Prikaz monografije o najstarijoj pučkoj školi u BiH

Skupina autora: Najstarija pučka škola u Bosni i Hercegovini, U spomen 185. obljetnice Osnovne škole fra Ilije Starčevića Tolisa, Tolisa, 2008

Useljavanje u Hrvatsku: Pristup Big (Migration) Data

This research paper deals with the phenomenon of increased immigration of foreign citizens to Croatia, raises the question of the validity of official data on the number of foreigners in Croatia, and offers an empirical basis for the development of a Big Data model for predicting the future trend of immigration to Croatia. This paper hypothesizes that Big Data sources could be useful for determining immigration flows to Croatia, as well as for estimating and forecasting. This approach is enabling first insights into the identification of trends of migrants in the intentions to immigrate to Croatia and refugee flows. The methodological concept of here presented approach is to monitor the so-called “digital trace” of immigrants and refugees left on Google search and social networks Facebook (FB), Instagram and YouTube, and their geo-locations. The approach focuses on users that use social network platforms in foreign languages in Croatia as well as Google search with specific migration-related queries worldwide. Results: The analysis shows disproportion and therefore unreliability of immigration data coming from the Croatian Ministry of Interior (MUP), Croatian Bureau of Statistics (DZS), and Croatian Employment Service. The Big (Migration) Data approach shows a much higher number of immigrants in Croatia than official data. This approach shows that the number of Facebook and Instagram users in specific Asian and African languages is growing rapidly in Croatia, as well as in Ukrainian (and Russian) after the war outbreak in Ukraine. The tested FB and Instagram index is correlated with stepped-up immigration. The analysis of the FB groups of Asian and African immigrants in Croatia shows that those groups can be a valuable source for studying migration. One of the contributions of the second used method, Google search, and YouTube insights, is that it shows that by searching for specific migration-related queries and video material on the YouTube platform, the intention of users to migrate to the EU i.e., Croatia can be estimated. The insights obtained through this method align with official data (regarding trends), which, in turn, comes with a one-year delay. This makes this method particularly useful for timely assessments of the number of immigrants and modelling trends in immigration to Croatia.Rad obrađuje fenomen povećanog trenda useljavanja stranih državljana u Republiku Hrvatsku, postavlja pitanje valjanosti službenih podataka o broju stranih državljana u Hrvatskoj i pruža empirijsku osnovu za razvoj modela Big (Migration) Data za predviđanje budućih trendova imigracije u Hrvatsku. Postavlja se hipoteza da bi taj pristup mogao biti od koristi za određivanje migracijskih tokova prema Hrvatskoj te za procjenu i prognoziranje budućih trendova. Navedeni pristup omogućuje prve uvide u namjeru migranata da imigriraju u Hrvatsku te modeliranje trendova migracijskih i izbjegličkih tokova. Metodološki koncept ovdje razvijenog pristupa jest praćenje tzv. digitalnih tragova imigranata i izbjeglica ostavljenih na Google pretraživaču te društvenim mrežama Facebook (FB), Instagram i YouTube uključujući geolokacije. Fokusiramo se na korisnike koji se koriste društvenim mrežama na stranim jezicima u Hrvatskoj te na Google pretraživanje diljem svijeta. Rezultati: Analiza pokazuje nerazmjernost i nepouzdanost podataka o imigraciji koji dolaze iz Ministarstva unutarnjih poslova Republike Hrvatske, Državnog zavoda za statistiku i Hrvatskog zavoda za zapošljavanje. Pristup Big (Migration) Data pokazuje znatno veći broj imigranata u Hrvatskoj nego što sugeriraju službeni podaci. Taj pristup pokazuje da u Hrvatskoj rapidno raste broj korisnika Facebooka i Instagrama na određenim azijskim i afričkim jezicima te na ukrajinskom (i ruskom) nakon izbijanja rata u Ukrajini. Testirani indeks Facebooka i Instagrama korelira s pojačanom imigracijom. K tome analiza Facebook grupa azijskih i afričkih imigranata u Hrvatskoj pokazuje da te grupe mogu biti vrijedan izvor za proučavanje migracija. Jedan od doprinosa drugoga korištenog pristupa, Google pretraživanja i YouTube uvida, jest to da pokazuje da se pretragom određenih migracijskih upita i videomaterijala može procijeniti namjera korisnika da migriraju u Europsku uniju, odnosno Hrvatsku. Uvidi dobiveni tom metodom poklapaju se sa službenim podacima (vezano uz trendove), koji pak dolaze s godinom dana zakašnjenja. Time je navedena metoda od osobite koristi za pravovremene procjene broja imigranata i modeliranje trendova useljavanja u Hrvatsku

