluid flow

Modelling incompressible ideal fluids as a finite collection of vortex filaments is important in physics (super-fluidity, models for the onset of turbulence) as well as for numerical algorithms used in computer graphics for the real time simulation of smoke. Here we introduce a time-discrete evolution equation for arbitrary closed polygons in 3-space that is a discretisation of the localised induction approximation of filament motion. This discretisation shares with its continuum limit the property that it is a completely integrable system. We apply this polygon evolution to a significant improvement of the numerical algorithms used in Computer Graphics.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figure

Predicting Multimedia Traffic in Wireless Networks: A Performance Evaluation of Cognitive Techniques

Traffic engineering in networking is defined as the process that incorporates sophisticated methods in order to ensure optimization and high network performance. One of the most constructive tools employed by the traffic engineering concept is the traffic prediction. Having in mind the heterogeneous traffic patterns originated by various modern services and network platforms, the need of a robust, cognitive, and error-free prediction technique becomes even more pressing. This work focuses on the prediction concept as an autonomous, functional, and efficient process, where multiple cutting-edge methods are presented, modeled, and thoroughly assessed. To this purpose, real traffic traces have been captured, including multiple multimedia traffic flows, so as to comparatively assess widely used methods in terms of accuracy

Multiday expected shortfall under generalized t distributions : evidence from global stock market

We apply seven alternative t-distributions to estimate the market risk measures Value at Risk (VaR) and its extension Expected Shortfall (ES). Of these seven, the twin t-distribution (TT) of Baker and Jackson (2014) and generalized asymmetric distribution (GAT) of Baker (2016) are applied for the first time to estimate market risk. We analytically estimate VaR and ES over one-day horizon and extend this to multi-day horizon using Monte Carlo simulation. We find that taken together TT and GAT distributions provide the best back-testing results across individual confidence levels and horizons for majority of scenarios. Moreover, we find that with the lengthening of time horizon, TT and GAT models performs well, such that at the ten-day horizon, GAT provides the best back-testing results for all of the five indices and the TT model provides the second best results, irrespective period of study and confidence level

Damage detection and location in woven fabric CFRP laminate panels

The need for multifunctional carbon fibre composite laminates has emerged to improve the reliability and safety of carbon fibre composite components and decrease costs. The development of an electrical selfsensing system for woven fabric carbon fibre composite laminate panels which can detect and locate damage due to impact events is presented. The electrical sensing system uses a four probe electrical resistance method. Two different sensing mats are investigated, the main difference between them are the surface area of the electrodes and the distance between the electrodes. To investigate the damage sensitivity of the sensing system for woven fabric carbon fibre composite laminate panels, panels are produced with various thicknesses from 0.84 to 3.5 mm and are impacted at energies from 1 to 10 J to generate barely visible impact damage. Damage is detected using global electrical resistance changes, the changes in electrical resistance vary depending on carbon fibre volume fraction, spacing distance between the sensing electrodes in the sensing mats, the surface area of the electrodes, damage size, and damage type; it is found that the thicker the panel, the less sensitive the electrical resistance system is. The effect of the surface area of the sensing electrodes is high on the electrical resistance baseline, where the baseline increases by up to 55% when the surface area of the sensing electrodes increases from 100 mm2 to 400 mm2; while spacing distance between electrodes has a greater effect on damage sensitivity of the electrical resistance sensing system than the surface area of the sensing electrodes

European youth care sites serve different populations of adolescents with cannabis use disorder. Baseline and referral data from the INCANT trial

