The Hubble Space Telescope Cluster Supernova Survey: V. Improving the Dark Energy Constraints Above z>1 and Building an Early-Type-Hosted Supernova Sample

We present ACS, NICMOS, and Keck AO-assisted photometry of 20 Type Ia supernovae SNe Ia from the HST Cluster Supernova Survey. The SNe Ia were discovered over the redshift interval 0.623 < z < 1.415. Fourteen of these SNe Ia pass our strict selection cuts and are used in combination with the world's sample of SNe Ia to derive the best current constraints on dark energy. Ten of our new SNe Ia are beyond redshift $z=1$, thereby nearly doubling the statistical weight of HST-discovered SNe Ia beyond this redshift. Our detailed analysis corrects for the recently identified correlation between SN Ia luminosity and host galaxy mass and corrects the NICMOS zeropoint at the count rates appropriate for very distant SNe Ia. Adding these supernovae improves the best combined constraint on the dark energy density \rho_{DE}(z) at redshifts 1.0 < z < 1.6 by 18% (including systematic errors). For a LambdaCDM universe, we find \Omega_\Lambda = 0.724 +0.015/-0.016 (68% CL including systematic errors). For a flat wCDM model, we measure a constant dark energy equation-of-state parameter w = -0.985 +0.071/-0.077 (68% CL). Curvature is constrained to ~0.7% in the owCDM model and to ~2% in a model in which dark energy is allowed to vary with parameters w_0 and w_a. Tightening further the constraints on the time evolution of dark energy will require several improvements, including high-quality multi-passband photometry of a sample of several dozen z>1 SNe Ia. We describe how such a sample could be efficiently obtained by targeting cluster fields with WFC3 on HST.Comment: 27 pages, 11 figures. Submitted to ApJ. This first posting includes updates in response to comments from the referee. See http://www.supernova.lbl.gov for other papers in the series pertaining to the HST Cluster SN Survey. The updated supernova Union2.1 compilation of 580 SNe is available at http://supernova.lbl.gov/Unio

Cluster Lenses

Clusters of galaxies are the most recently assembled, massive, bound structures in the Universe. As predicted by General Relativity, given their masses, clusters strongly deform space-time in their vicinity. Clusters act as some of the most powerful gravitational lenses in the Universe. Light rays traversing through clusters from distant sources are hence deflected, and the resulting images of these distant objects therefore appear distorted and magnified. Lensing by clusters occurs in two regimes, each with unique observational signatures. The strong lensing regime is characterized by effects readily seen by eye, namely, the production of giant arcs, multiple-images, and arclets. The weak lensing regime is characterized by small deformations in the shapes of background galaxies only detectable statistically. Cluster lenses have been exploited successfully to address several important current questions in cosmology: (i) the study of the lens(es) - understanding cluster mass distributions and issues pertaining to cluster formation and evolution, as well as constraining the nature of dark matter; (ii) the study of the lensed objects - probing the properties of the background lensed galaxy population - which is statistically at higher redshifts and of lower intrinsic luminosity thus enabling the probing of galaxy formation at the earliest times right up to the Dark Ages; and (iii) the study of the geometry of the Universe - as the strength of lensing depends on the ratios of angular diameter distances between the lens, source and observer, lens deflections are sensitive to the value of cosmological parameters and offer a powerful geometric tool to probe Dark Energy. In this review, we present the basics of cluster lensing and provide a current status report of the field.Comment: About 120 pages - Published in Open Access at: http://www.springerlink.com/content/j183018170485723/ . arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:astro-ph/0504478 and arXiv:1003.3674 by other author

Bright Strongly Lensed Galaxies at Redshift z~ 6-7 behind the Clusters Abell 1703 and CL0024+161

