Effect of smoking on physical and cognitive capability in later life: a multicohort study using observational and genetic approaches

Objectives: The observed associations between smoking and functional measures at older ages are vulnerable to bias and confounding. Mendelian randomisation (MR) uses genotype as an instrumental variable to estimate unconfounded causal associations. We conducted a meta-analysis of the observational associations and implemented an MR approach using the smoking-related single nucleotide polymorphism rs16969968 to explore their causal nature. Setting: 9 British cohorts belonging to the HALCyon collaboration. Participants: Individual participant data on N=26 692 individuals of European ancestry (N from earliest phase analysed per study) of mean ages 50-79 years were available for inclusion in observational meta-analyses of the primary outcomes. Primary outcomes: Physical capability, cognitive capability and cognitive decline. The smoking exposures were cigarettes per day, current versus ex-smoker, current versus never smoker and ever versus never smoker. Results: In observational analyses current and ever smoking were generally associated with poorer physical and cognitive capability. For example, current smokers had a general fluid cognition score which was 0.17 z-score units (95% CI -0.221 to -0.124) lower than ex-smokers in cross-sectional analyses. Current smokers had a walk speed which was 0.25 z-score units lower than never smokers (95% CI -0.338 to -0.170). An MR instrumental variable approach for current versus ex-smoker and number of cigarettes smoked per day produced CIs which neither confirmed nor refuted the observational estimates. The number of genetic associations stratified by smoking status were consistent with type I error. Conclusions: Our observational analysis supports the hypothesis that smoking is detrimental to physical and cognitive capability. Further studies are needed for a suitably powered MR approach

Evolutionary connectionism: algorithmic principles underlying the evolution of biological organisation in evo-devo, evo-eco and evolutionary transitions

The mechanisms of variation, selection and inheritance, on which evolution by natural selection depends, are not fixed over evolutionary time. Current evolutionary biology is increasingly focussed on understanding how the evolution of developmental organisations modifies the distribution of phenotypic variation, the evolution of ecological relationships modifies the selective environment, and the evolution of reproductive relationships modifies the heritability of the evolutionary unit. The major transitions in evolution, in particular, involve radical changes in developmental, ecological and reproductive organisations that instantiate variation, selection and inheritance at a higher level of biological organisation. However, current evolutionary theory is poorly equipped to describe how these organisations change over evolutionary time and especially how that results in adaptive complexes at successive scales of organisation (the key problem is that evolution is self-referential, i.e. the products of evolution change the parameters of the evolutionary process). Here we first reinterpret the central open questions in these domains from a perspective that emphasises the common underlying themes. We then synthesise the findings from a developing body of work that is building a new theoretical approach to these questions by converting well-understood theory and results from models of cognitive learning. Specifically, connectionist models of memory and learning demonstrate how simple incremental mechanisms, adjusting the relationships between individually-simple components, can produce organisations that exhibit complex system-level behaviours and improve the adaptive capabilities of the system. We use the term “evolutionary connectionism” to recognise that, by functionally equivalent processes, natural selection acting on the relationships within and between evolutionary entities can result in organisations that produce complex system-level behaviours in evolutionary systems and modify the adaptive capabilities of natural selection over time. We review the evidence supporting the functional equivalences between the domains of learning and of evolution, and discuss the potential for this to resolve conceptual problems in our understanding of the evolution of developmental, ecological and reproductive organisations and, in particular, the major evolutionary transitions

Are genetic risk factors for psychosis also associated with dimension-specific psychotic experiences in adolescence?

