«Your book... is the best gift for me»-V.M. Bekhterev (Dedicated to the 159th birth anniversary of V.M. Bekhterev)

In December 2015, the scientific community commemorated the 140th birth anniversary of L.M. Puusepp, and in February 2016 we will mark the 159th birth anniversary of V.M.Bekhterev. Both scientists were among the pioneers of the new specialty - surgical neuropathology, which was focused mainly on brain tumor surgery. The article presents the previously unknown correspondence between the two scientists

Changes in the high latitude Southern Hemisphere through the Eocene-Oligocene Transition:a model-data comparison

International audienceAbstract. The global and regional climate changed dramatically with the expansion of the Antarctic Ice Sheet at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT). These large-scale changes are generally linked to declining atmospheric pCO2 levels and/or changes in Southern Ocean gateways such as the Drake Passage around this time. To better understand the Southern Hemisphere regional climatic changes and the impact of glaciation on the Earth's oceans and atmosphere at the EOT, we compiled a database of 10 ocean and 4 land-surface temperature reconstructions from a range of proxy records and compared this with a series of fully coupled, low-resolution climate model simulations from two models (HadCM3BL and FOAM). Regional patterns in the proxy records of temperature show that cooling across the EOT was less at high latitudes and greater at mid-latitudes. While certain climate model simulations show moderate–good performance at recreating the temperature patterns shown in the data before and after the EOT, in general the model simulations do not capture the absolute latitudinal temperature gradient shown by the data, being too cold, particularly at high latitudes. When taking into account the absolute temperature before and after the EOT, as well as the change in temperature across it, simulations with a closed Drake Passage before and after the EOT or with an opening of the Drake Passage across the EOT perform poorly, whereas simulations with a drop in atmospheric pCO2 in combination with ice growth generally perform better. This provides further support for previous research that changes in atmospheric pCO2 are more likely to have been the driver of the EOT climatic changes, as opposed to the opening of the Drake Passage

Updated projections of UK heat-related mortality using policy-relevant global warming levels and socio-economic scenarios

High temperatures and heatwaves are associated with significant impacts on human health. With continued global temperature increases, extreme thresholds relevant to health will be exceeded more frequently. This study provides an updated spatial analysis of heat-related mortality for the UK, using the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) at 1.5 to 4°C global warming levels, and embedding population and demographic data from the recently released UK Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (UK-SSPs). Climate change will lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the future, exacerbated by increased exposure due to increasing population. We find an increase from ~1,400 average annual deaths in the near-past (1990-2019) (95% CI: 1299 to 1486), to ~2,500 (2304 to 2794), ~3,700 (3280 to 4214), ~8,200 (7376 to 9072) and >18,000 (16,690 to 20,394) average annual deaths at 1.5, 2, 3 and 4°C respectively (assuming no adaptation). This is considered a high-end estimate due to the assumption of high population growth (UK-SSP5). Older populations are shown to be most vulnerable. A large proportion of heat-related deaths (76% (74 to 79%) with 1.5°C global warming) are attributed to more moderate (1-5°C) increases above regional temperature thresholds as opposed to extremes. Our results provide a timely update that can serve as a first step to supporting future UK climate policy and risk assessments. Future research considering nonlinearity in the health response to heat exposure is vital

Evaluating heat extremes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)

In recent years, UK summer heatwaves have resulted in thousands of excess deaths, with both extreme temperatures and high humidity increasing health risks. Here, the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) are compared to observational (HadUK-Grid) and reanalysis data (ERA5) to quantify model performance at capturing mean, extremes (95th to 99.5th percentiles) and variability in the climate state and heat stress metrics (simplified wet bulb global temperature, sWBGT; Humidex; apparent temperature). Simulations carried out for UKCP18 generally perform as well as or better than CMIP5 models in reproducing observed spatial patterns of UK climate relating to extreme heat, with RMSE values on average ~30% less than for the CMIP5 models. Increasing spatial resolution in UKCP18 simulations is shown to yield a minor improvement in model performance (RMSE values on average ~5% less) compared to observations, however there is considerable variability between ensemble members within resolution classes. For both UKCP18 and CMIP5 models, model error in capturing characteristics of extreme heat generally reduces when using heat stress metrics with a larger vapour pressure component, such as sWBGT. Finally, the 95th percentile of observed UK summer temperature is shown to have ~60% greater interannual variability than the summer mean over the recent past (1981–2000). This effect is underestimated in UKCP18 models (~33%) compared to HadUK-grid and ERA5. Compared to projected future changes in the global mean temperature, UK summer mean and 95th percentile temperatures are shown in increase at a faster rate than the global mean

Health-related quality of life in patients with inoperable malignant bowel obstruction: secondary outcome from a double-blind, parallel, placebo-controlled randomised trial of octreotide.

