Modelling of natural fire occurrences : a case of South Africa

Abstract: In contemporary literature there have been growing concerns regarding preservations of natural ecosystems. Given the global growth in awareness of global warming, the need for natural fire prediction models has grown rapidly. Using South Africa as a case study, we evaluate the potential of integrating several natural fire prediction models and geographical information system (GIS) platforms. Initially, natural fire prone regions in South Africa were spatially demarcated basing on municipal historical data records. Thereafter, the natural fire prediction models were applied/tested in parallel to identify the best prediction models that give optimum results in predicting natural fires. The models were assessed for accuracy using historical data. Preliminary results reveal locations in the North West, Mpumalanga and Limpopo province had the highest recorded potential for natural fires. In conclusion, the work demonstrates huge potential of prediction models in informing the likelihood of natural fire outbreaks. Lastly, the work recommends the adoption of natural fire prediction models and the subsequent formulation and use of relevant future natural fire mitigation policies and techniques to avert disasters in time

Radiographic viewing conditions at Johannesburg Hospital

Purpose: To measure the luminance level of X-ray viewing boxes and ambient lighting levels in reporting rooms as a quality assurance procedure, and to compare the results with those recommended by the Directorate of Radiatio

Psychosocial and environmental determinants of child cognitive development in rural south africa and tanzania: findings from the mal-ed cohort

Background Approximately 66% of children under the age of 5 in Sub-Saharan African countries do not reach their full cognitive potential, the highest percentage in the world. Because the majority of studies investigating child cognitive development have been conducted in high-income countries (HICs), there is limited knowledge regarding the determinants of child development in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods This analysis includes 401 mother-child dyads from the South Africa and Tanzania sites of the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) longitudinal birth cohort study. We investigated the effect of psychosocial and environmental determinants on child cognitive development measured by the Wechsler Preschool Primary Scales of Intelligence (WPPSI) at 5 years of age using multivariable linear regression. Results Socioeconomic status was most strongly associated with child cognitive development (WPSSI Score Difference (SD):14.27, 95% CI:1.96, 26.59). Modest associations between the organization of the home environment and its opportunities for cognitive stimulation and child cognitive development were also found (SD: 3.08, 95% CI: 0.65, 5.52 and SD: 3.18, 95% CI: 0.59, 5.76, respectively). Conclusion This study shows a stronger association with child cognitive development at 5 years of age for socioeconomic status compared to more proximal measures of psychosocial and environmental determinants. A better understanding of the role of these factors is needed to inform interventions aiming to alleviate the burden of compromised cognitive development for children in LMICs.publishedVersio

Causal Pathways from Enteropathogens to Environmental Enteropathy: Findings from the MAL-ED Birth Cohort Study

Background Environmental enteropathy (EE), the adverse impact of frequent and numerous enteric infections on the gut resulting in a state of persistent immune activation and altered permeability, has been proposed as a key determinant of growth failure in children in low- and middle-income populations. A theory-driven systems model to critically evaluate pathways through which enteropathogens, gut permeability, and intestinal and systemic inflammation affect child growth was conducted within the framework of the Etiology, Risk Factors and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) birth cohort study that included children from eight countries. Methods Non-diarrheal stool samples (N = 22,846) from 1253 children from multiple sites were evaluated for a panel of 40 enteropathogens and fecal concentrations of myeloperoxidase, alpha-1-antitrypsin, and neopterin. Among these same children, urinary lactulose:mannitol (L:M) (N = 6363) and plasma alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) (N = 2797) were also measured. The temporal sampling design was used to create a directed acyclic graph of proposed mechanistic pathways between enteropathogen detection in non-diarrheal stools, biomarkers of intestinal permeability and inflammation, systemic inflammation and change in length- and weight- for age in children 0–2 years of age. Findings Children in these populations had frequent enteric infections and high levels of both intestinal and systemic inflammation. Higher burdens of enteropathogens, especially those categorized as being enteroinvasive or causing mucosal disruption, were associated with elevated biomarker concentrations of gut and systemic inflammation and, via these associations, indirectly associated with both reduced linear and ponderal growth. Evidence for the association with reduced linear growth was stronger for systemic inflammation than for gut inflammation; the opposite was true of reduced ponderal growth. Although Giardia was associated with reduced growth, the association was not mediated by any of the biomarkers evaluated. Interpretation The large quantity of empirical evidence contributing to this analysis supports the conceptual model of EE. The effects of EE on growth faltering in young children were small, but multiple mechanistic pathways underlying the attribution of growth failure to asymptomatic enteric infections had statistical support in the analysis. The strongest evidence for EE was the association between enteropathogens and linear growth mediated through systemic inflammation