Background: MDFT (Multidimensional Family Therapy) is a family based outpatient treatment programme for adolescent problem behaviour. MDFT has been found effective in the USA in adolescent samples differing in severity and treatment delivery settings. On request of five governments (Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland), MDFT has now been tested in the joint INCANT trial (International Cannabis Need of Treatment) for applicability in Western Europe. In each of the five countries, study participants were recruited from the local population of youth seeking or guided to treatment for, among other things, cannabis use disorder. There is little information in the literature if these populations are comparable between sites/countries or not. Therefore, we examined if the study samples enrolled in the five countries differed in baseline characteristics regarding demographics, clinical profile, and treatment delivery setting.Methods: INCANT was a multicentre phase III(b) randomized controlled trial with an open-label, parallel group design. It compared MDFT with treatment as usual (TAU) at and across sites in Berlin, Brussels, Geneva, The Hague and Paris.Participants of INCANT were adolescents of either sex, from 13 through 18 years of age, with a cannabis use disorder (dependence or abuse), and at least one parent willing to take part in the treatment. In total, 450 cases/families were randomized (concealed) into INCANT.Results: We collected data about adolescent and family demographics (age, gender, family composition, school, work, friends, and leisure time). In addition, we gathered data about problem behaviour (substance use, alcohol and cannabis use disorders, delinquency, psychiatric co-morbidity).There were no major differences on any of these measures between the treatment conditions (MDFT and TAU) for any of the sites. However, there were cross-site differences on many variables. Most of these could be explained by variations in treatment culture, as reflected by referral policy, i.e., participants' referral source. We distinguished 'self-determined' referral (common in Brussels and Paris) and referral with some authority-related 'external' coercion (common in Geneva and The Hague). The two referral types were more equally divided in Berlin. Many cross-site baseline differences disappeared when we took referral source into account, but not all.Conclusions: A multisite trial has the advantage of being efficient, but it also carries risks, the most important one being lack of equivalence between local study populations. Our site populations differed in many respects. This is not a problem for analyses and interpretations if the differences somehow can be accounted for. To a major extent, this appeared possible in INCANT. The most important factor underlying the cross-site variations in baseline characteristics was referral source. Correcting for referral source made most differences disappear. Therefore, we will use referral source as a covariate accounting for site differences in future INCANT outcome analyses

Expression of the 60 kDa and 71 kDa heat shock proteins and presence of antibodies against the 71 kDa heat shock protein in pediatric patients with immune thrombocytopenic purpura

BACKGROUND: Immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) is an autoimmune disease characterized by platelet destruction resulting from autoantibodies against platelet proteins, particularly platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa. Heat shock proteins (Hsp) have been shown to be major antigenic determinants in some autoimmune diseases. Antibodies to Hsps have also been reported to be associated with a number of pathological states. METHODS: Using western blot, we measured the levels of the 60 kDa heat shock protein (Hsp60) and of the inducible 71 kDa member of the Hsp70 family (Hsp71) in lymphocytes and the presence of antibodies against these hsps in plasma of 29 pediatric patients with ITP before the treatment and in 6 other patients before and after treatment. RESULTS: Interestingly only one out of 29 patients showed detectable Hsp60 in lymphocytes while this heat shock protein was detected in the 30 control children. Hsp71 levels were slightly lower in lymphocytes of patients with ITP than in controls (1567.8 ± 753.2 via 1763.2 ± 641.8 integrated optical density (IOD) units). There was a small increase of Hsp71 after recovery from ITP. The titers of plasma antibodies against Hsp60 and Hsp71 were also examined. Antibodies against Hsp71 were more common in ITP patients (15/29) than in control children (5/30). The titer of anti-Hsp71 was also higher in children patients with ITP. The prevalence of ITP children with antibodies against Hsp71 (51.7%) was as high as those with antibodies against platelet membrane glycoproteins (58.3%). CONCLUSIONS: In summary, pediatric patients with ITP showed no detectable expression of Hsp60 in lymphocytes and a high prevalence of antibody against Hsp71 in plasma. These changes add to our understanding of the pathogenesis of ITP and may be important for the diagnosis, prognosis and treatment of ITP

Measuring Market Liquidity Risk - Which Model Works Best?

Market liquidity risk, the difficulty or cost of trading assets in crises, has been recognized as an important factor in risk management. Literature has already proposed several models to include liquidity risk in the standard Value-at-Risk framework. While theoretical comparisons between those models have been conducted, their empirical performance has never been benchmarked. This paper performs comparative back-tests of daily risk forecasts for a large selection of traceable liquidity risk models. In a 5.5 year stock sample we show which model provides most accurate results and provide detailed recommendations which model is most suitable in a specific situation