Cliophysics: Socio-political Reliability Theory, Polity Duration and African Political (In)stabilities

Quantification of historical sociological processes have recently gained attention among theoreticians in the effort of providing a solid theoretical understanding of the behaviors and regularities present in sociopolitical dynamics. Here we present a reliability theory of polity processes with emphases on individual political dynamics of African countries. We found that the structural properties of polity failure rates successfully capture the risk of political vulnerability and instabilities in which 87.50%, 75%, 71.43%, and 0% of the countries with monotonically increasing, unimodal, U-shaped and monotonically decreasing polity failure rates, respectively, have high level of state fragility indices. The quasi-U-shape relationship between average polity duration and regime types corroborates historical precedents and explains the stability of the autocracies and democracies.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Nothing Lasts Forever: Environmental Discourses on the Collapse of Past Societies

The study of the collapse of past societies raises many questions for the theory and practice of archaeology. Interest in collapse extends as well into the natural sciences and environmental and sustainability policy. Despite a range of approaches to collapse, the predominant paradigm is environmental collapse, which I argue obscures recognition of the dynamic role of social processes that lie at the heart of human communities. These environmental discourses, together with confusion over terminology and the concepts of collapse, have created widespread aporia about collapse and resulted in the creation of mixed messages about complex historical and social processes

Tetrabenazine as anti-chorea therapy in Huntington Disease: an open-label continuation study. Huntington Study Group/TETRA-HD Investigators

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tetrabenazine (TBZ) selectively depletes central monoamines by reversibly binding to the type-2 vesicular monoamine transporter. A previous double blind study in Huntington disease (HD) demonstrated that TBZ effectively suppressed chorea, with a favorable short-term safety profile (<it>Neurology </it>2006;66:366-372). The objective of this study was to assess the long-term safety and effectiveness of TBZ for chorea in HD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Subjects who completed the 13-week, double blind protocol were invited to participate in this open label extension study for up to 80 weeks. Subjects were titrated to the best individual dose or a maximum of 200 mg/day. Chorea was assessed using the Total Maximal Chorea (TMC) score from the Unified Huntington Disease Rating Scale.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 75 participants, 45 subjects completed 80 weeks. Three participants terminated due to adverse events (AEs) including depression, delusions with associated previous suicidal behavior, and vocal tics. One subject died due to breast cancer. The other 26 subjects chose not to continue on with each ensuing extension for various reasons. When mild and unrelated AEs were excluded, the most commonly reported AEs (number of subjects) were sedation/somnolence (18), depressed mood (17), anxiety (13), insomnia (10), and akathisia (9). Parkinsonism and dysphagia scores were significantly increased at week 80 compared to baseline. At week 80, chorea had significantly improved from baseline with a mean reduction in the TMC score of 4.6 (SD 5.5) units. The mean dosage at week 80 was 63.4 mg (range 12.5-175 mg).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>TBZ effectively suppresses HD-related chorea for up to 80 weeks. Patients treated chronically with TBZ should be monitored for parkinsonism, dysphagia and other side effects including sleep disturbance, depression, anxiety, and akathisia.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>Clinicaltrials.gov registration number (initial study): NCT00219804</p

Splenic size after division of the short gastric vessels in Nissen fundoplication in children

Item does not contain fulltextPURPOSE: Nissen fundoplication is an effective treatment for gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD). Mobilization of the gastric fundus during fundoplication requires division of short gastric vessels of the spleen, which may cause splenic ischemia. The aim of this study was to determine if Nissen fundoplication results in hypotrophy of the spleen. METHODS: We performed pre-operative and post-operative ultrasound measurements of the spleen in children undergoing Nissen fundoplication. During operation, the surgeon estimated the compromised blood flow by assessment of the percentage of discoloration of the spleen. RESULTS: Twenty-four consecutive children were analyzed. Discoloration of the upper pole of the spleen was observed in 11 patients (48%) of a median estimated splenic surface of 20% (range 5-50%). The median ratio for pre-operative and post-operative length, width, and area of the spleen was 0.97, 1.03, and 0.96, respectively. The percentage of the estimated perfusion defect during surgery was not correlated with the ratios. In three patients, the area ratio was smaller than 0.8 (0.67-0.75), meaning that the area decreased with at least 20% after surgery. In none of these patients a discoloration was observed. CONCLUSION: Discoloration of the spleen after Nissen fundoplication is not associated with post-operative splenic atrophy.1 maart 201

Retained Surgical Items and Minimally Invasive Surgery

A retained surgical item is a surgical patient safety problem. Early reports have focused on the epidemiology of retained-item cases and the identification of patient risk factors for retention. We now know that retention has very little to do with patient characteristics and everything to do with operating room culture. It is a perception that minimally invasive procedures are safer with regard to the risk of retention. Minimally invasive surgery is still an operation where an incision is made and surgical tools are placed inside of patients, so these cases are not immune to the problem of inadvertent retention. Retained surgical items occur because of problems with multi-stakeholder operating room practices and problems in communication. The prevention of retained surgical items will therefore require practice change, knowledge, and shared information between all perioperative personnel

Empirical Models of Transitions between Coral Reef States: Effects of Region, Protection, and Environmental Change

There has been substantial recent change in coral reef communities. To date, most analyses have focussed on static patterns or changes in single variables such as coral cover. However, little is known about how community-level changes occur at large spatial scales. Here, we develop Markov models of annual changes in coral and macroalgal cover in the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR) regions

Community change within a Caribbean coral reef Marine Protected Area following two decades of local management

© The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in PLoS ONE 8 (2013): e54069, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0054069.Structural change in both the habitat and reef-associated fish assemblages within spatially managed coral reefs can provide key insights into the benefits and limitations of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). While MPA zoning effects on particular target species are well reported, we are yet to fully resolve the various affects of spatial management on the structure of coral reef communities over decadal time scales. Here, we document mixed affects of MPA zoning on fish density, biomass and species richness over the 21 years since establishment of the Saba Marine Park (SMP). Although we found significantly greater biomass and species richness of reef-associated fishes within shallow habitats (5 meters depth) closed to fishing, this did not hold for deeper (15 m) habitats, and there was a widespread decline (38% decrease) in live hard coral cover and a 68% loss of carnivorous reef fishes across all zones of the SMP from the 1990s to 2008. Given the importance of live coral for the maintenance and replenishment of reef fishes, and the likely role of chronic disturbance in driving coral decline across the region, we explore how local spatial management can help protect coral reef ecosystems within the context of large-scale environmental pressures and disturbances outside the purview of local MPA management.Funding was provided by the Saba Conservation Foundation ((SCF), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, The Australian National University and Australian Research Council

Indigenous Knowledge and Long-term Ecological Change: Detection, Interpretation, and Responses to Changing Ecological Conditions in Pacific Island Communities

When local resource users detect, understand, and respond to environmental change they can more effectively manage environmental resources. This article assesses these abilities among artisanal fishers in Roviana Lagoon, Solomon Islands. In a comparison of two villages, it documents local resource users’ abilities to monitor long-term ecological change occurring to seagrass meadows near their communities, their understandings of the drivers of change, and their conceptualizations of seagrass ecology. Local observations of ecological change are compared with historical aerial photography and IKONOS satellite images that show 56 years of actual changes in seagrass meadows from 1947 to 2003. Results suggest that villagers detect long-term changes in the spatial cover of rapidly expanding seagrass meadows. However, for seagrass meadows that showed no long-term expansion or contraction in spatial cover over one-third of respondents incorrectly assumed changes had occurred. Examples from a community-based management initiative designed around indigenous ecological knowledge and customary sea tenure governance show how local observations of ecological change shape marine resource use and practices which, in turn, can increase the management adaptability of indigenous or hybrid governance systems