ANALYSIS OF THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF MAXIMUM CUMULATIVES OF RAINFALL IN THE LOBO BASIN (CENTRAL-WEST OF COTE D\u27IVOIRE)

This work study analyzes the future evolution of the maximum height of rains on three decades (2014-2023, 2024-2033 and 2034-2043). The WeaGETS third-order Markov model and calculation of climate index was respectively used to predict the field of daily rainfall for the period of 2014-2043 and to calculate three climate indices. The medium criterion of Nash 0.93 and the coefficient of determination medium R2 = 0.9994 for all the stations covering the zone of study shows a good performance of the Markov model. Annual maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1day) and annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5day) will decrease during the decades 2014 to 2023 and 2024 to 2033, and will increase from 2033 to 2043. While annual maximum consecutive 3-day precipitation (Rx3day) will know a decrease during the decade from 2024 to 2033 and an increase during the decades from 2014 to 2023 and from 2034 to 2043. Generally, the basin of Lobo will know an increase in these three climate indices over the entire period (2014-2043)

Diversite Phlebotomienne Dans Trois Villages De La Commune De Bouake (Côte D’ivoire) Durant La Periode De Mars A Juin 2019

La leishmaniose cutanée est une parasitose due à des protozoaires du genre Leishmania et répandue dans le monde. Une enquête médicale réalisée dans trois villages de la ville de Bouaké, autour de cas suspects de leishmaniose cutanée, a permis de confirmer la présence de cette pathologie dans ces villages. Dans le cadre de l’identification des acteurs du cycle épidémiologique de la leishmaniose cutanée, une étude entomologique a été conduite dans ces villages afin d’identifier les phlébotomes potentiels vecteurs de leishmanies. Les pièges huileux et les pièges lumineux CDC, ont été posés entre mars et juin 2019, suivant une méthode de rotation entre les sites de piégeage. Ils ont été posés entre 17h et 18h et relevés le lendemain matin entre 7h et 8h. La diversité spécifique des espèces identifiées a été déterminée à partir des indices écologiques d’équitabilité et de Hill. Ces pièges ont permis la capture de 135 phlébotomes, dont 78 ont été morphologiquement identifiés. Le genre Sergentomyia constituait 91% de nos récoltes contre 9% pour le genre Phlebotomus. Ph. bergeroti, Ph. rodhaini et Ph. sergenti étaient les espèces du genre Phlebotomus, capturées dans ces sites. Des travaux approfondis portant sur l’identification du parasite à la fois chez les phlébotomes et chez l’homme doivent être effectués, afin d’identifier les phlébotomes incriminés dans la transmission des leishmanies à Bouaké. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a parasitosis caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania and is widespread worldwide. A medical survey carried out in three villages of the city of Bouaké, around suspected cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis, confirmed the presence of this pathology in these villages. As part of the identification of the actors of the epidemiological cycle of cutaneous leishmaniasis, an entomological study was conducted in these villages in order to identify potential phlebotomus vectors of leishmaniasis. Oil traps and CDC light traps were set between March and June 2019, following a rotation method between trapping sites. They were set between 5:00 pm and 6:00 pm and were collected the next morning between 7:00 am and 8:00 am. The specific diversity of the identified species was determined from the ecological indices of equitability and Hill's ecological indices. These traps allowed the capture of 135 sandfish, 78 of which were morphologically identified. The genus Sergentomyia constituted 91% of our harvests against 9% for the genus Phlebotomus. Ph. bergeroti, Ph. rodhaini and Ph. sergenti were the species of the genus Phlebotomus caught at these sites. Further work on the identification of the parasite in both sandflies and humans should be carried out in order to identify the sandflies incriminated in the transmission of leishmania in Bouaké

Dynamique Passée et Récente et Prévision de L’occupation du Sol: cas du Bassin Versant de la Lobo (Centre – ouest de le Côte d’Ivore)

