Methods of tropical optimization in rating alternatives based on pairwise comparisons

We apply methods of tropical optimization to handle problems of rating alternatives on the basis of the log-Chebyshev approximation of pairwise comparison matrices. We derive a direct solution in a closed form, and investigate the obtained solution when it is not unique. Provided the approximation problem yields a set of score vectors, rather than a unique (up to a constant factor) one, we find those vectors in the set, which least and most differentiate between the alternatives with the highest and lowest scores, and thus can be representative of the entire solution.Comment: 9 pages, presented at the Annual Intern. Conf. of the German Operations Research Society (GOR), Helmut Schmidt University Hamburg, Germany, August 30 - September 2, 201

A framework for the selection of the right nuclear power plant

Civil nuclear reactors are used for the production of electrical energy. In the nuclear industry vendors propose several nuclear reactor designs with a size from 35–45 MWe up to 1600–1700 MWe. The choice of the right design is a multidimensional problem since a utility has to include not only financial factors as levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) and internal rate of return (IRR), but also the so called “external factors” like the required spinning reserve, the impact on local industry and the social acceptability. Therefore it is necessary to balance advantages and disadvantages of each design during the entire life cycle of the plant, usually 40–60 years. In the scientific literature there are several techniques for solving this multidimensional problem. Unfortunately it does not seem possible to apply these methodologies as they are, since the problem is too complex and it is difficult to provide consistent and trustworthy expert judgments. This paper fills the gap, proposing a two-step framework to choosing the best nuclear reactor at the pre-feasibility study phase. The paper shows in detail how to use the methodology, comparing the choice of a small-medium reactor (SMR) with a large reactor (LR), characterised, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (2006), by an electrical output respectively lower and higher than 700 MWe

Influence of aggregation and measurement scale on ranking a compromise alternative in AHP

Author's pre-print version dated 20. December 2009 deposited in Munich Personal RePEc Archive. Final version published by Palgrave Macmillan; available online at http:// www.palgrave-journals.com/Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is one of the most popular multi-attribute decision aid methods. However, within AHP, there are several competing preference measurement scales and aggregation techniques. In this paper, we compare these possibilities using a decision problem with an inherent trade-off between two criteria. A decision-maker has to choose among three alternatives: two extremes and one compromise. Six different measurement scales described previously in the literature and the new proposed logarithmic scale are considered for applying the additive and the multiplicative aggregation techniques. The results are compared with the standard consumer choice theory. We find that with the geometric and power scales a compromise is never selected when aggregation is additive and rarely when aggregation is multiplicative, while the logarithmic scale used with the multiplicative aggregation most often selects the compromise that is desirable by consumer choice theory

On reducing inconsistency of pairwise comparison matrices below an acceptance threshold

A recent work of the authors on the analysis of pairwise comparison matrices that can be made consistent by the modification of a few elements is continued and extended. Inconsistency indices are defined for indicating the overall quality of a pairwise comparison matrix. It is expected that serious contradictions in the matrix imply high inconsistency and vice versa. However, in the 35-year history of the applications of pairwise comparison matrices, only one of the indices, namely CR proposed by Saaty, has been associated to a general level of acceptance, by the well known ten percent rule. In the paper, we consider a wide class of inconsistency indices, including CR, CM proposed by Koczkodaj and Duszak and CI by Pel\'aez and Lamata. Assume that a threshold of acceptable inconsistency is given (for CR it can be 0.1). The aim is to find the minimal number of matrix elements, the appropriate modification of which makes the matrix acceptable. On the other hand, given the maximal number of modifiable matrix elements, the aim is to find the minimal level of inconsistency that can be achieved. In both cases the solution is derived from a nonlinear mixed-integer optimization problem. Results are applicable in decision support systems that allow real time interaction with the decision maker in order to review pairwise comparison matrices.Comment: 20 page

Pairwise comparison matrices and the error-free property of the decision maker

Pairwise comparison is a popular assessment method either for deriving criteria-weights or for evaluating alternatives according to a given criterion. In real-world applications consistency of the comparisons rarely happens: intransitivity can occur. The aim of the paper is to discuss the relationship between the consistency of the decision maker—described with the error-free property—and the consistency of the pairwise comparison matrix (PCM). The concept of error-free matrix is used to demonstrate that consistency of the PCM is not a sufficient condition of the error-free property of the decision maker. Informed and uninformed decision makers are defined. In the first stage of an assessment method a consistent or near-consistent matrix should be achieved: detecting, measuring and improving consistency are part of any procedure with both types of decision makers. In the second stage additional information are needed to reveal the decision maker’s real preferences. Interactive questioning procedures are recommended to reach that goal