Google Trends as a Method to predict new COVID-19 Cases and socio-psychological Consequences of the Pandemic

Background: Understanding how people react to the COVID-19 crisis, and what the consequences are of the COVID-19 pandemic is key to enable public health and other agencies to develop optimal intervention strategies. Objective: Because the timely identification of new cases of infection has proven to be the key to timely respond to the spread of infection within a particular region, we have developed a method that can detect and predict the emergence of new cases of COVID-19 at an early stage. Further, this method can give useful insights into a family’s life during the pandemic and give the prediction of birth rates. Methods: The basic methodological concept of our approach is to monitor the digital trace of language searches with the Google Trends analytical tool (GT). We divided the keyword frequency for selected words giving us a search frequency index and then compared searches with official statistics to prove the significations of results. Results: 1.) Google Trends tools are suitable for predicting the emergence of new COVID-19 cases in Croatia. The data collected by this method correlate with official data. In Croatia search activities using GT for terms such as "PCR +COVID", and symptoms "cough + corona", "pneumonia + corona"; "muscle pain + corona" correlate strongly with officially reported cases of the disease. 2.) The method also shows effects on family life, increase in stress, and domestic violence. 3.) Birth rate in 2021 will be just 87% of what it would be "a normal year“ in Croatia. 4.) This tool can give useful insights into domestic violence. Limitations: Unquestionably, there are still significant open methodological issues and the questionable integrity of the data obtained using this source. The fact is also a problem that GT does not provide data on which population was sampled or how it was structured. Conclusion: Although these open-ended issues pose serious challenges for making clear estimates, statistics offer a range of tools available to deal with imperfect data as well as to develop controls that take data quality into account. All these insights show that GT has the potential to capture attitudes in the broad spectrum of family life themes. The benefit of this method is reliable estimates that can enable public health officials to prepare and better respond to the possible return of a pandemic in certain parts of the country and the need for responses to protect family well-being

Medical Brain Drain From Southeastern Europe: Using Digital Demography to Forecast Health Worker Emigration