BACKGROUND:This analysis aims to evaluate health-related quality of life (HrQoL) (primary outcome for this analysis), nausea and vomiting, and pain in patients with inoperable malignant bowel obstruction (IMBO) due to cancer or its treatments randomised to standardised therapies plus octreotide or placebo over a maximum of 72 h in a double-blind clinical trial. METHODS:Adults with IMBO and vomiting recruited through 12 services spanning inpatient, consultative and community settings in Australia were randomised to subcutaneous octreotide infusion or saline. HrQoL was measured at baseline and treatment cessation (EORTC QLQ-C15-PAL). Mean within-group paired differences between baseline and post-treatment scores were analysed using Wilcoxon Signed Rank test and between group differences estimated using linear mixed models, adjusted for baseline score, sex, age, time, and study arm. RESULTS:One hundred six of the 112 randomised participants were included in the analysis (n = 52 octreotide, n = 54 placebo); 6 participants were excluded due to major protocol violations. Mean baseline HrQoL scores were low (octreotide 22.1, 95% CI 14.3, 29.9; placebo 31.5, 95% CI 22.3, 40.7). There was no statistically significant within-group improvement in the mean HrQoL scores in the octreotide (p = 0.21) or placebo groups (p = 0.78), although both groups reported reductions in mean nausea and vomiting (octreotide p < 0.01; placebo p = 0.02) and pain scores (octreotide p < 0.01; placebo p = 0.03). Although no statistically significant difference in changes in HrQoL scores between octreotide and placebo were seen, an adequately powered study is required to fully assess any differences in HrQoL scores. CONCLUSION:The HrQoL of patients with IMBO and vomiting is poor. Further research to formally evaluate the effects of standard therapies for IMBO is therefore warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION:Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12608000211369 (date registered 18/04/2008)

The biological carbon pump in CMIP6 models: 21st century trends and uncertainties

The biological carbon pump (BCP) stores ∼1,700 Pg C from the atmosphere in the ocean interior, but the magnitude and direction of future changes in carbon sequestration by the BCP are uncertain. We quantify global trends in export production, sinking organic carbon fluxes, and sequestered carbon in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) future projections, finding a consistent 19 to 48 Pg C increase in carbon sequestration over the 21st century for the SSP3-7.0 scenario, equivalent to 5 to 17% of the total increase of carbon in the ocean by 2100. This is in contrast to a global decrease in export production of –0.15 to –1.44 Pg C y–1. However, there is significant uncertainty in the modeled future fluxes of organic carbon to the deep ocean associated with a range of different processes resolved across models. We demonstrate that organic carbon fluxes at 1,000 m are a good predictor of long-term carbon sequestration and suggest this is an important metric of the BCP that should be prioritized in future model studies

Evaluating a tobacco-free university policy: A repeated crosssectional survey of faculty and staff in Lebanon

INTRODUCTION A growing body of research has evaluated the effect of university tobacco-free policies on faculty and staff, however, none of these studies has been carried out in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. This study evaluates changes in faculty and staff attitudes, perceptions and smoking behavior, at 1 year post adoption of a tobacco-free policy in a medium-sized university in Lebanon and the region. METHODS Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 2017 and 2018: Baseline and at 1 year post policy implementation. A random sample of 625 and 624 participants took part in the 2017 and 2018 studies, respectively. RESULTS Faculty and staff had a positive attitude towards the policy at the two time points. The belief that there should be exceptions to the policy significantly decreased from 79% to 59% (p=0.002) among all smokers, particularly those with lower educational attainment (81% to 57%, p=0.007). Perception of compliance among peer smokers increased from 73% to 87% (p=0.009). The proportion of smokers did not significantly change at 1 year post policy implementation, however, 44% of smokers with lower educational attainment, compared to only 7% of those with higher educational attainment (p<0.001), reported a decrease in their smoking behavior outside campus. CONCLUSIONS The policy had a positive effect on the attitude, behavior and perception of policy benefits among smokers with lower educational attainment, who constitute the majority of smokers. Findings from this study inform and support future efforts to develop university and workplace tobacco-free policies. © 2021 Farran D. et al

Extreme heat risk and the potential implications for the scheduling of football matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Data availability: All data used in this study are freely available to download via the links provided in the “Materials and methods” section.Supplementary information is available online at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-025-02852-4#Sec17 .Climate change is making extreme heat events more frequent and intense. This negatively impacts many aspects of society, including organised sport. As the world’s most watched sporting event, the FIFA World Cup commands particular attention around the threat of extreme heat. The 2022 tournament in Qatar was moved from summer to winter in response to this threat, and now attention turns to the 2026 tournament in North America with extreme heat risk across many of the 16 host locations. We examine this risk by modelling wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) – a widely used measure of heat stress – for the host locations using hourly meteorological data for the period 2003–2022. Our results show that 14 out of 16 host locations exceed WBGTs of 28 °C, with four (nine) exceeding this threshold more than half the time during afternoons across the mean (hottest year) of the 20 year record. This threshold is important as the level beyond which some football governing bodies recommend match delay or postponement. A climatically sound argument is therefore presented to reschedule kick-off times outside the hottest afternoon hours for the host locations with highest heat risk at which no indoor air conditioned environment exists – primarily Miami and Monterrey, but also Philadelphia, Kansas City, Boston and New York. This study highlights the need to carefully assess heat risk ahead of major sporting events to help inform any potential interventions needed in the scheduling of matches and competitions in a warming climate.This study received no external funding from any research council or funding body and is therefore institution-funded from the salaries paid to co-authors from their institutions