Le développement agricole et la forte croissance démographique ont contribué à la perte du couvert forestier ivoirien. L’objectif de cette étude est d’analyser l’évolution passée (1986 à 2019) et de prédire (2019 à 2050) l’occupation des sols dans le bassin versant de la Lobo. La classification supervisée par maximum de vraisemblance des images landsat de 1986, 2003 et 2019, couplée à la méthode intensity analysis a été appliquée dans cette étude. Les résultats montrent sur la période de 1986 à 2019 une baisse de la végétation de 4708,82 km2 à 4054,72 km2 au détriment de l’augmentation de la mosaïque des cultures et jachères de 6376,56 km2 à 6925,05 km2. Les plans d’eau et sols nus et bâtis ont également augmenté respectivement de 3,73 km2 et 101,88 km2. Par contre, les aires protégées sont restées inchangées avec une superficie de 1516,13 km2. Les changements des classes d’occupation du sol par intensity analysis ont été lent au premier intervalle de temps (1986-2019) mais s’accéléront au deuxième intervalle de temps (2019 à 2050). La mosaïque des cultures et jachères et la végétation ont connu respectivement des pertes de superficies moins intenses et plus intense, tandis que les autres classes ont gagné intensément de superficies durant le premier intervalle de temps. Pendant le deuxième intervalle de temps, seuls les plans d’eau et la mosaïque des cultures et jachères connaîtront des intensités de gains de superficies moins intenses. Il n’y a pas eu de transition des autres classes vers la végétation et la mosaïque des cultures sur toute la période d’étude (1986 à 2050).               Agricultural development and high demographic growth have contributed to the loss of ivorian forest cover. The objective of this study is to analyse the past (1986 to 2019) and  to predict (2019 to 2050) evolution of land use in the Lobo watershed. Supervised maximum likelihood classification of landsat images from 1986, 2003 and 2019, coupled with intensity analysis was applied in this study. The results show a decrease in vegetation from 4708.82 km2 to 4054.72 km2 over the period 1986 to 2019 at the expense of an increase in the mosaic of crops and fallow land from 6376.56 km2 to 6925.05 km2. Water bodies and bare and built-up land also increased by 3.73 km2and 101.88 km2 respectively. Protected areas, on the other hand, remained unchanged at 1516.13 km2. Changes in land use classes by using intensity of analysis were slow in the first time interval (1986-2019) but will accelerate in the second time interval (2019 to 2050). Crop and fallow mosaic and vegetation experienced less intense and more intense area losses respectively, while the other classes gained area intensively during the first time interval. During the second time interval, only water bodies and the crop-fallow mosaic will experience less intense area gains. There was no transition from the other classes to vegetation and crop mosaic over the entire study period (1986 to 2050)

ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL RAINFALL DATA BY MARKOVIAN APPROACH IN THE LOBO WATERSHED (WEST-CENTER OF CÔTE D’IVOIRE)

The rainfall deficit has become remarkable in recent decades in Côte d’Ivoire in general and particularly in the Lobo watershed. The objective of this study is to analyze rain behaviour using weather generator MulGETS based on first order Markov chains to two states. Daily data from 1984 to 2013 from 17 stations were used to predict daily precipitation data for the period 2021 to 2050. The results obtained show that the probability of having two successive dry years or two successive wet years is higher over the entire study area for the period 1984-2013. For the period 2021 to 2050, the probability of having two successive dry years and two successive wet years will be higher over the entire basin and in the south, center and north respectively. The probability of a wet year followed by a dry year will be higher in the south, west, northwest and north of the basin. The probability of a dry year followed by a wet year will be relatively high in the north, center and southwest of the basin

Trend of Extreme Precipitations Indices in West-central Côte d’Ivoire: Case of the Lobo Watershed

The Lobo watershed located in the west-central part of Côte d'Ivoire is an area with high agricultural potential, influenced by climate variations and changes that reduce crop yields. The objective of this study is to analyse trends in ETCCDI extreme rainfall indices from rainfall data from 1984 to 2013 using ClimPACT2 software. This study shows that the trend of the indices: number of consecutive wet days (CWD), number of rainy days (R1mm) and the cumulative annual total rainfall (PRCPTOT) is decreasing. On the other hand, the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) is on the rise. In general, the whole basin has experienced a decrease in rainfall as well as wet sequences and an increase in dry sequences. These different trends observed in this study are more pronounced in the northern half of the watershed.</jats:p

Trend of Extreme Precipitations Indices in West-central Côte d’Ivoire: Case of the Lobo Watershed

The Lobo watershed located in the west-central part of Côte d'Ivoire is an area with high agricultural potential, influenced by climate variations and changes that reduce crop yields. The objective of this study is to analyse trends in ETCCDI extreme rainfall indices from rainfall data from 1984 to 2013 using ClimPACT2 software. This study shows that the trend of the indices: number of consecutive wet days (CWD), number of rainy days (R1mm) and the cumulative annual total rainfall (PRCPTOT) is decreasing. On the other hand, the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) is on the rise. In general, the whole basin has experienced a decrease in rainfall as well as wet sequences and an increase in dry sequences. These different trends observed in this study are more pronounced in the northern half of the watershed.</jats:p