Psychosis has been hypothesised to be a continuously distributed quantitative phenotype and disorders such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder represent its extreme manifestations. Evidence suggests that common genetic variants play an important role in liability to both schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Here we tested the hypothesis that these common variants would also influence psychotic experiences measured dimensionally in adolescents in the general population. Our aim was to test whether schizophrenia and bipolar disorder polygenic risk scores (PRS), as well as specific single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously identified as risk variants for schizophrenia, were associated with adolescent dimension-specific psychotic experiences. Self-reported Paranoia, Hallucinations, Cognitive Disorganisation, Grandiosity, Anhedonia, and Parent-rated Negative Symptoms, as measured by the Specific Psychotic Experiences Questionnaire (SPEQ), were assessed in a community sample of 2,152 16-year-olds. Polygenic risk scores were calculated using estimates of the log of odds ratios from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium GWAS stage-1 mega-analysis of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. The polygenic risk analyses yielded no significant associations between schizophrenia and bipolar disorder PRS and the SPEQ measures. The analyses on the 28 individual SNPs previously associated with schizophrenia found that two SNPs in TCF4 returned a significant association with the SPEQ Paranoia dimension, rs17512836 (p-value=2.57x10-4) and rs9960767 (p-value=6.23x10-4). Replication in an independent sample of 16-year-olds (N=3,427) assessed using the Psychotic-Like Symptoms Questionnaire (PLIKS-Q), a composite measure of multiple positive psychotic experiences, failed to yield significant results. Future research with PRS derived from larger samples, as well as larger adolescent validation samples, would improve the predictive power to test these hypotheses further. The challenges of relating adult clinical diagnostic constructs such as schizophrenia to adolescent psychotic experiences at a genetic level are discussed

Tracking of fatness during childhood, adolescence and young adulthood: a 7-year follow-up study in Madeira Island, Portugal

Aims: Investigating tracking of fatness from childhood to adolescence, early adolescence to young adulthood and late adolescence to young adulthood. Subjects and methods: Participants from the Madeira Growth Study were followed during an average period of 7.2 years. Height, body mass, skin-folds and circumferences were measured, nine health- and performance-related tests were administered and the Baecke questionnaire was used to assess physical activity. Skeletal maturity was estimated using the TW3 method. Results: The prevalence of overweight plus obesity ranged from 8.2–20.0% at baseline and from 20.4–40.0% at followup, in boys. Corresponding percentages for girls were 10.6– 12.0% and 13.2–18.0%. Inter-age correlations for fatness indicators ranged from 0.43–0.77. BMI, waist circumference and sum of skin-folds at 8, 12 and 16-years old were the main predictors of these variables at 15, 19 and 23-years old, respectively. Strength, muscular endurance and aerobic fitness were negatively related to body fatness. Physical activity and maturation were independently associated with adolescent (15 years) and young adult (19 years) fatness. Conclusions: Over 7.2 years, tracking was moderate-to-high for fatness. Variance was explained by fatness indicators and to a small extent by physical fitness, physical activity and maturation

Whole genome sequencing to investigate the emergence of clonal complex 23 Neisseria meningitidis serogroup Y disease in the United States

In the United States, serogroup Y, ST-23 clonal complex Neisseria meningitidis was responsible for an increase in meningococcal disease incidence during the 1990s. This increase was accompanied by antigenic shift of three outer membrane proteins, with a decrease in the population that predominated in the early 1990s as a different population emerged later in that decade. To understand factors that may have been responsible for the emergence of serogroup Y disease, we used whole genome pyrosequencing to investigate genetic differences between isolates from early and late N. meningitidis populations, obtained from meningococcal disease cases in Maryland in the 1990s. The genomes of isolates from the early and late populations were highly similar, with 1231 of 1776 shared genes exhibiting 100% amino acid identity and an average πN = 0.0033 and average πS = 0.0216. However, differences were found in predicted proteins that affect pilin structure and antigen profile and in predicted proteins involved in iron acquisition and uptake. The observed changes are consistent with acquisition of new alleles through horizontal gene transfer. Changes in antigen profile due to the genetic differences found in this study likely allowed the late population to emerge due to escape from population immunity. These findings may predict which antigenic factors are important in the cyclic epidemiology of meningococcal disease

Population genomics of cardiometabolic traits: design of the University College London-London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine-Edinburgh-Bristol (UCLEB) Consortium.

