Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area

Vectorizable algorithms for adaptive schemes for rapid analysis of SSME flows

An initial study into vectorizable algorithms for use in adaptive schemes for various types of boundary value problems is described. The focus is on two key aspects of adaptive computational methods which are crucial in the use of such methods (for complex flow simulations such as those in the Space Shuttle Main Engine): the adaptive scheme itself and the applicability of element-by-element matrix computations in a vectorizable format for rapid calculations in adaptive mesh procedures

Energetic Neutral Atom Precipitation (ENAP)

The Energetic Neutral Atom Precipitation experiment is scheduled to be flown on the Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science (ATLAS 1) NASA mission. The objective of this experiment is to measure very faint emissions at nighttime arising from fluxes of energetic neutral atoms in the thermosphere. These energetic atoms have energies ranging up to about 50 keV, and arise from ions of hydrogen, helium, and oxygen trapped in the inner magnetosphere. Some of these ions become neutralized in charge exchange reactions with neutral hydrogen in the hydrogen geocorona that extends through the region. The ions are trapped on magnetic field lines which cross the equatorial plane at 2 to 6 earth radii distance, and they mirror at a range of heights on these field lines, extending down to the thermosphere at 500 km altitude. The ATLAS 1 measurements will not be of the neutral atoms themselves but of the optical emission produced by those on trajectories that intersect the thermosphere. The ENAP measurements are to be made using the Imaging Spectrometric Observatory (ISO) which is being flown on the ATLAS mission primarily for daytime spectral observations, and the ENAP measurements will all be nighttime measurements because of the faintness of the emissions and the relatively low level of magnetic activity expected

Permanent and transitory policy shocks in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information

Despite a large literature documenting that the efficacy of monetary policy depends on how inflation expectations are anchored, many monetary policy models assume: (1) the inflation target of monetary policy is constant; and, (2) the inflation target is known by all economic agents. This paper proposes an empirical specification with two policy shocks: permanent changes to the inflation target and transitory perturbations of the short-term real rate. The public sector cannot correctly distinguish between these two shocks and, under incomplete learning, private perceptions of the inflation target will not equal the true target. The paper shows how imperfect policy credibility can affect economic responses to structural shocks, including transition to a new inflation target - a question that cannot be addressed by many commonly used empirical and theoretical models. In contrast to models where all monetary policy actions are transient, the proposed specification implies that sizable movements in historical bond yields and inflation are attributable to perceptions of permanent shocks in target inflation

Revision of Star-Formation Measures

Rotation plays a major role in the evolution of massive stars. A revised grid of stellar evolutionary tracks accounting for rotation has recently been released by the Geneva group and implemented into the Starburst99 evolutionary synthesis code. Massive stars are predicted to be hotter and more luminous than previously thought, and the spectral energy distributions of young populations mirror this trend. The hydrogen ionizing continuum in particular increases by a factor of up to 3 in the presence of rotating massive stars. The effects of rotation generally increase towards shorter wavelengths and with decreasing metallicity. Revised relations between star-formation rates and monochromatic luminosities for the new stellar models are presented.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, to appear in IAU Symp. 255, Low-Metallicity Star Formation, ed. L. Hunt, S. Madden, & R. Schneider (Cambridge: CUP

Perhaps the FOMC did what it said it did : an alternative interpretation of the Great Inflation

This paper uses real-time briefing forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to provide estimates of historical changes in the design of US monetary policy an in the implied central bank target for inflation. Empirical results and FOMC transcripts support a neglected interpretation of policy during the Great inflation of the 1970’sFederal Open Market Committee

Term Structure Transmission of Monetary Policy

Under bond-rate transmission of monetary policy, the authors show that a generalized Taylor Principle applies, in which the average anticipated path of policy responses to inflation is subject to a lower bound of unity. This result helps explain how bond rates may exhibit stable responses to inflation, even in periods of passive policy. Another possible explanation is time-varying term premiums with risk pricing that depends on inflation. The authors present a no-arbitrage model of the term structure with horizon-dependent policy perceptions and time-varying term premiums to illustrate the mechanics and provide empirical results that support these transmission channels.Interest rates; Transmission of monetary policy

Minding the gap : central bank estimates of the unemployment natural rate

A time-varying parameter framework is suggested for use with real-time multiperiod forecast data to estimate implied forecast equations. The framework is applied to historical briefing forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee to estimate the U.S. central bank’s ex ante perceptions of the natural rate of unemployment. Relative to retrospective estimates, empirical results do not indicate severe underestimation of the natural rate of unemployment in the 1970s.Unemployment

Parallel Treebanks in Phrase-Based Statistical Machine Translation

Given much recent discussion and the shift in focus of the field, it is becoming apparent that the incorporation of syntax is the way forward for the current state-of-the-art in machine translation (MT). Parallel treebanks are a relatively recent innovation and appear to be ideal candidates for MT training material. However, until recently there has been no other means to build them than by hand. In this paper, we describe how we make use of new tools to automatically build a large parallel treebank and extract a set of linguistically motivated phrase pairs from it. We show that adding these phrase pairs to the translation model of a baseline phrase-based statistical MT (PBSMT) system leads to significant improvements in translation quality. We describe further experiments on incorporating parallel treebank information into PBSMT, such as word alignments. We investigate the conditions under which the incorporation of parallel treebank data performs optimally. Finally, we discuss the potential of parallel treebanks in other paradigms of MT

Daily changes in global cloud cover and Earth transits of the heliospheric current sheet

Changes in cloud cover are found to occur for periods of a few days following Earth transits of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), provided also that the transits occur in years of high stratospheric aerosol loading. Using global cloud products from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) D1 data series, epoch superposition analyses were made for various samples of HCS events. For the period August 1991 to June 1994 for the stratospheric aerosol loading due to the Pinatubo eruption, the analysis of the data in 30° geomagnetic latitude intervals revealed that cloud anomalies that were significant and negative were located in the Southern Hemisphere high and middle latitudes, and anomalies that were significant and positive were found in both hemispheres at low latitudes. When the key days in the superposed epoch analysis were determined by minima in the relativistic electron flux, rather than by the HCS crossings, the location of the significant negative anomalies was in the northern high latitudes, and the location of the significant positive anomalies was in middle latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The spatial and temporal patterns of these cloud cover variations are in broad agreement with the expected opposite variations at high and low latitudes of the current density Jz in the global electric circuit caused by the relativistic electron flux variations, during periods when the aerosol loading has made a large increase in stratospheric resistivity