Effect of Biodiversity Changes in Disease Risk: Exploring Disease Emergence in a Plant-Virus System

The effect of biodiversity on the ability of parasites to infect their host and cause disease (i.e. disease risk) is a major question in pathology, which is central to understand the emergence of infectious diseases, and to develop strategies for their management. Two hypotheses, which can be considered as extremes of a continuum, relate biodiversity to disease risk: One states that biodiversity is positively correlated with disease risk (Amplification Effect), and the second predicts a negative correlation between biodiversity and disease risk (Dilution Effect). Which of them applies better to different host-parasite systems is still a source of debate, due to limited experimental or empirical data. This is especially the case for viral diseases of plants. To address this subject, we have monitored for three years the prevalence of several viruses, and virus-associated symptoms, in populations of wild pepper (chiltepin) under different levels of human management. For each population, we also measured the habitat species diversity, host plant genetic diversity and host plant density. Results indicate that disease and infection risk increased with the level of human management, which was associated with decreased species diversity and host genetic diversity, and with increased host plant density. Importantly, species diversity of the habitat was the primary predictor of disease risk for wild chiltepin populations. This changed in managed populations where host genetic diversity was the primary predictor. Host density was generally a poorer predictor of disease and infection risk. These results support the dilution effect hypothesis, and underline the relevance of different ecological factors in determining disease/infection risk in host plant populations under different levels of anthropic influence. These results are relevant for managing plant diseases and for establishing conservation policies for endangered plant species

A Conceptual Framework for Healthy Eating Behavior in Ecuadorian Adolescents: A Qualitative Study

Objective: The objective of this study was to identify factors influencing eating behavior of Ecuadorian adolescents - from the perspective of parents, school staff and adolescents - to develop a conceptual framework for adolescents’ eating behavior. Study design: Twenty focus groups (N = 144 participants) were conducted separately with adolescents aged 11–15 y (n (focus groups) = 12, N (participants) = 80), parents (n = 4, N = 32) and school staff (n = 4, N = 32) in rural and urban Ecuador. A semi-structured questioning route was developed based on the ‘Attitude, Social influences and Self-efficacy’ model and the socio-ecological model to assess the relevance of behavioral and environmental factors in low- and middle-income countries. Two researchers independently analyzed verbatim transcripts for emerging themes, using deductive thematic content analysis. Data were analyzed using NVivo 8. Results: All groups recognized the importance of eating healthily and key individual factors in Ecuadorian adolescents’ food choices were: financial autonomy, food safety perceptions, lack of self-control, habit strength, taste preferences and perceived peer norms. Environmental factors included the poor nutritional quality of food and its easy access at school. In their home and family environment, time and convenience completed the picture as barriers to eating healthily. Participants acknowledged the impact of the changing socio-cultural environment on adolescents’ eating patterns. Availability of healthy food at home and financial constraints differed between settings and socio-economic groups. Conclusion: Our findings endorse the importance of investigating behavioral and environmental factors that influence and mediate healthy dietary behavior prior to intervention development. Several culture-specific factors emerged that were incorporated into a conceptual framework for developing health promotion interventions in Ecuador

Influences on gum feeding in primates

This chapter reviews the factors that may affect patterns of gum feeding by primates. These are then examined for mixed-species troops of saddleback (S. fuscicollis) and mustached (S. mystax) tamarins. An important distinction is made between gums produced by tree trunks and branches as a result of damage and those produced by seed pods as part of a dispersal strategy as these may be expected to differ in their biochemistry. Feeding on fruit and Parkia seed pod exudates was more prevalent in the morning whereas other exudates were eaten in the afternoon. This itinerary may represent a deliberate strategy to retain trunk gums in the gut overnight, thus maximising the potential for microbial fermentation of their β-linked oligosaccharides. Both types of exudates were eaten more in the dry than the wet season. Consumption was linked to seasonal changes in resource availability and not the tamarins’ reproductive status pro-viding no support for the suggestion that gums are eaten as a pri-mary calcium source in the later stages of gestation and lactation. The role of availability in determining patterns of consumption is further supported by the finding that dietary overlap for the trunk gums eaten was greater between species within mixed-species troops within years than it was within species between years. These data and those for pygmy marmosets (Cebuella pygmaea) suggest that patterns of primate gummivory may reflect the interaction of prefer-ence and availability for both those able to stimulate gum production and those not

Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Understanding how human influence on climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties and is likely to remain so using current methods for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider novel ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations

Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~ 60 km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959–2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2–4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14–16). The skill is related to the successful prediction of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the successful simulation of ENSO teleconnections to southern Africa. However, overall skill is sensitive to the inclusion of strong La-Nina events and also appears to change with forecast epoch. For example, the skill in predicting precipitation over Mozambique is significantly larger for the first summer in the 1990–2016 period, compared to the 1959–1985 period. The difference in skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability over southern Africa in different epochs is consistent with a change in the strength of the observed teleconnections of ENSO. After 1990, and consistent with the increased skill, the observed impact of ENSO appears to strengthen over west Mozambique, in association with changes in ENSO related atmospheric convergence anomalies. However, these apparent changes in teleconnections are not captured by the ensemble-mean predictions using DePreSys3. The changes in the ENSO teleconnection are consistent with a warming over the Indian Ocean and modulation of ENSO properties between the different epochs, but may also be associated with unpredictable atmospheric variability

Using formative research to develop CHANGE! : a curriculum-based physical activity promoting intervention

Background : Low childhood physical activity levels are currently one of the most pressing public health concerns. Numerous school-based physical activity interventions have been conducted with varied success. Identifying effective child-based physical activity interventions are warranted. The purpose of this formative study was to elicit subjective views of children, their parents, and teachers about physical activity to inform the design of the CHANGE! (Children\u27s Health, Activity, and Nutrition: Get Educated!) intervention programme. Methods : Semi-structured mixed-gender interviews (group and individual) were conducted in 11 primary schools, stratified by socioeconomic status, with 60 children aged 9-10 years (24 boys, 36 girls), 33 parents (4 male, 29 female) and 10 teachers (4 male, 6 female). Questions for interviews were structured around the PRECEDE stage of the PRECEDE-PROCEDE model and addressed knowledge, attitudes and beliefs towards physical activity, as well as views on barriers to participation. All data were transcribed verbatim. Pen profiles were constructed from the transcripts in a deductive manner using the Youth Physical Activity Promotion Model framework. The profiles represented analysis outcomes via a diagram of key emergent themes. Results : Analyses revealed an understanding of the relationship between physical activity and health, although some children had limited understanding of what constitutes physical activity. Views elicited by children and parents were generally consistent. Fun, enjoyment and social support were important predictors of physical activity participation, though several barriers such as lack of parental support were identified across all group interviews. The perception of family invested time was positively linked to physical activity engagement. Conclusions : Families have a powerful and important role in promoting health-enhancing behaviours. Involvement of parents and the whole family is a strategy that could be significant to increase children\u27s physical activity levels. Addressing various perceived barriers to such behaviours therefore, remains imperative. <br /

Sources of stakeholder salience in the responsible investment movement: why do investors sign the Principles for Responsible Investment?

Since its inception in 2006, the United Nations-backed Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) have grown to over 1300 signatories representing over $45 trillion. This growth is not slowing down. In this paper, we argue that there is a set of attributes which make the PRI salient as a stakeholder and its claim to sign the six PRI important to institutional investors. We use Mitchell et al.’s (Acad Manag Rev 22:853–886, 1997) theoretical framework of stakeholder salience, as extended by Gifford (J Bus Eth 92:79–97, 2010). We use as evidence confidential data from the annual survey of signatories carried out by the PRI in a 5-year period between 2007 and 2011. The findings highlight pragmatic and organizational legitimacy, normative and utilitarian power, and management values as the attributes that contribute most to the salience of the PRI as a stakeholder