Substantial advances have been made in identifying common genetic variants influencing cardiometabolic traits and disease outcomes through genome wide association studies. Nevertheless, gaps in knowledge remain and new questions have arisen regarding the population relevance, mechanisms, and applications for healthcare. Using a new high-resolution custom single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array (Metabochip) incorporating dense coverage of genomic regions linked to cardiometabolic disease, the University College-London School-Edinburgh-Bristol (UCLEB) consortium of highly-phenotyped population-based prospective studies, aims to: (1) fine map functionally relevant SNPs; (2) precisely estimate individual absolute and population attributable risks based on individual SNPs and their combination; (3) investigate mechanisms leading to altered risk factor profiles and CVD events; and (4) use Mendelian randomisation to undertake studies of the causal role in CVD of a range of cardiovascular biomarkers to inform public health policy and help develop new preventative therapies

White matter hyperintensities in vascular contributions to cognitive impairment and dementia (VCID): Knowledge gaps and opportunities

White matter hyperintensities (WMHs) are frequently seen on brain magnetic resonance imaging scans of older people. Usually interpreted clinically as a surrogate for cerebral small vessel disease, WMHs are associated with increased likelihood of cognitive impairment and dementia (including Alzheimer's disease [AD]). WMHs are also seen in cognitively healthy people. In this collaboration of academic, clinical, and pharmaceutical industry perspectives, we identify outstanding questions about WMHs and their relation to cognition, dementia, and AD. What molecular and cellular changes underlie WMHs? What are the neuropathological correlates of WMHs? To what extent are demyelination and inflammation present? Is it helpful to subdivide into periventricular and subcortical WMHs? What do WMHs signify in people diagnosed with AD? What are the risk factors for developing WMHs? What preventive and therapeutic strategies target WMHs? Answering these questions will improve prevention and treatment of WMHs and dementia

Constant light enhances synchrony among circadian clock cells and promotes behavioral rhythms in VPAC(2)-signaling deficient mice

Individual neurons in the suprachiasmatic nuclei (SCN) contain an intracellular molecular clock and use intercellular signaling to synchronize their timekeeping activities so that the SCN can coordinate brain physiology and behavior. The neuropeptide vasoactive intestinal polypeptide (VIP) and its VPAC2 receptor form a key component of intercellular signaling systems in the SCN and critically control cellular coupling. Targeted mutations in either the intracellular clock or intercellular neuropeptide signaling mechanisms, such as VIP-VPAC2 signaling, can lead to desynchronization of SCN neuronal clocks and loss of behavioral rhythms. An important goal in chronobiology is to develop interventions to correct deficiencies in circadian timekeeping. Here we show that extended exposure to constant light promotes synchrony among SCN clock cells and the expression of ~24 h rhythms in behavior in mice in which intercellular signaling is disrupted through loss of VIP-VPAC2 signaling. This study highlights the importance of SCN synchrony for the expression of rhythms in behavior and reveals how non-invasive manipulations in the external environment can be used to overcome neurochemical communication deficits in this important brain system

An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts

Empirical models, designed to predict surface variables over seasons to decades ahead, provide useful benchmarks for comparison against the performance of dynamical forecast systems; they may also be employable as predictive tools for use by climate services in their own right. A new global empirical decadal prediction system is presented, based on a multiple linear regression approach designed to produce probabilistic output for comparison against dynamical models. A global attribution is performed initially to identify the important forcing and predictor components of the model . Ensemble hindcasts of surface air temperature anomaly fields are then generated, based on the forcings and predictors identified as important, under a series of different prediction ‘modes’ and their performance is evaluated. The modes include a real-time setting, a scenario in which future volcanic forcings are prescribed during the hindcasts, and an approach which exploits knowledge of the forced trend. A two-tier prediction system, which uses knowledge of future sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, is also tested, but within a perfect knowledge framework. Each mode is designed to identify sources of predictability and uncertainty, as well as investigate different approaches to the design of decadal prediction systems for operational use. It is found that the empirical model shows skill above that of persistence hindcasts for annual means at lead times of up to 10 years ahead in all of the prediction modes investigated. It is suggested that hindcasts which exploit full knowledge of the forced trend due to increasing greenhouse gases throughout the hindcast period can provide more robust estimates of model bias for the calibration of the empirical model in an operational setting. The two-tier system shows potential for improved real-time prediction, given the assumption that skilful predictions of large-scale modes of variability are available. The empirical model framework has been designed with enough flexibility to facilitate further developments, including the prediction of other surface variables and the ability to incorporate additional predictors within the model that are shown to contribute significantly to variability at the local scale. It is also semi-operational in the sense that forecasts have been produced for the coming decade and can be updated when additional data becomes available