Capturing geographically-varying uncertainty in earthquake ground motion models or what we think we know may change

Our knowledge of earthquake ground motions of engineering significance varies geographically. The prediction of earthquake shaking in parts of the globe with high seismicity and a long history of observations from dense strong-motion networks, such as coastal California, much of Japan and central Italy, should be associated with lower uncertainty than ground-motion models for use in much of the rest of the world, where moderate and large earthquakes occur infrequently and monitoring networks are sparse or only recently installed. This variation in uncertainty, however, is not often captured in the models currently used for seismic hazard assessments, particularly for national or continental-scale studies. In this theme lecture, firstly I review recent proposals for developing ground-motion logic trees and then I develop and test a new approach for application in Europe. The proposed procedure is based on the backbone approach with scale factors that are derived to account for potential differences between regions. Weights are proposed for each of the logic-tree branches to model large epistemic uncertainty in the absence of local data. When local data are available these weights are updated so that the epistemic uncertainty captured by the logic tree reduces. I argue that this approach is more defensible than a logic tree populated by previously published ground-motion models. It should lead to more stable and robust seismic hazard assessments that capture our doubt over future earthquake shaking

Degradation of haloaromatic compounds

An ever increasing number of halogenated organic compounds has been produced by industry in the last few decades. These compounds are employed as biocides, for synthetic polymers, as solvents, and as synthetic intermediates. Production figures are often incomplete, and total production has frequently to be extrapolated from estimates for individual countries. Compounds of this type as a rule are highly persistent against biodegradation and belong, as "recalcitrant" chemicals, to the class of so-called xenobiotics. This term is used to characterise chemical substances which have no or limited structural analogy to natural compounds for which degradation pathways have evolved over billions of years. Xenobiotics frequently have some common features. e.g. high octanol/water partitioning coefficients and low water solubility which makes for a high accumulation ratio in the biosphere (bioaccumulation potential). Recalcitrant compounds therefore are found accumulated in mammals, especially in fat tissue, animal milk supplies and also in human milk. Highly sophisticated analytical techniques have been developed for the detection of organochlorines at the trace and ultratrace level

Polyamines release the let-7b-mediated suppression of initiation codon recognition during the protein synthesis of EXT2

Proteoglycans (PGs), a family of glycosaminoglycan (GAG)-protein glycoconjugates, contribute to animal physiology through interactions between their glycan chains and growth factors, chemokines and adhesion molecules. However, it remains unclear how GAG structures are changed during the aging process. Here, we found that polyamine levels are correlated with the expression level of heparan sulfate (HS) in human skin. In cultured cell lines, the EXT1 and EXT2 enzymes, initiating HS biosynthesis, were stimulated at the translational level by polyamines. Interestingly, the initiation codon recognition by 43S preinitiation complex during EXT2 translation is suppressed by let-7b, a member of the let-7 microRNA family, through binding at the N-terminal amino acid coding sequence in EXT2 mRNA. Let-7b-mediated suppression of initiation codon depends on the length of 5′-UTR of EXT2 mRNA and its suppression is inhibited in the presence of polyamines. These findings provide new insights into the HS biosynthesis related to miRNA and polyamines