Increasing burden of community-acquired pneumonia leading to hospitalisation, 1998-2014

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity in many countries but few recent large-scale studies have examined trends in its incidence. METHODS: Incidence of CAP leading to hospitalisation in one UK region (Oxfordshire) was calculated over calendar time using routinely collected diagnostic codes, and modelled using piecewise-linear Poisson regression. Further models considered other related diagnoses, typical administrative outcomes, and blood and microbiology test results at admission to determine whether CAP trends could be explained by changes in case-mix, coding practices or admission procedures. RESULTS: CAP increased by 4.2%/year (95% CI 3.6 to 4.8) from 1998 to 2008, and subsequently much faster at 8.8%/year (95% CI 7.8 to 9.7) from 2009 to 2014. Pneumonia-related conditions also increased significantly over this period. Length of stay and 30-day mortality decreased slightly in later years, but the proportions with abnormal neutrophils, urea and C reactive protein (CRP) did not change (p>0.2). The proportion with severely abnormal CRP (>100 mg/L) decreased slightly in later years. Trends were similar in all age groups. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most common causative organism found; however other organisms, particularly Enterobacteriaceae, increased in incidence over the study period (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalisations for CAP have been increasing rapidly in Oxfordshire, particularly since 2008. There is little evidence that this is due only to changes in pneumonia coding, an ageing population or patients with substantially less severe disease being admitted more frequently. Healthcare planning to address potential further increases in admissions and consequent antibiotic prescribing should be a priority

Shortcuts to adiabaticity in a time-dependent box

A method is proposed to drive an ultrafast non-adiabatic dynamics of an ultracold gas trapped in a box potential. The resulting state is free from spurious excitations associated with the breakdown of adiabaticity, and preserves the quantum correlations of the initial state up to a scaling factor. The process relies on the existence of an adiabatic invariant and the inversion of the dynamical self-similar scaling law dictated by it. Its physical implementation generally requires the use of an auxiliary expulsive potential analogous to those used in soliton control. The method is extended to a broad family of many-body systems. As illustrative examples we consider the ultrafast expansion of a Tonks-Girardeau gas and of Bose-Einstein condensates in different dimensions, where the method exhibits an excellent robustness against different regimes of interactions and the features of an experimentally realizable box potential.Comment: 6 pp, 4 figures, typo in Eq. (6) fixe

Community-acquired pneumonia in the United Kingdom:a call to action

Abstract Pneumococcal disease has a high burden in adults in the United Kingdom (UK); however, the total burden is underestimated, principally because most cases of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) are non-invasive. Research into pneumonia receives poor funding relative to its disease burden (global mortality, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability), ranking just 20 out of 25 for investment in infectious diseases in the UK. The current accuracy of data for establishing incidence rates is questionable, and it is a reflection of the paucity of research that much of the background information available derives from nearly 30 years ago. Given the relationship between CAP and mortality (pneumonia accounts for 29,000 deaths per annum in the UK, and 5–15% of patients hospitalised with CAP die within 30 days of admission), and the increasing threat of antimicrobial resistance associated with inappropriate antibiotic prescribing, such neglect of a highly prevalent problem is concerning. In this Call to Action, we explore the poorly understood burden of CAP in the UK, discuss the importance of an accurate diagnosis and appropriate treatment, and suggest how national collaboration could improve the management of an often life-threatening, yet potentially preventable disease

Combining Charlson and Elixhauser scores with varying lookback predicated mortality better than using individual scores

