Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity

In modern portfolio theory, the balancing of expected returns on investments against uncertainties in those returns is aided by the use of utility functions. The Kelly criterion offers another approach, rooted in information theory, that always implies logarithmic utility. The two approaches seem incompatible, too loosely or too tightly constraining investors' risk preferences, from their respective perspectives. The conflict can be understood on the basis that the multiplicative models used in both approaches are non-ergodic which leads to ensemble-average returns differing from time-average returns in single realizations. The classic treatments, from the very beginning of probability theory, use ensemble-averages, whereas the Kelly-result is obtained by considering time-averages. Maximizing the time-average growth rates for an investment defines an optimal leverage, whereas growth rates derived from ensemble-average returns depend linearly on leverage. The latter measure can thus incentivize investors to maximize leverage, which is detrimental to time-average growth and overall market stability. The Sharpe ratio is insensitive to leverage. Its relation to optimal leverage is discussed. A better understanding of the significance of time-irreversibility and non-ergodicity and the resulting bounds on leverage may help policy makers in reshaping financial risk controls.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures. Updated figures and extended discussion of ergodicit

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns

Cerebrospinal fluid biomarker candidates associated with human WNV neuroinvasive disease

During the last decade, the epidemiology of WNV in humans has changed in the southern regions of Europe, with high incidence of West Nile fever (WNF) cases, but also of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND). The lack of human vaccine or specific treatment against WNV infection imparts a pressing need to characterize indicators associated with neurological involvement. By its intimacy with central nervous system (CNS) structures, modifications in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) composition could accurately reflect CNS pathological process. Until now, few studies investigated the association between imbalance of CSF elements and severity of WNV infection. The aim of the present study was to apply the iTRAQ technology in order to identify the CSF proteins whose abundances are modified in patients with WNND. Forty-seven proteins were found modified in the CSF of WNND patients as compared to control groups, and most of them are reported for the first time in the context of WNND. On the basis of their known biological functions, several of these proteins were associated with inflammatory response. Among them, Defensin-1 alpha (DEFA1), a protein reported with anti-viral effects, presente

Incidence and Outcome of Acute Phosphate Nephropathy in Iceland

To access publisher full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links fieldBACKGROUND: Oral sodium phosphate solutions (OSPS) are widely used for bowel cleansing prior to colonoscopy and other procedures. Cases of renal failure due to acute phosphate nephropathy following OSPS ingestion have been documented in recent years, questioning the safety of OSPS. However, the magnitude of the problem remains unknown. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a population based, retrospective analysis of medical records and biopsies of all cases of acute phosphate nephropathy that were diagnosed in our country in the period from January 2005 to October 2008. Utilizing the complete official sales figures of OSPS, we calculated the incidence of acute phosphate nephropathy in our country. Fifteen cases of acute phosphate nephropathy were diagnosed per 17,651 sold doses of OSPS (0.085%). Nine (60%) were women and mean age 69 years (range 56-75 years). Thirteen patients had a history of hypertension (87%) all of whom were treated with either ACE-I or ARB and/or diuretics. One patient had underlying DM type I and an active colitis and one patient had no risk factor for the development of acute phosphate nephropathy. Average baseline creatinine was 81.7 µmol/L and 180.1 at the discovery of acute renal failure, mean 4.2 months after OSPS ingestion. No patient had a full recovery of renal function, and at the end of follow-up, 26.6 months after the OSPS ingestion, the average creatinine was 184.2 µmol/L. The average eGFR declined from 73.5 ml/min/1.73 m(2) at baseline to 37.3 ml/min/1.73 m(2) at the end of follow-up. One patient reached end-stage renal disease and one patient died with progressive renal failure. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Acute phosphate nephropathy developed in almost one out of thousand sold doses of OSPS. The consequences for kidney function were detrimental. This information can be used in other populations to estimate the impact of OSPS. Our data suggest that acute phosphate nephropathy may be greatly underreported worldwide

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Identification and Filtering of Uncharacteristic Noise in the CMS Hadron Calorimeter

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A national survey on the patterns of treatment of inflammatory bowel disease in Canada