Background: This paper shows that the tools of digital demography, such as Google Trends, can be used for determining, estimating, and predicting the migration of health care workers (HWs), in this case, from Croatia and the Western Balkans (WB) to Germany and Austria. Objective: This study aims to test the usefulness of Google Trends indexes to forecast HW migration from Croatia and the WB to Germany and Austria. The paper analyzes recent trends in HW mobility in Europe and focuses specifically on mobility patterns among medical doctors and nurses using digital demography. Without increased emigration in the last 10 years, Croatia and the WB would have 50% more HWs today, and this staff is now crucial in the fight against a pandemic. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the increase in emigration. Methods: A particular problem in analyzing the emigration of HCWs from Croatia and the WB is that there is no system for monitoring this process. Official data is up to 3 years late and exists only for persons deregistered from the state system. Furthermore, during the pandemic, the "normal" ways of data collection are simply too slow. The primary methodological concept of our approach is to monitor the digital trace of language searches with the Google Trends analytical tool. To standardize the data, we requested the data from January 2010 to December 2020 and divided the keyword frequency for each migration-related query. We compared this search frequency index with official statistics to prove the significance of the results and correlations, and test the model's predictive potential. Results: All tested migration-related search queries, which indicate HCWs' emigration planning, showed a positive linear association between Google index and data from official statistics (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: Serbia R2=0.3381, Bosnia and Herzegovina [B&H] R2=0.2722, Croatia R2=0.4515). Migration-related search activities such as "job application + nurses" from Croatia correlate strongly with official German data for emigrated HWs from Croatia, Serbia, and B&H. Decreases in Google searches were correlated with the decrease in the emigration of HWs. Thus, this method allows reliable forecasts for the future. Conclusions: This paper highlights that the World Health Organization’s list of countries with HWs shortages should be updated to include Croatia and the countries from the WB. The issue of the European Union drawing HWs from the EU periphery (Croatia) and nearby countries (B&H, Serbia) clearly shows a clash between the EU freedom of movement and the right to health care and a need to ensure a health care workforce in all European regions. Understanding why HWs emigrate from Croatia and the WB, and the consequences of this process are crucial to enabling state agencies and governments to develop optimal intervention strategies to retain medical staff. The benefit of this method is reliable estimates that can enable a better response to a possible shortage of HWs and protect the functioning of the health system. The freedom of movement of workers in the EU must be supplemented with a common pension and health care system in the EU

Korupcija kao poticaj za iseljavanje iz Hrvatske: korelacija između korupcije, “zarobljavanja države” i iseljavanja

This paper represents an initial step in testing the correlation between corruption and state capture on the one side and emigration as a consequence on the other. The study is based on our qualitative and quantitative research conducted in Germany on a sample of 1734 recently emigrated Croatians from 2016 to 2020 and on our new research on corruption and clientelism as a push factor for emigration from Croatia. The primary hypothesis is that migration and corruption trends are correlated and that with the growth of the emigration of young workers from Croatia, the corruption rate in the country increases even more. The second part of the research was conducted on a sample of small, medium and large companies throughout Croatia. Requests to participate were sent to 2500 companies in all Croatian counties, and 178 companies responded. The questions intended to assess so-called “state capture” in Croatia according to a concept developed by Hellman et al. (2000). We measured the capture of the judiciary, the executive and the legislature in the Republic of Croatia and the perception of bribery, corruption and clientelism in companies. Results: nepotism 71%, bribery 66%, rigging public tenders 93% significantly disrupt business. Companies rate the Government, Parliament and the judiciary as the worst public services. As many as 59% of companies believe that the Croatian judiciary is corrupt. Among the measures that companies unconditionally support are the revision of transformation and privatisation (82%) and the examination of the origin of assets (76%). The study results undoubtedly show that Croatia is even more corrupt today (2022) than it was as a non-EU member. The opening of borders has certainly facilitated emigration from Croatia, but this paper shows that emigration would not be so intense if the state and the society were not “captured”.Ovaj rad predstavlja početni korak u ispitivanju korelacije između korupcije i zarobljavanja države s jedne strane i iseljavanja s druge kao posljedice. Studi- ja se temelji na našem kvalitativnom i kvantitativnom istraživanju provedenom u Njemačkoj na uzorku od 1734 nedavno iseljenih Hrvata od 2016. do 2020. te na našem novom istraživanju o korupciji i klijentelizmu kao poticajnom faktoru iseljavanja iz Hrvatske. Primarna hipoteza je da su migracijski i korupcijski trendovi povezani te da s rastom iseljavanja mladih radnika iz Hrvatske, stopa korupcije u zemlji još više raste. Drugi dio istraživanja proveden je na uzorku malih, srednjih i velikih poduzeća diljem Hrvatske. Zahtjevi za sudjelovanje upućeni su na 2500 tvrtki u svim hrvatskim županijama, a odazvalo se 178 tvrtki. Pitanja su bila namijenjena procjeni takozvanog “zarobljavanja države” u Hrvatskoj prema konceptu koji su razvili Hellman et al. (2000). Mjerili smo zarobljenost pravosuđa, izvršne i zakonodavne vlasti u Republici Hrvatskoj te percepciju mita, korupcije i klijentelizma u tvrtkama. Rezultati: Nepotizam 71 %, mito 66 %, namještanje javnih natječaja 93 % značajno remeti poslovanje. Kao najgore javne službe tvrtke ocjenjuju Vladu, Sabor i pravosuđe. Čak 59 % tvrtki smatra da je hrvatsko pravosuđe korumpirano. Među mjerama koje tvrtke bezuvjetno podržavaju su revizija pretvorbe i privatizacije (82 %) te is- pitivanje podrijetla imovine (76 %). Rezultati studije nedvojbeno pokazuju da je Hrvatska danas (2022.) još korumpiranija nego što je bila kao nečlanica EU. Otvaranje granica svakako je pospješilo iseljavanje iz Hrvatske, ali ovaj rad pokazuje da iseljavanje ne bi bilo tako intenzivno da država i društvo nisu bili “zarobljeni”