Objective: To investigate variation in the presence of secondary diagnosis codes in Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity scores and assess whether including a 1-year lookback period improved prognostic adjustment by these scores individually, and combined, for 30-day mortality. Study Design and Setting: We analyzed inpatient admissions from January 1, 2007 to May 18, 2018 in Oxfordshire, UK. Comorbidity scores were calculated using secondary diagnostic codes in the diagnostic-dominant episode, and primary and secondary codes from the year before. Associations between scores and 30-day mortality were investigated using Cox models with natural cubic splines for nonlinearity, assessing fit using Akaike Information Criteria. Results: The 1-year lookback improved model fit for Charlson and Elixhauser scores vs. using diagnostic-dominant methods. Including both, and allowing nonlinearity, improved model fit further. The diagnosis-dominant Charlson score and Elixhauser score using a 1-year lookback, and their interaction, provided the best comorbidity adjustment (reduction in AIC: 761 from best single score model). Conclusion: The Charlson and Elixhauser score calculated using primary and secondary diagnostic codes from 1-year lookback with secondary diagnostic codes from the current episode improved individual predictive ability. Ideally, comorbidities should be adjusted for using both the Charlson (diagnostic-dominant) and Elixhauser (1-year lookback) scores, incorporating nonlinearity and interactions for optimal confounding control

Antibiotic prescribing for upper respiratory infections among children in rural China: a cross-sectional study of outpatient prescriptions

Background: Overuse of antibiotics contributes to the development of antimicrobial resistance. Objective: This study aims to assess the condition of antibiotic use at health facilities at county, township and village levels in rural Guangxi, China. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of outpatient antibiotic prescriptions in 2014 for children aged 2–14 years with upper respiratory infections (URI). Twenty health facilities were randomly selected, including four county hospitals, eight township hospitals and eight village clinics. Prescriptions were extracted from the electronic records in the county hospitals and paper copies in the township hospitals and village clinics. Results: The antibiotic prescription rate was higher in township hospitals (593/877, 68%) compared to county hospitals (2736/8166, 34%) and village clinics (96/297, 32%) (p < 0.001). Among prescriptions containing antibiotics, county hospitals were found to have the highest use rate of broad-spectrum antibiotics (82 vs 57% [township], vs 54% [village], p < 0.001), injectable antibiotics (65 vs 43% [township], vs 33% [village], p < 0.001) and multiple antibiotics (47 vs 15% [township], vs 0% [village], p < 0.001). Logistic regression showed that the likelihood of prescribing an antibiotic was significantly associated with patients being 6–14 years old compared with being 2–5 years old (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.3, 95% CI 1.2–1.5), and receiving care at township hospitals compared with county hospitals (aOR = 5.0, 95% CI 4.1–6.0). Prescriptions with insurance copayment appeared to lower the risk of prescribing antibiotics compared with those without (aOR = 0.8, 95% CI 0.7–0.9). Conclusions: Inappropriate use of antibiotics was high for outpatient childhood URI in the four counties of Guangxi, China, with the highest rate found in township hospitals. A significant high proportion of prescriptions containing antibiotics were broad-spectrum, by intravenous infusion or with multiple antibiotics, especially at county hospitals. Urgent attention is needed to address this challenge

Investigation of the impact of the NICE guidelines regarding antibiotic prophylaxis during invasive dental procedures on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England: an electronic health records study

Background Infective endocarditis is an uncommon but serious infection, where evidence for giving antibiotic prophylaxis before invasive dental procedures is inconclusive. In England, antibiotic prophylaxis was offered routinely to patients at risk of infective endocarditis until March 2008, when new guidelines aimed at reducing unnecessary antibiotic use were issued. We investigated whether changes in infective endocarditis incidence could be detected using electronic health records, assessing the impact of inclusion criteria/statistical model choice on inferences about the timing/type of any change. Methods Using national data from Hospital Episode Statistics covering 1998–2017, we modelled trends in infective endocarditis incidence using three different sets of inclusion criteria plus a range of regression models, identifying the most likely date for a change in trends if evidence for one existed. We also modelled trends in the proportions of different organism groups identified during infection episodes, using secondary diagnosis codes and data from national laboratory records. Lastly, we applied non-parametric local smoothing to visually inspect any changes in trend around the guideline change date. Results Infective endocarditis incidence increased markedly over the study (22.2–41.3 per million population in 1998 to 42.0–67.7 in 2017 depending on inclusion criteria). The most likely dates for a change in incidence trends ranged from September 2001 (uncertainty interval August 2000–May 2003) to May 2015 (March 1999–January 2016), depending on inclusion criteria and statistical model used. For the proportion of infective endocarditis cases associated with streptococci, the most likely change points ranged from October 2008 (March 2006–April 2010) to August 2015 (September 2013–November 2015), with those associated with oral streptococci decreasing in proportion after the change point. Smoothed trends showed no notable changes in trend around the guideline date. Conclusions Infective endocarditis incidence has increased rapidly in England, though we did not detect any change in trends directly following the updated guidelines for antibiotic prophylaxis, either overall or in cases associated with oral streptococci. Estimates of when changes occurred were sensitive to inclusion criteria and statistical model choice, demonstrating the need for caution in interpreting single models when using large datasets. More research is needed to explore the factors behind this increase