BACKGROUND: There is a general lack of information on the care of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in a broad, geographically diverse, non-clinic population. The purposes of this study were (1) to compare a sample drawn from the membership of a national Crohn's and Colitis Foundation to published clinic-based and population-based IBD samples, (2) to describe current patterns of health care use, and (3) to determine if unexpected variations exist in how and by whom IBD is treated. METHODS: Mailed survey of 4453 members of the Crohn's and Colitis Foundation of Canada. The questionnaire, in members stated language of preference, included items on demographic and disease characteristics, general health behaviors and current and past IBD treatment. Each member received an initial and one reminder mailing. RESULTS: Questionnaires were returned by 1787, 913, and 128 people with Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis and indeterminate colitis, respectively. At least one operation had been performed on 1159 Crohn's disease patients, with risk increasing with duration of disease. Regional variation in surgical rates in ulcerative colitis patients was identified. 6-Mercaptopurine/Azathioprine was used by 24% of patients with Crohn's disease and 12% of patients with ulcerative colitis (95% CI for the difference: 8.9% – 15%). In patients with Crohn's disease, use was not associated with gender, income or region of residence but was associated with age and markers of disease activity. Infliximab was used by 112 respondents (4%), the majority of whom had Crohn's disease. Variations in infliximab use based on region of residence and income were not seen. Sixty-eight percent of respondents indicated that they depended most on a gastroenterologist for their IBD care. There was significant regional variation in this. However, satisfaction with primary physician did not depend on physician type (for example, gastroenterologist versus general practitioner). CONCLUSION: This study achieved the goal of obtaining a large, geographically diverse sample that is more representative of the general IBD population than a clinic sample would have been. We could find no evidence of significant regional variation in medical treatments due to gender, region of residence or income level. Differences were noted between different age groups, which deserves further attention

Performance of CMS hadron calorimeter timing and synchronization using test beam, cosmic ray, and LHC beam data

This paper discusses the design and performance of the time measurement technique and of the synchronization systems of the CMS hadron calorimeter. Time measurement performance results are presented from test beam data taken in the years 2004 and 2006. For hadronic showers of energy greater than 100 GeV, the timing resolution is measured to be about 1.2 ns. Time synchronization and out-of-time background rejection results are presented from the Cosmic Run At Four Tesla and LHC beam runs taken in the Autumn of 2008. The inter-channel synchronization is measured to be within ±2 ns

Elite Suppressor–Derived HIV-1 Envelope Glycoproteins Exhibit Reduced Entry Efficiency and Kinetics

Elite suppressors (ES) are a rare subset of HIV-1–infected individuals who are able to maintain HIV-1 viral loads below the limit of detection by ultra-sensitive clinical assays in the absence of antiretroviral therapy. Mechanism(s) responsible for this elite control are poorly understood but likely involve both host and viral factors. This study assesses ES plasma-derived envelope glycoprotein (env) fitness as a function of entry efficiency as a possible contributor to viral suppression. Fitness of virus entry was first evaluated using a novel inducible cell line with controlled surface expression levels of CD4 (receptor) and CCR5 (co-receptor). In the context of physiologic CCR5 and CD4 surface densities, ES envs exhibited significantly decreased entry efficiency relative to chronically infected viremic progressors. ES envs also demonstrated slow entry kinetics indicating the presence of virus with reduced entry fitness. Overall, ES env clones were less efficient at mediating entry than chronic progressor envs. Interestingly, acute infection envs exhibited an intermediate phenotypic pattern not distinctly different from ES or chronic progressor envs. These results imply that lower env fitness may be established early and may directly contribute to viral suppression in ES individuals

Drug-Class Specific Impact of Antivirals on the Reproductive Capacity of HIV

Predictive markers linking drug efficacy to clinical outcome are a key component in the drug discovery and development process. In HIV infection, two different measures, viral load decay and phenotypic assays, are used to assess drug efficacy in vivo and in vitro. For the newly introduced class of integrase inhibitors, a huge discrepancy between these two measures of efficacy was observed. Hence, a thorough understanding of the relation between these two measures of drug efficacy is imperative for guiding future drug discovery and development activities in HIV. In this article, we developed a novel viral dynamics model, which allows for a mechanistic integration of the mode of action of all approved drugs and drugs in late clinical trials. Subsequently, we established a link between in vivo and in vitro measures of drug efficacy, and extract important determinants of drug efficacy in vivo. The analysis is based on a new quantity—the reproductive capacity—that represents in mathematical terms the in vivo analog of the read-out of a phenotypic assay. Our results suggest a drug-class specific impact of antivirals on the total amount of viral replication. Moreover, we showed that the (drug-)target half life, dominated by immune-system related clearance processes, is a key characteristic that affects both the emergence of resistance as well as the in vitro–in vivo correlation of efficacy measures in HIV treatment. We found that protease- and maturation inhibitors, due to their target half-life, decrease the total amount of viral replication and the emergence of resistance most efficiently