PROPOSED GUIDELINES TO MINIMISE MULTI-DRUG RESISTANT TUBERCULOSIS TREATMENT DEFAULT IN A MULTI-DRUG RESISTANT UNIT OF LIMPOPO PROVINCE, SOUTH AFRICA

Background: The increasing prevalence and incidence of Multi Drug Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is as a result of the defaulting of treatment by patients. Worldwide, several factors that contribute to patients defaulting to tuberculosis treatment protocol have been identified. This paper aims to develop guidelines to minimise the defaulting rate of MDR-TB patients in MDR unit of Limpopo Province. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted using a qualitative approach. Tesch’s open coding method of data analysis was adopted to analyse the data obtained. Reasoning strategies were employed in the development of the guidelines. These include analysis, synthesis, deductive reasoning and inductive reasoning. Synthesis strategy was used to construct relational statements. Results: The factors contributing to patients’ default from MDR-TB treatment were identified and organized into four themes. Guidelines were developed to address each factor and give recommendations on possible solutions. Conclusion: The guidelines that were developed concluded that co-operation amongst the Department of Health, health practitioners, patient, and family members can help in preventing the defaulting of treatment

Early infant HIV-1 diagnosis programs in resource-limited settings: opportunities for improved outcomes and more cost-effective interventions

Early infant diagnosis (EID) of HIV-1 infection confers substantial benefits to HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected infants, to their families, and to programs providing prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services, but has been challenging to implement in resource-limited settings. In order to correctly inform parents/caregivers of infant infection status and link HIV-infected infants to care and treatment, a 'cascade' of events must successfully occur. A frequently cited barrier to expansion of EID programs is the cost of the required laboratory assays. However, substantial implementation barriers, as well as personnel and infrastructure requirements, exist at each step in the cascade. In this update, we review challenges to uptake at each step in the EID cascade, highlighting that even with the highest reported levels of uptake, nearly half of HIV-infected infants may not complete the cascade successfully. We next synthesize the available literature about the costs and cost effectiveness of EID programs; identify areas for future research; and place these findings within the context of the benefits and challenges to EID implementation in resource-limited settings

Causes and consequences of child growth faltering in low-resource settings

Growth faltering in children (low length for age or low weight for length) during the first 1,000 days of life (from conception to 2 years of age) influences short-term and long-term health and survival 1,2. Interventions such as nutritional supplementation during pregnancy and the postnatal period could help prevent growth faltering, but programmatic action has been insufficient to eliminate the high burden of stunting and wasting in low- and middle-income countries. Identification of age windows and population subgroups on which to focus will benefit future preventive efforts. Here we use a population intervention effects analysis of 33 longitudinal cohorts (83,671 children, 662,763 measurements) and 30 separate exposures to show that improving maternal anthropometry and child condition at birth accounted for population increases in length-for-age z-scores of up to 0.40 and weight-for-length z-scores of up to 0.15 by 24 months of age. Boys had consistently higher risk of all forms of growth faltering than girls. Early postnatal growth faltering predisposed children to subsequent and persistent growth faltering. Children with multiple growth deficits exhibited higher mortality rates from birth to 2 years of age than children without growth deficits (hazard ratios 1.9 to 8.7). The importance of prenatal causes and severe consequences for children who experienced early growth faltering support a focus on pre-conception and pregnancy as a key opportunity for new preventive interventions