Antibiotic use and clinical outcomes in the acute setting under management by an Infectious Diseases Acute Physician versus other clinical teams: a cohort study

OBJECTIVES: To assess the magnitude of difference in antibiotic use between clinical teams in the acute setting and assess evidence for any adverse consequences to patient safety or healthcare delivery. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (1 week) and analysis of linked electronic health records (3 years). SETTING: UK tertiary care centre. PARTICIPANTS: All patients admitted sequentially to the acute medical service under an infectious diseases acute physician (IDP) and other medical teams during 1 week in 2013 (n=297), and 3 years 2012–2014 (n=47 585). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Antibiotic use in days of therapy (DOT): raw group metrics and regression analysis adjusted for case mix. SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: 30-day all-cause mortality, treatment failure and length of stay. RESULTS: Antibiotic use was 173 vs 282 DOT/100 admissions in the IDP versus non-IDP group. Using case mix-adjusted zero-inflated Poisson regression, IDP patients were significantly less likely to receive an antibiotic (adjusted OR=0.25 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.84), p=0.03) and received shorter courses (adjusted rate ratio (RR)=0.71 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.93), p=0.01). Clinically stable IDP patients of uncertain diagnosis were more likely to have antibiotics held (87% vs 55%; p=0.02). There was no significant difference in treatment failure or mortality (adjusted p>0.5; also in the 3-year data set), but IDP patients were more likely to be admitted overnight (adjusted OR=3.53 (95% CI 1.24 to 10.03), p=0.03) and have longer length of stay (adjusted RR=1.19 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.36), p=0.007). CONCLUSIONS: The IDP-led group used 30% less antibiotic therapy with no adverse clinical outcome, suggesting antibiotic use can be reduced safely in the acute setting. This may be achieved in part by holding antibiotics and admitting the patient for observation rather than prescribing, which has implications for costs and hospital occupancy. More information is needed to indicate whether any such longer admission will increase or decrease risk of antibiotic-resistant infections

Antimicrobial resistance in commensal opportunistic pathogens isolated from non-sterile sites can be an effective proxy for surveillance in bloodstream infections

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance in bloodstream infections (BSIs) is challenging in low/middle-income countries (LMICs) given limited laboratory capacity. Other specimens are easier to collect and process and are more likely to be culture-positive. In 8102 E. coli BSIs, 322,087 E. coli urinary tract infections, 6952 S. aureus BSIs and 112,074 S. aureus non-sterile site cultures from Oxfordshire (1998–2018), and other (55,296 isolates) rarer commensal opportunistic pathogens, antibiotic resistance trends over time in blood were strongly associated with those in other specimens (maximum cross-correlation per drug 0.51–0.99). Resistance prevalence was congruent across drug-years for each species (276/312 (88%) species-drug-years with prevalence within ± 10% between blood/other isolates). Results were similar across multiple countries in high/middle/low income-settings in the independent ATLAS dataset (103,559 isolates, 2004–2017) and three further LMIC hospitals/programmes (6154 isolates, 2008–2019). AMR in commensal opportunistic pathogens cultured from BSIs is strongly associated with AMR in commensal opportunistic pathogens cultured from non-sterile sites over calendar time, suggesting the latter could be used as an effective proxy for AMR surveillance in BSIs

