The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling U.K. butterfly population size and phenology

Copyright @ 2012 The Authors. This article can be accessed from the links below.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.1. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts considerable control on U.K. weather. This study investigates the impact of the NAO on butterfly abundance and phenology using 34 years of data from the U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS). 2. The study uses a multi-species indicator to show that the NAO does not affect overall U.K. butterfly population size. However, the abundance of bivoltine butterfly species, which have longer flight seasons, were found to be more likely to respond positively to the NAO compared with univoltine species, which show little or a negative response. 3. A positive winter NAO index is associated with warmer weather and earlier flight dates for Anthocharis cardamines (Lepidoptera: Pieridae), Melanargia galathea (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Aphantopus hyperantus (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Pyronia tithonus (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Lasiommata megera (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) and Polyommatus icarus (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae). In bivoltine species, the NAO affects the phenology of the first generation, the timing of which indirectly controls the timing of the second generation. 4. The NAO influences the timing of U.K. butterfly flight seasons more strongly than it influences population size.This study was supported by a multi-agency consortium led by the U.K. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), including the Countryside Council for Wales, the Joint Nature Conservation Committee, the Forestry Commission, Natural England, the Natural Environment Research Council, the Northern Ireland Environment Agency and Scottish Natural Heritage. This article is made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund

Outbreak of West Nile virus causing severe neurological involvement in children, Nuba Mountains, Sudan, 2002.

An atypical outbreak of West Nile virus (WNV) occurred in Ngorban County, South Kordophan, Sudan, from May to August 2002. We investigated the epidemic and conducted a case-control study in the village of Limon. Blood samples were obtained for cases and controls. Patients with obvious sequelae underwent cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) sampling as well. We used enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and neutralization tests for laboratory diagnosis and identified 31 cases with encephalitis, four of whom died. Median age was 36 months. Bivariate analysis did not reveal any significant association with the risk factors investigated. Laboratory analysis confirmed presence of IgM antibodies caused by WNV in eight of 13 cases, indicative of recent viral infection. The unique aspects of the WNW outbreak in Sudan, i.e. disease occurrence solely among children and the clinical domination of encephalitis, involving severe neurological sequelae, demonstrate the continuing evolution of WNV virulence. The spread of such a virus to other countries or continents cannot be excluded

A Hedged Monte Carlo Approach to Real Option Pricing

In this work we are concerned with valuing optionalities associated to invest or to delay investment in a project when the available information provided to the manager comes from simulated data of cash flows under historical (or subjective) measure in a possibly incomplete market. Our approach is suitable also to incorporating subjective views from management or market experts and to stochastic investment costs. It is based on the Hedged Monte Carlo strategy proposed by Potters et al (2001) where options are priced simultaneously with the determination of the corresponding hedging. The approach is particularly well-suited to the evaluation of commodity related projects whereby the availability of pricing formulae is very rare, the scenario simulations are usually available only in the historical measure, and the cash flows can be highly nonlinear functions of the prices.Comment: 25 pages, 14 figure

Characterization of Rabensburg Virus, a Flavivirus Closely Related to West Nile Virus of the Japanese Encephalitis Antigenic Group

Rabensburg virus (RABV), a Flavivirus with ∼76% nucleotide and 90% amino acid identity with representative members of lineage one and two West Nile virus (WNV), previously was isolated from Culex pipiens and Aedes rossicus mosquitoes in the Czech Republic, and phylogenetic and serologic analyses demonstrated that it was likely a new lineage of WNV. However, no direct link between RABV and human disease has been definitively established and the extent to which RABV utilizes the typical WNV transmission cycle is unknown. Herein, we evaluated vector competence and capacity for vertical transmission (VT) in Cx. pipiens; in vitro growth on avian, mammalian, and mosquito cells; and infectivity and viremia production in birds. RABV infection and replication only were detected on mosquito cells. Experimentally inoculated birds did not become infected. Cx. pipiens had poor peroral vector competence and a higher VT rate as compared to US-WNV in Cx. pipiens. As a result, we postulate that RABV is an intermediate between the mosquito-specific and horizontally transmitted flaviviruses

Self-ordered TiO2 quantum dot array prepared via anodic oxidation

The template-based methods belong to low-cost and rapid preparation techniques for various nanostructures like nanowires, nanotubes, and nanodots or even quantum dots [QDs]. The nanostructured surfaces with QDs are very promising in the application as a sensor array, also called 'fluorescence array detector.' In particular, this new sensing approach is suitable for the detection of various biomolecules (DNA, proteins) in vitro (in clinical diagnostics) as well as for in vivo imaging

Migraine and sleep disorders: a systematic review

Migraine and sleep disorders are common and often burdensome chronic conditions with a high prevalence in the general population, and with considerable socio-economic impact and costs. The existence of a relationship between migraine and sleep disorders has been recognized from centuries by clinicians and epidemiological studies. Nevertheless, the exact nature of this association, the underlying mechanisms and interactions are complex and not completely understood. Recent biochemical and functional imaging studies identified central nervous system structures and neurotransmitters involved in the pathophysiology of migraine and also important for the regulation of normal sleep architecture, suggesting a possible causative role, in the pathogenesis of both disorders, of a dysregulation in these common nervous system pathways. This systematic review summarizes the existing data on migraine and sleep disorders with the aim to evaluate the existence of a causal relationship and to assess the presence of influencing factors. The identification of specific sleep disorders associated with migraine should induce clinicians to systematically assess their presence in migraine patients and to adopt combined treatment strategies

Genetic characterization of Yug Bogdanovac virus

We present pyrosequencing data and phylogenetic analysis for the full genome of Yug Bogdanovac virus (YBV), a member of the Vesicular stomatitis virus serogroup of the Rhabdoviridae isolated from a pool of Phlebotomus perfiliewi sandflies collected in Serbia in 1976. YBV shows very low nucleotide identities to other members of the Vesicular stomatitis virus serogroup and does not contain a reading frame for C′/C proteins

Capecitabine in combination with bendamustine in pretreated women with HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer: results of a phase II trial (AGMT MBC-6)

BACKGROUND: Bendamustine, a medication approved for the treatment of indolent non-Hodgkin lymphoma, has already shown anticancer activity in metastatic breast cancer (MBC). Here, we present the results of a phase II trial of bendamustine in combination with capecitabine in pre-treated patients with MBC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: AGMT MBC-6 is a multicentre, open-label, single-arm phase II study in HER2-negative MBC. All patients were pre-treated with anthracyclines and/or taxans and had measurable disease. Patients received per os 1000 mg/m(2) capecitabine twice daily on days 1 to 14 in combination with 80 mg/m(2) bendamustine intravenously on days 1 and 8 of a 3-week cycle for a maximum of eight cycles, followed by a capecitabine maintenance therapy. The primary endpoint was overall response rate (ORR). RESULTS: From September 2013 to May 2015, 40 patients were recruited in eight Austrian centres. The median age was 60 years (range 29-77). Twenty-five per cent of patients had triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and 93% showed visceral involvement. With 17 partial and one complete remission, ORR was 46%. Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 7.5 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 6.1-10.7]. The most common non-haematological adverse events (AEs) of grade 3 were hand-foot syndrome (13%), fatigue (10%), nausea (8%), and dyspnoea (8%). One grade 4 non-haematological AE (hepatic failure) and three grade 4 haematological AEs (neutropenia) were observed. One patient died of restrictive cardiomyopathy, in which a relationship to capecitabine cannot be excluded, but seems unlikely. CONCLUSION: The combination of capecitabine and bendamustine shows promising efficacy and moderate toxicity. Further evaluation of this drug combination is warranted.The clinical trial AGMT MBC-6 was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, (https://clinicaltrials.gov/; identifier: NCT01891227)

Investigating the spatial risk distribution of West Nile virus disease in birds and humans in southern Ontario from 2002 to 2005

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The West Nile virus (WNv) became a veterinary public health concern in southern Ontario in 2001 and has continued to threaten public health. Wild bird mortality has been shown to be an indicator for tracking the geographic distribution of the WNv. The purpose of this study was to investigate the latent risk distribution of WNv disease among dead birds and humans in southern Ontario and to compare the spatial risk patterns for the period 2002–2005. The relationship between the mortality fraction in birds and incidence rate in humans was also investigated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Choropleth maps were created to investigate the spatial variation in bird and human WNv risk for the public health units of southern Ontario. The data were smoothed by empirical Bayesian estimation before being mapped. Isopleth risk maps for both the bird and human data were created to identify high risk areas and to investigate the potential relationship between the WNv mortality fraction in birds and incidence rates in humans. This was carried out by the geostatistical prediction method of kriging. A Poisson regression analysis was used to model regional human WNv case counts as a function of the spatial coordinates in the east and north direction and the regional bird mortality fractions. The presence of disease clustering and the location of disease clusters were investigated by the spatial scan test.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The isopleth risk maps exhibited high risk areas that were relatively constant from year to year. There was an overlap in the bird and human high risk areas, which occurred in the central-west and south-west areas of southern Ontario. The annual WNv cause-specific mortality fractions in birds for 2002 to 2005 were 31.9, 22.0, 19.2 and 25.2 positive birds per 100 birds tested, respectively. The annual human WNv incidence rates for 2002 to 2005 were 2.21, 0.76, 0.13 and 2.10 human cases per 100,000 population, respectively. The relative risk of human WNv disease was 0.72 times lower for a public health unit that was 100 km north of another public health unit. The relative risk of human WNv disease increased by the factor 1.44 with every 10 positive birds per 100 tested. The scan statistic detected disease cluster in the bird and human data. The human clusters were not significant, when the analysis was conditioned on the bird data.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study indicates a significant relationship between the spatial pattern of WNv risk in humans and birds.</p

Alternative approach to the optimality of the threshold strategy for spectrally negative Levy processes

Consider the optimal dividend problem for an insurance company whose uncontrolled surplus precess evolves as a spectrally negative Levy process. We assume that dividends are paid to the shareholders according to admissible strategies whose dividend rate is bounded by a constant. The objective is to find a dividend policy so as to maximize the expected discounted value of dividends which are paid to the shareholders until the company is ruined. Kyprianou, Loeffen and Perez [28] have shown that a refraction strategy (also called threshold strategy) forms an optimal strategy under the condition that the Levy measure has a completely monotone density. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to this optimal problem.Comment: 16 page