Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Symmetric Stable Distributions -- Empirical Characteristic Function Approach

We consider goodness-of-fit tests of symmetric stable distributions based on weighted integrals of the squared distance between the empirical characteristic function of the standardized data and the characteristic function of the standard symmetric stable distribution with the characteristic exponent $\alpha$ estimated from the data. We treat $\alpha$ as an unknown parameter, but for theoretical simplicity we also consider the case that $\alpha$ is fixed. For estimation of parameters and the standardization of data we use maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and an equivariant integrated squared error estimator (EISE) which minimizes the weighted integral. We derive the asymptotic covariance function of the characteristic function process with parameters estimated by MLE and EISE. For the case of MLE, the eigenvalues of the covariance function are numerically evaluated and asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is obtained using complex integration. Simulation studies show that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics is very accurate. We also present a formula of the asymptotic covariance function of the characteristic function process with parameters estimated by an efficient estimator for general distributions

Mood and cognition in healthy older European adults: the Zenith study

YesBackground: The study aim was to determine if state and trait intra-individual measures of everyday affect predict cognitive functioning in healthy older community dwelling European adults (n = 387), aged 55-87 years. Methods: Participants were recruited from centres in France, Italy and Northern Ireland. Trait level and variability in positive and negative affect (PA and NA) were assessed using self-administered PANAS scales, four times a day for four days. State mood was assessed by one PANAS scale prior to assessment of recognition memory, spatial working memory, reaction time and sustained attention using the CANTAB computerized test battery. Results: A series of hierarchical regression analyses were carried out, one for each measure of cognitive function as the dependent variable, and socio-demographic variables (age, sex and social class), state and trait mood measures as the predictors. State PA and NA were both predictive of spatial working memory prior to looking at the contribution of trait mood. Trait PA and its variability were predictive of sustained attention. In the final step of the regression analyses, trait PA variability predicted greater sustained attention, whereas state NA predicted fewer spatial working memory errors, accounting for a very small percentage of the variance (1-2%) in the respective tests. Conclusion: Moods, by and large, have a small transient effect on cognition in this older sample

Conformational Targeting of Fibrillar Polyglutamine Proteins in Live Cells Escalates Aggregation and Cytotoxicity

Misfolding- and aggregation-prone proteins underlying Parkinson's, Huntington's and Machado-Joseph diseases, namely alpha-synuclein, huntingtin, and ataxin-3 respectively, adopt numerous intracellular conformations during pathogenesis, including globular intermediates and insoluble amyloid-like fibrils. Such conformational diversity has complicated research into amyloid-associated intracellular dysfunction and neurodegeneration. To this end, recombinant single-chain Fv antibodies (scFvs) are compelling molecular tools that can be selected against specific protein conformations, and expressed inside cells as intrabodies, for investigative and therapeutic purposes.Using atomic force microscopy (AFM) and live-cell fluorescence microscopy, we report that a human scFv selected against the fibrillar form of alpha-synuclein targets isomorphic conformations of misfolded polyglutamine proteins. When expressed in the cytoplasm of striatal cells, this conformation-specific intrabody co-localizes with intracellular aggregates of misfolded ataxin-3 and a pathological fragment of huntingtin, and enhances the aggregation propensity of both disease-linked polyglutamine proteins. Using this intrabody as a tool for modulating the kinetics of amyloidogenesis, we show that escalating aggregate formation of a pathologic huntingtin fragment is not cytoprotective in striatal cells, but rather heightens oxidative stress and cell death as detected by flow cytometry. Instead, cellular protection is achieved by suppressing aggregation using a previously described intrabody that binds to the amyloidogenic N-terminus of huntingtin. Analogous cytotoxic results are observed following conformational targeting of normal or polyglutamine-expanded human ataxin-3, which partially aggregate through non-polyglutamine domains.These findings validate that the rate of aggregation modulates polyglutamine-mediated intracellular dysfunction, and caution that molecules designed to specifically hasten aggregation may be detrimental as therapies for polyglutamine disorders. Moreover, our findings introduce a novel antibody-based tool that, as a consequence of its general specificity for fibrillar conformations and its ability to function intracellularly, offers broad research potential for a variety of human amyloid diseases

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. METHODS: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. FINDINGS: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. INTERPRETATION: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the healthrelated SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

The use of the CR-10 scale to allow self-regulation of isometric exercise intensity in pre-hypertensive and hypertensive participants

Purpose: Isometric exercise (IE) has been shown to lower blood pressure (BP). Using equipment with force output displays, intensity is usually regulated at 30% maximal voluntary contraction (MVC); however, the cost of programmable equipment and their requirement for maximal contractions presents limitations. A simple, cost-effective alternative deserves investigation. The purpose of this study was (i) to explore the relationship between %MVC, change in systolic BP (ΔSBP), and perceived exertion (CR-10) and (ii) to assess the validity of self-regulation of intensity during isometric handgrip exercise. Methods: Fourteen pre-hypertensive and hypertensive adults completed eight, 2-minute isometric handgrip exercises at randomised intensities; participants estimated their perceived exertion at 30-second intervals (Estimation Task). Subsequently, on three separate occasions participants performed four 2-minute contractions at an exertion level that they perceived to be equivalent to CR-10 “Level-6” (Production Task). Results: There were significant linear relationships between the estimated exertion on the CR-10 scale, and ΔSBP (r=0.784) and %MVC (r=0.845). Level 6 was equivalent to an average ΔSBP of 38mmHg (95% CI; 44mmHg, 32mmHg) and a relative force of 33% MVC (95% CI; 36.2%, 30%). During the production task, %MVC was not significantly different between the estimation task and each production task. In at least the first two repetitions of each production task, ΔSBP was significantly lower than that observed in the estimation task. Conclusion: These findings show that CR-10 “level-6” is an appropriate method of self-regulating isometric handgrip intensity; its use offers an affordable and accessible alternative for isometric exercise prescription aimed at reducing BP