Genomic epidemiology and longitudinal sampling of ward wastewater environments and patients reveals complexity of the transmission dynamics of blaKPC-carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales in a hospital setting

Background Healthcare-associated wastewater and asymptomatic patient reservoirs colonized by carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) contribute to nosocomial CPE dissemination, but the characteristics and dynamics of this remain unclear.// Methods We systematically sampled wastewater sites (n = 4488 samples; 349 sites) and patients (n = 1247) across six wards over 6–12 months to understand blaKPC-associated CPE (KPC-E) diversity within these reservoirs and transmission in a healthcare setting. Up to five KPC-E-positive isolates per sample were sequenced (Illumina). Recombination-adjusted phylogenies were used to define genetically related strains; assembly and mapping-based approaches were used to characterize antimicrobial resistance genes, insertion sequences (ISs) and Tn4401 types/target site sequences. The accessory genome was evaluated in some of the largest clusters, and those crossing reservoirs.// Results Wastewater site KPC-E-positivity was substantial [101/349 sites (28.9%); 228/5601 (4.1%) patients cultured]. Thirteen KPC-E species and 109 strains were identified using genomics, and 24% of wastewater and 26% of patient KPC-E-positive samples harboured one or more strains. Most diversity was explained by the individual niche, suggesting localized factors are important in selection and spread. Tn4401 + flanking target site sequence diversity was greater in wastewater sites (P < 0.001), which might favour Tn4401-associated transposition/evolution. Shower/bath- and sluice/mop-associated sites were more likely to be KPC-E-positive (adjusted OR = 2.69; 95% CI: 1.44–5.01; P = 0.0019; and adjusted OR = 2.60; 95% CI: 1.04–6.52; P = 0.0410, respectively). Different strains had different blaKPC dissemination dynamics.// Conclusions We identified substantial and diverse KPC-E colonization of wastewater sites and patients in this hospital setting. Reservoir and niche-specific factors (e.g. microbial interactions, selection pressures), and different strains and mobile genetic elements likely affect transmission dynamics. This should be considered in surveillance and control strategies

Chinese and white Canadian satisfaction and compliance with physicians

BACKGROUND: Patient satisfaction has become an important indicator of primary care and healthcare system performance. Ethnic disparities in patient satisfaction and compliance with physician care have been studied in several countries. However, this issue has not received significant attention in Canada. The unique characteristics of the Canadian healthcare system and ethnic population make it worthwhile to examine this issue in this population. Therefore, we conducted a survey among Chinese and Whites in a Canadian city to determine their reported satisfaction, and perceptions of physicians. METHODS: The survey was conducted in English, Mandarin and Cantonese in 2005 among Chinese and White Canadians, 18 years of age or older, who had visited at least one physician in Canada. RESULTS: We analyzed 746 Chinese and 711 Whites in the general practitioner (GP) visit group and 485 Chinese and 637 Whites in the specialist visit group. A lower proportion of Chinese compared to Whites reported that they were very satisfied or satisfied with GP (73.7% vs. 92.8%) and specialist care (75.5% vs. 85.6%) and the differences between the two groups remained after adjustment for demographic variables and chronic conditions (risk adjusted OR: 0.70, 95%CI: 0.42–1.18 for the GP visit group and OR: 0.77, 95%CI: 0.48–1.23 for the specialist visit group). A similar proportion of Chinese and Whites reported that they always followed a physician's advice (59.4% vs. 59.6% for the GP visit group and 67.2% vs. 62.8% for the specialist visit group). Non-English speaking Chinese and recent arrivals in Canada were less likely to be satisfied with GPs than Chinese born in Canada [risk adjusted OR: 0.5, 95%CI: 0.3–0.9, 0.2 and 0.1–0.7, respectively]. CONCLUSION: Chinese Canadians reported lower satisfaction with physicians and perceived physicians slightly more negatively than White Canadians. Particularly, Chinese with limited English and short length of stay in Canada were less satisfied than Canadian born Chinese