Stability in the feeding practices and styles of low-income mothers: Questionnaire and observational analyses

© 2018 The Author(s). Background: During the last two decades, researchers have devoted considerable attention to the role of maternal feeding behaviors, practices, and styles in the development of obesity in young children. Little is known, however, about the consistency of maternal feeding across settings and time. The purpose of this paper was to provide data on this issue by examining the consistency of observed maternal feeding behavior across multiple eating occasions, as well as examine the consistency of observed and self-reported maternal feeding behavior across 18 months. Methods: Videotapes from two studies of low-income mothers and their preschool children were coded for feeding practices, dimensions, and styles: a study of 137 low-income, African American and Latina mothers and their children observed during three meals in their homes over a two to three week period, and a study of 138 low-income, Latina mothers observed during a buffet meal in a laboratory setting on two separate occasions 18 months apart. Videotapes from both studies were coded for a wide range of maternal feeding behaviors and strategies. Mothers in the second study also completed three validated, self-report questionnaires on their feeding practices and styles. Results: Overall, both observed and self-reported feeding practices and styles showed only moderate levels of stability across meals and over time. Maternal attempts to regulate children's eating showed more stability across meals and over time than the content of general mealtime conversation. Also, greater stability was found in what mothers were trying to get their children to do during the meals than in the strategies they used to influence child behavior. Self-reports of feeding showed greater stability over time than observational measures. Across meals and across 18 months, the stability of general feeding styles was between 40% and 50%. Conclusions: The findings demonstrate that maternal feeding behavior was only moderately stable across meals and over time-that is, feeding behavior varied considerably across situations. The lack of high levels of consistency in feeding behavior suggests that situational factors may play a major role in influencing maternal behavior as well. Family-focused childhood obesity programs should focus not only on helping parents change their feeding practices and styles, but also focus on increasing parents' sensitivity to situational factors that affect their approach to feeding their children

A comparison of machine learning methods for predicting recurrence and death after curative-intent radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer: Development and validation of multivariable clinical prediction models.

Background Surveillance is universally recommended for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with curative-intent radiotherapy. High-quality evidence to inform optimal surveillance strategies is lacking. Machine learning demonstrates promise in accurate outcome prediction for a variety of health conditions. The purpose of this study was to utilise readily available patient, tumour, and treatment data to develop, validate and externally test machine learning models for predicting recurrence, recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) at 2 years from treatment. Methods A retrospective, multicentre study of patients receiving curative-intent radiotherapy for NSCLC was undertaken. A total of 657 patients from 5 hospitals were eligible for inclusion. Data pre-processing derived 34 features for predictive modelling. Combinations of 8 feature reduction methods and 10 machine learning classification algorithms were compared, producing risk-stratification models for predicting recurrence, RFS and OS. Models were compared with 10-fold cross validation and an external test set and benchmarked against TNM-stage and performance status. Youden Index was derived from validation set ROC curves to distinguish high and low risk groups and Kaplan-Meier analyses performed. Findings Median follow-up time was 852 days. Parameters were well matched across training-validation and external test sets: Mean age was 73 and 71 respectively, and recurrence, RFS and OS rates at 2 years were 43% vs 34%, 54% vs 47% and 54% vs 47% respectively. The respective validation and test set AUCs were as follows: 1) RFS: 0·682 (0·575–0·788) and 0·681 (0·597–0·766), 2) Recurrence: 0·687 (0·582–0·793) and 0·722 (0·635–0·81), and 3) OS: 0·759 (0·663–0·855) and 0·717 (0·634–0·8). Our models were superior to TNM stage and performance status in predicting recurrence and OS. Interpretation This robust and ready to use machine learning method, validated and externally tested, sets the stage for future clinical trials entailing quantitative personalised risk-stratification and surveillance following curative-intent radiotherapy for NSCLC. Funding A full list of funding bodies that contributed to this study can be found in the Acknowledgements section