A matter of words: NLP for quality evaluation of Wikipedia medical articles

Automatic quality evaluation of Web information is a task with many fields of applications and of great relevance, especially in critical domains like the medical one. We move from the intuition that the quality of content of medical Web documents is affected by features related with the specific domain. First, the usage of a specific vocabulary (Domain Informativeness); then, the adoption of specific codes (like those used in the infoboxes of Wikipedia articles) and the type of document (e.g., historical and technical ones). In this paper, we propose to leverage specific domain features to improve the results of the evaluation of Wikipedia medical articles. In particular, we evaluate the articles adopting an "actionable" model, whose features are related to the content of the articles, so that the model can also directly suggest strategies for improving a given article quality. We rely on Natural Language Processing (NLP) and dictionaries-based techniques in order to extract the bio-medical concepts in a text. We prove the effectiveness of our approach by classifying the medical articles of the Wikipedia Medicine Portal, which have been previously manually labeled by the Wiki Project team. The results of our experiments confirm that, by considering domain-oriented features, it is possible to obtain sensible improvements with respect to existing solutions, mainly for those articles that other approaches have less correctly classified. Other than being interesting by their own, the results call for further research in the area of domain specific features suitable for Web data quality assessment

A proposed quantitative methodology for the evaluation of the effectiveness of Human Element, Leadership and Management (HELM) training in the UK

In 2006, a review of maritime accidents found that non-technical skills (NTSs) are the single largest contributing factor towards such incidents. NTSs are composed of both interpersonal and cognitive elements. These include things such as situational awareness, teamwork, decision making, leadership, management and communication skills. In a crisis situation, good NTSs allow a deck officer to quickly recognise that a problem exists and then harness the resources that are at their disposal to safely and efficiently bring the situation back under control. This paper has two aims. The first is to develop a methodology which will enable educators to quantitatively assess the impact of Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA)-approved Human Element, Leadership and Management (HELM) training on deck officer’s NTSs with a view to identifying further training requirements. The second is to determine whether the HELM training provided to develop the NTSs of trainee deck officers is fit for purpose. To achieve these aims, a three-phase approach was adopted. Initially, a taxonomy for deck officer’s NTSs is established, behavioural markers are identified and the relative importance of each attribute is calculated using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Subsequently, a set of scenarios were identified for the assessment of deck officer’s NTSs in a ship bridge simulator environment. A random selection of students that have completed the Chief Mate (CM) programme was performed, and data regarding their NTS-related performance in the scenarios was collected. Finally, the collected data was fed into the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm, utility values were produced and, having established these values, the effectiveness of the HELM training that the students have received was then evaluated

On pairwise comparison matrices that can be made consistent by the modification of a few elements

Pairwise comparison matrices are often used in Multi-attribute Decision Making forweighting the attributes or for the evaluation of the alternatives with respect to a criteria. Matrices provided by the decision makers are rarely consistent and it is important to index the degree of inconsistency. In the paper, the minimal number of matrix elements by the modification of which the pairwise comparison matrix can be made consistent is examined. From practical point of view, the modification of 1, 2, or, for larger matrices, 3 elements seems to be relevant. These cases are characterized by using the graph representation of the matrices. Empirical examples illustrate that pairwise comparison matrices that can be made consistent by the modification of a few elements are present in the applications

User needs elicitation via analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A case study on a Computed Tomography (CT) scanner

Background: The rigorous elicitation of user needs is a crucial step for both medical device design and purchasing. However, user needs elicitation is often based on qualitative methods whose findings can be difficult to integrate into medical decision-making. This paper describes the application of AHP to elicit user needs for a new CT scanner for use in a public hospital. Methods: AHP was used to design a hierarchy of 12 needs for a new CT scanner, grouped into 4 homogenous categories, and to prepare a paper questionnaire to investigate the relative priorities of these. The questionnaire was completed by 5 senior clinicians working in a variety of clinical specialisations and departments in the same Italian public hospital. Results: Although safety and performance were considered the most important issues, user needs changed according to clinical scenario. For elective surgery, the five most important needs were: spatial resolution, processing software, radiation dose, patient monitoring, and contrast medium. For emergency, the top five most important needs were: patient monitoring, radiation dose, contrast medium control, speed run, spatial resolution. Conclusions: AHP effectively supported user need elicitation, helping to develop an analytic and intelligible framework of decision-making. User needs varied according to working scenario (elective versus emergency medicine) more than clinical specialization. This method should be considered by practitioners involved in decisions about new medical technology, whether that be during device design or before deciding whether to allocate budgets for new medical devices according to clinical functions or according to hospital department

Prospective modelling of environmental dynamics. A methodological comparison applied to mountain land cover changes

During the last 10 years, scientists performed significant advances in modelling environmental dynamics. A wide range of new methodological approaches in geomatics - such as neural networks, multi-agent systems or fuzzy logics - was developed. Despite these progresses, the modelling softwares available have to be considered as experimental tools rather than as improved procedures able to work for environmental management or decision support. Particularly, the authors consider that a large number of publications suffer from lakes in the validation of the model results. This contribution describes three different modelling approaches applied to prospective land cover prediction. The first one, a combined geomatic method, uses Markov chains for temporal transition prediction while their spatial assignment is supervised manually by the construction of suitability maps. Compared to this directed method, the two others may be considered as semi automatic because both the polychotomous regression and the multilayer perceptron only need to be optimized during a training step - the algorithms detect themselves the spatial-temporal changes in land cover. The authors describe the three methodological approaches and their practical applications to two mountain studied areas: one in French Pyrenees, the second including a large part of Sierra Nevada, Spain. The article focuses on the comparison of results. The main result is that prediction scores are on the more high that land cover is persistent. They also underline that the geomatic model is complementary to the statistical ones which perform higher overall prediction rate but produce worse simulations when land cover changes are numerous