We report on the discovery of three bright, strongly-lensed objects behind Abell 1703 and CL0024+16 from a dropout search over 25 square arcminutes of deep NICMOS data, with deep ACS optical coverage. They are undetected in the deep ACS images below 8500 A and have clear detections in the J and H bands. Fits to the ACS, NICMOS and IRAC data yield robust photometric redshifts in the range z~6-7 and largely rule out the possibility that they are low-redshift interlopers. All three objects are extended, and resolved into a pair of bright knots. The bright i-band dropout in Abell 1703 has an H-band AB magnitude of 23.9, which makes it one of the brightest known galaxy candidates at z>5.5. Our model fits suggest a young, massive galaxy only ~ 60 million years old with a mass of ~ 1E10 solar mass. The dropout galaxy candidates behind CL0024+16 are separated by 2.5" (~ 2 kpc in the source plane), and have H-band AB magnitudes of 25.0 and 25.6. Lensing models of CL0024+16 suggest that the objects have comparable intrinsic magnitudes of AB ~ 27.3, approximately one magnitude fainter than L* at z~6.5. Their similar redshifts, spectral energy distribution, and luminosities, coupled with their very close proximity on the sky, suggest that they are spatially associated, and plausibly are physically bound. Combining this sample with two previously reported, similarly magnified galaxy candidates at z~6-8, we find that complex systems with dual nuclei may be a common feature of high-redshift galaxies.Comment: 34 pages, 9 figure

The Hubble Space Telescope Cluster Supernova Survey: III. Correlated Properties of Type Ia Supernovae and Their Hosts at 0.9 < z < 1.46

Using the sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered by the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Cluster Supernova Survey and augmented with HST-observed SNe Ia in the GOODS fields, we search for correlations between the properties of SNe and their host galaxies at high redshift. We use galaxy color and quantitative morphology to determine the red sequence in 25 clusters and develop a model to distinguish passively evolving early-type galaxies from star-forming galaxies in both clusters and the field. With this approach, we identify six SN Ia hosts that are early-type cluster members and eleven SN Ia hosts that are early-type field galaxies. We confirm for the first time at z>0.9 that SNe Ia hosted by early-type galaxies brighten and fade more quickly than SNe Ia hosted by late-type galaxies. We also show that the two samples of hosts produce SNe Ia with similar color distributions. The relatively simple spectral energy distributions (SEDs) expected for passive galaxies enable us to measure stellar masses of early-type SN hosts. In combination with stellar mass estimates of late-type GOODS SN hosts from Thomson & Chary (2011), we investigate the correlation of host mass with Hubble residual observed at lower redshifts. Although the sample is small and the uncertainties are large, a hint of this relation is found at z>0.9. By simultaneously fitting the average cluster galaxy formation history and dust content to the red-sequence scatters, we show that the reddening of early-type cluster SN hosts is likely E(B-V) <~ 0.06. The similarity of the field and cluster early-type host samples suggests that field early-type galaxies that lie on the red sequence may also be minimally affected by dust. Hence, the early-type hosted SNe Ia studied here occupy a more favorable environment to use as well-characterized high-redshift standard candles than other SNe Ia.Comment: 37 pages, 15 figure

Reduced Physiological Complexity in Robust Elderly Adults with the APOE ε4 Allele

BACKGROUND:It is unclear whether the loss of physiological complexity during the aging process is due to genetic variations. The APOE gene has been studied extensively in regard to its relationship with aging-associated medical illness. We hypothesize that diminished physiological complexity, as measured by heart rate variability, is influenced by polymorphisms in the APOE allele among elderly individuals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:A total of 102 robust, non-demented, elderly subjects with normal functions of daily activities participated in this study (97 males and 5 females, aged 79.2+/-4.4 years, range 72-92 years). Among these individuals, the following two APOE genotypes were represented: epsilon4 non-carriers (n = 87, 85.3%) and epsilon4 carriers (n = 15, 14.7%). Multi-scale entropy (MSE), an analysis used in quantifying complexity for nonlinear time series, was employed to analyze heart-rate dynamics. Reduced physiological complexity, as measured by MSE, was significantly associated with the presence of the APOE epsilon4 allele in healthy elderly subjects, as compared to APOE epsilon4 allele non-carriers (24.6+/-5.5 versus 28.9+/-5.2, F = 9.429, p = 0.003, respectively). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:This finding suggests a role for the APOE gene in the diminished physiological complexity seen in elderly populations

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC