Liquidity forecasting

When central banks enter into transactions to implement their monetary policy, they necessarily make use of their own balance sheets. Whether they are undertaking open market operations (OMO) to inject or drain funds from the banking system, or allowing the banks to use standing facilities to borrow or deposit funds, the central bank’s balance sheet will be impacted: the funds in question are commercial bank balances held at the central bank. Ideally, operations undertaken to implement policy should have a predictable impact on the economy, via the banking system. This means that the central bank needs to know the context in which it is operating: what is the current availability of commercial bank balances compared with the level of demand, and how is this expected to change in the near term? An accurate current picture and good forecast of the central bank’s likely future balance sheet is required. The same information on the central bank’s balance sheet is also needed if the central bank wishes to manage liquidity pro-actively. Most central banks do, whether it is to avoid a shortage of liquidity impacting on the payment system, or an excess impacting short-term yields and/or the exchange rate. This Handbook examines the issues involved in forecasting the central bank’s balance sheet. This is normally referred to as ‘liquidity forecasting’ since the item on the balance sheet which central banks typically try to manage is commercial banks balances, a subset of high-powered liquidity.Liquidity forecasting

Central bank management of surplus liquidity

Following a CCBS seminar in London, in February 2006, on the subject of central bank management of surplus liquidity, participants were invited to contribute to a collection of papers - case-studies of how a range of central banks around the world have tackled or are tackling the issues which arise from excess liquidity in the banking system. One of the aims was to produce something quite quickly. Much more remains to be said about the management of excess liquidity than is covered in this volume; but we hope that it will prove useful material to others who are addressing the same issues. Interested readers are also referred to the CCBS Lecture Series no. 3: “Surplus Liquidity: Implications for Central Banks”, by Joe Ganley.Central Bank,Management, Surplus, Liquidity

A Behavioral Approach to Compliance: OSHA Enforcement's Impact on Workplace Accidents

This study test for effects of OSHA enforcement, using data on injuries and OSHA inspections for 6,842 manufacturing plants between 1979 and 1985. We use measures of general deterrence (expected inspections at plants like this one) and specific deterrence (actual inspections at this plant). Both measures of deterrence are found to affect accidents, with a 10% increase in inspections with penalties predicted to reduce accidents by 2%. The existence of specific deterrence effects, the importance of lagged effects, the asymmetrical effects of probability and amount of penalty on accidents, and the tendency of injury rates to self-correct over a few years support a behavioral model of the firm's response to enforcement rather than the traditional expected penalty' model of deterrence theory.

Developing financial markets

Central banks have an interest in well-functioning money markets, foreign exchange markets, and secondary markets for government securities. Efficient financial markets support both the monetary stability and financial stability goals of the central bank; and more broadly should benefit economic development. Well-functioning money markets support the transmission of an interest-rate based monetary policy and can provide information to the central bank. Liquid foreign exchange markets can help to stabilise the exchange rate and reduce transaction costs in cross-border trade and transfers. The development of these markets will support the later introduction of related financial markets such as repo and derivatives, which should in turn lead to improved risk management and financial stability, thereby enhancing economic welfare. Liquidity and price stability in short-term interest rate markets can support market-making, and thus liquidity in the securities markets. This in turn should reduce the cost of issuance for the government and other fixed-interest issuers. Indeed the secondary market for government securities may act as a catalyst for wider fixed income securities markets development: its yield curve is the benchmark for the pricing of the private sector credit. The advancement of these markets should be accompanied by the development of the appropriate market infrastructure such as robust payment and settlement systems and supportive legal framework. Many developing economies are characterised by illiquidity in these core markets, and in most cases a surplus of central bank money, in the form of excess commercial bank balances with the central bank. This handbook will look at what the central bank, and the Ministry of Finance as issuer of government securities, could do (and in some cases should not do) in support of the development of these markets.Developing financial markets

Icing Characteristics and Anti-Icing Heat Requirements for Hollow and Ternally Modified Gas-Heated Inlet Guide Vanes

A two-dimensional inlet-guide-vane cascade was investigated to determine the effects of ice formations on the pressure losses across the guide vanes and to evaluate the heated gas flow and temperature required to prevent Icing at various conditions. A gas flow of approximately 0.4 percent of the inlet-air flow was necessary for anti-icing a hollow guide-vane stage at an inlet-gas temperature of 500 F under the following icing conditions: air velocity, 280 miles per hour; water content, 0.9 gram per cubic meter; and Inlet-air static temperature, 00 F. Also presented are the anti-icing gas flows required with modifications of the hollow Internal gas passage, which show heatinput savings greater than 50 percent

A quantum mechanical approach to establishing the magnetic field orientation from a maser Zeeman profile

Recent comparisons of magnetic field directions derived from maser Zeeman splitting with those derived from continuum source rotation measures have prompted new analysis of the propagation of the Zeeman split components, and the inferred field orientation. In order to do this, we first review differing electric field polarization conventions used in past studies. With these clearly and consistently defined, we then show that for a given Zeeman splitting spectrum, the magnetic field direction is fully determined and predictable on theoretical grounds: when a magnetic field is oriented away from the observer, the left-hand circular polarization is observed at higher frequency and the right-hand polarization at lower frequency. This is consistent with classical Lorentzian derivations. The consequent interpretation of recent measurements then raises the possibility of a reversal between the large-scale field (traced by rotation measures) and the small-scale field (traced by maser Zeeman splitting).Comment: 10 pages, 5 Figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Instant restore after a media failure

Media failures usually leave database systems unavailable for several hours until recovery is complete, especially in applications with large devices and high transaction volume. Previous work introduced a technique called single-pass restore, which increases restore bandwidth and thus substantially decreases time to repair. Instant restore goes further as it permits read/write access to any data on a device undergoing restore--even data not yet restored--by restoring individual data segments on demand. Thus, the restore process is guided primarily by the needs of applications, and the observed mean time to repair is effectively reduced from several hours to a few seconds. This paper presents an implementation and evaluation of instant restore. The technique is incrementally implemented on a system starting with the traditional ARIES design for logging and recovery. Experiments show that the transaction latency perceived after a media failure can be cut down to less than a second and that the overhead imposed by the technique on normal processing is minimal. The net effect is that a few "nines" of availability are added to the system using simple and low-overhead software techniques

GREENHOUSE GAS POLICIES AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS OF THE HOG INDUSTRY

This paper was presented at the INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS SYMPOSIUM in Auckland, New Zealand, January 18-19, 2001. The Symposium was sponsored by: the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, the Venture Trust, Massey University, New Zealand, and the Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies, Massey University. Dietary changes, especially in developing countries, are driving a massive increase in demand for livestock products. The objective of this symposium was to examine the consequences of this phenomenon, which some have even called a "revolution." How are dietary patterns changing, and can increased demands for livestock products be satisfied from domestic resources? If so, at what cost? What will be the flow-on impacts, for example, in terms of increased demands for feedgrains and the pressures for change within marketing systems? A supply-side response has been the continued development of large-scale, urban-based industrial livestock production systems that in many cases give rise to environmental concerns. If additional imports seem required, where will they originate and what about food security in the importing regions? How might market access conditions be re-negotiated to make increased imports achievable? Other important issues discussed involved food safety, animal health and welfare and the adoption of biotechnology, and their interactions with the negotiation of reforms to domestic and trade policies. Individual papers from this conference are available on AgEcon Search. If you would like to see the complete agenda and set of papers from this conference, please visit the IATRC Symposium web page at: http://www1.umn.edu/iatrc.intro.htmEnvironmental Economics and Policy, Production Economics,