A Hedged Monte Carlo Approach to Real Option Pricing

In this work we are concerned with valuing optionalities associated to invest or to delay investment in a project when the available information provided to the manager comes from simulated data of cash flows under historical (or subjective) measure in a possibly incomplete market. Our approach is suitable also to incorporating subjective views from management or market experts and to stochastic investment costs. It is based on the Hedged Monte Carlo strategy proposed by Potters et al (2001) where options are priced simultaneously with the determination of the corresponding hedging. The approach is particularly well-suited to the evaluation of commodity related projects whereby the availability of pricing formulae is very rare, the scenario simulations are usually available only in the historical measure, and the cash flows can be highly nonlinear functions of the prices.Comment: 25 pages, 14 figure

Simonsenia aveniformis sp nov (Bacillariophyceae), molecular phylogeny and systematics of the genus, and a new type of canal raphe system

The genus Simonsenia is reviewed and S. aveniformis described as new for science by light and electron microscopy. The new species originated from estuarine environments in southern Iberia (Atlantic coast) and was isolated into culture. In LM, Simonsenia resembles Nitzschia, with bridges (fibulae) beneath the raphe, which is marginal. It is only electron microscope (EM) examination that reveals the true structure of the raphe system, which consists of a raphe canal raised on a keel (wing), supported by rib like braces (fenestral bars) and tube-like portulae; between the portulae the keel is perforated by open windows (fenestrae). Based on the presence of portulae and a fenestrated keel, Simonsenia has been proposed to be intermediate between Bacillariaceae and Surirellaceae. However, an rbcL phylogeny revealed that Simonsenia belongs firmly in the Bacillariaceae, with which it shares a similar chloroplast arrangement, rather than in the Surirellaceae. Lack of homology between the surirelloid and simonsenioid keels is reflected in subtle differences in the morphology and ontogeny of the portulae and fenestrae. The diversity of Simonsenia has probably been underestimated, particularly in the marine environment.Polish National Science Centre in Cracow within the Maestro program [N 2012/04/A/ST10/00544]; Sciences and Technologies Foundation-FCT (Portugal) [SFRH/BD/62405/2009]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Nosocomial outbreak of novel arenavirus infection, Southern Africa

A nosocomial outbreak of disease involving 5 patients, 4 of whom died, occurred in South Africa during September—October 2008. The first patient had been transferred from Zambia to South Africa for medical management. Three cases involved secondary spread of infection from the first patient, and 1 was a tertiary infection. A novel arenavirus was identified. The source of the first patient's infection remains undetermined

Towards the clinical implementation of pharmacogenetics in bipolar disorder.

BackgroundBipolar disorder (BD) is a psychiatric illness defined by pathological alterations between the mood states of mania and depression, causing disability, imposing healthcare costs and elevating the risk of suicide. Although effective treatments for BD exist, variability in outcomes leads to a large number of treatment failures, typically followed by a trial and error process of medication switches that can take years. Pharmacogenetic testing (PGT), by tailoring drug choice to an individual, may personalize and expedite treatment so as to identify more rapidly medications well suited to individual BD patients.DiscussionA number of associations have been made in BD between medication response phenotypes and specific genetic markers. However, to date clinical adoption of PGT has been limited, often citing questions that must be answered before it can be widely utilized. These include: What are the requirements of supporting evidence? How large is a clinically relevant effect? What degree of specificity and sensitivity are required? Does a given marker influence decision making and have clinical utility? In many cases, the answers to these questions remain unknown, and ultimately, the question of whether PGT is valid and useful must be determined empirically. Towards this aim, we have reviewed the literature and selected drug-genotype associations with the strongest evidence for utility in BD.SummaryBased upon these findings, we propose a preliminary panel for use in PGT, and a method by which the results of a PGT panel can be integrated for clinical interpretation. Finally, we argue that based on the sufficiency of accumulated evidence, PGT implementation studies are now warranted. We propose and discuss the design for a randomized clinical trial to test the use of PGT in the treatment of BD

Complete Genome Sequence of \u3ci\u3eRickettsia parkeri\u3c/i\u3e Strain Black Gap

A unique genotype of Rickettsia parkeri, designated R. parkeri strain Black Gap, has thus far been associated exclusively with the North American tick, Dermacentor parumapertus. The compete genome consists of a single circular chromosome with 1,329,522 bp and a G+C content of 32.5%

Analysis of Risk Factors for Fatal Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever: Evidence for Superiority of Tetracyclines for Therapy

Epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of fatal and nonfatal cases of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) were compared to identify risk factors for death caused by this disease. Confirmed and probable RMSF cases reported through US national surveillance for 1981- 1998 were analyzed. Among 6388 RMSF patients, 213 died (annual case-fatality rate, 3M; range, 4.9 % in 1982 to 1.1 % in 1996). Use of tetracycline-class antibiotics for treatment of RMSF increased significantly in the 1990s, compared with use in the 1980s. Older patients, patients treated with chloramphenicol only, patients for whom tetracycline antibiotics were not the primary therapy, and patients for whom treatment was delayed ≥5 days after the onset of symptoms were at higher risk for death. Although the case-fatality rate was lower in the 1990s than in the 1980s, risk factors for fatal RMSF were similar. Despite the availability of effective antibiotics, RMSF-related deaths continue to occur because of delayed diagnosis and failure to use appropriate therapy

Analysis of Risk Factors for Fatal Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever: Evidence for Superiority of Tetracyclines for Therapy

Epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of fatal and nonfatal cases of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) were compared to identify risk factors for death caused by this disease. Confirmed and probable RMSF cases reported through US national surveillance for 1981- 1998 were analyzed. Among 6388 RMSF patients, 213 died (annual case-fatality rate, 3M; range, 4.9 % in 1982 to 1.1 % in 1996). Use of tetracycline-class antibiotics for treatment of RMSF increased significantly in the 1990s, compared with use in the 1980s. Older patients, patients treated with chloramphenicol only, patients for whom tetracycline antibiotics were not the primary therapy, and patients for whom treatment was delayed ≥5 days after the onset of symptoms were at higher risk for death. Although the case-fatality rate was lower in the 1990s than in the 1980s, risk factors for fatal RMSF were similar. Despite the availability of effective antibiotics, RMSF-related deaths continue to occur because of delayed diagnosis and failure to use appropriate therapy

TLR2 and Nod2 Mediate Resistance or Susceptibility to Fatal Intracellular Ehrlichia Infection in Murine Models of Ehrlichiosis

Our murine models of human monocytic ehrlichiosis (HME) have shown that severe and fatal ehrlichiosis is due to generation of pathogenic T cell responses causing immunopathology and multi-organ failure. However, the early events in the liver, the main site of infection, are not well understood. In this study, we examined the liver transcriptome during the course of lethal and nonlethal infections caused by Ixodes ovatus Ehrlichia and Ehrlichia muris, respectively. On day 3 post-infection (p.i.), although most host genes were down regulated in the two groups of infected mice compared to naïve counterparts, lethal infection induced significantly higher expression of caspase 1, caspase 4, nucleotide binding oligomerization domain-containing proteins (Nod1), tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interleukin 10, and CCL7 compared to nonlethal infection. On day 7 p.i., lethal infection induced highly significant upregulation of type-1 interferon, several inflammatory cytokines and chemokines, which was associated with increased expression levels of Toll-like receptor-2 (TLR2), Nod2, MyD88, nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-kB), Caspase 4, NLRP1, NLRP12, Pycard, and IL-1β, suggesting enhanced TLR signals and inflammasomes activation. We next evaluated the participation of TLR2 and Nod2 in the host response during lethal Ehrlichia infection. Although lack of TLR2 impaired bacterial elimination and increased tissue necrosis, Nod2 deficiency attenuated pathology and enhanced bacterial clearance, which correlated with increased interferon-γ and interleukin-10 levels and a decreased frequency of pathogenic CD8+ T cells in response to lethal infection. Thus, these data indicate that Nod2, but not TLR2, contributes to susceptibility to severe Ehrlichia-induced shock. Together, our studies provide, for the first time, insight into the diversity of host factors and novel molecular pathogenic mechanisms that may contribute to severe HME. © 2013 Chattoraj et al

Body talk in the digital age: a controlled evaluation of a classroom-based intervention to reduce appearance commentary and improve body image

This research evaluates the efficacy of a classroom-based intervention – Body Talk in the Digital Age (BTIDA) – in reducing adolescents’ appearance commentary and improving body image. British adolescents (N = 314; AgeRange = 12–14) were cluster randomised to intervention or waiting-list control groups. Measures of appearance commentary, appearance ideal internalisation, self-objectification and body satisfaction were completed at baseline (T1), then one-week (T2) and eight-week (T3) post-intervention. Multi-level modelling showed girls who received BTIDA reported less appearance commentary engagement and thin ideal internalisation at T2 and T3, than the control, supporting the partial efficacy of BTIDA for girls. No intervention effects were found among boys