Staatlichkeitsmodelle für die politische Neuordnung von Bosnien und Herzegowina

The different ideas about the future form of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina are often in irreconcilable opposition to reality and the social possibilities of the country. The first prerequisite for the creation of self-sustaining democratic state is the acceptance of the reality of living in a divided society and enabling the free territorial and political organization of the three main ethnic communities. With the model of political reorganization of the country represented in this text all three ethnic communities within the same state would finally win objective characteristics by which they can identify themselves as modern nations, which would allow the simultaneous development of dual loyalty of the citizens of BiH: the loyalty to their nation and to the common state. All models and policies that divide the country and want to incorporation some of his territorial entity into neighboring countries, as well as those who see the country as the state only a one nation, are unacceptable, because they work in the long run against the same country. A stable BiH is only possible as a state of three constituent nations and all its citizens. Any solution that does not accept this fact will lead to centuries of tensions, wars and revisionism

Prostorni aspekt demografske revitalizacije: rad na daljinu kao demografska mjera

Mjere pronatalitetne politike u većini država članica EU-a nisu dovele do demografskog poboljšanja i očekivanog učinka. Budući da su sve mogućnosti za demografsku revitalizaciju Europe ili nerealne ili politički neprihvatljive svim članicama, mjera koja se predlaže (rad na daljinu) realna opcija koja bi u kratkom roku mogla dovesti do „oživljavanja“ mnogih hrvatskih depopuliranih regija ali i poboljšanja demografske slike u EU-u. Rad na daljinu usporio bi odljev mozgova s periferije Hrvatske ali i EU-a. Ova bi mjera mogla ponovno naseliti velika napuštena područja Hrvatske. Ovim bi se pristupom nesumnjivo postigla bolja raspodjela stanovništva na razini cijele Hrvatske i EU-a. Mjera bi mogla dati novi poticaj napuštenim ili demografski ranjivim područjima i omogućiti radnicima da napuste gradove s visokim životnim troškovima. Time bi se divljanje cijena nekretnina u Zagrebu i Splitu dovelo u red. Nadalje, rad na daljinu bi smanjio potrebu mladih za životom u velikim gradskih središtima kako bi povećali šanse napretka u karijeri; smanjio bi emisiju CO2 zbog manje potrebe kretanja te rasteretio gužve na zagrebačkim prometnicama. Ako bi EU prihvatila ovu mjeru, to bi omogućilo povratak dijela iseljenika sa Zapada dok bi u slučaju nastavka potencijalnih novih pandemija i terorističkih napada, život u provinciji mogao postati čak i nužda. U suprotnom, nastave li se parcijalni odgovori na ovaj problem (jednosmjerne migracije), nije isključena ozbiljna ugroza temelja liberalne demokracije u Europi

Pros and Cons of Immigration to Croatia: A Critical Analysis of Prevailing Attitudes

Rad analizira imigracijsku raspravu u Europi i najčešće argumente za i protiv imigracije. Zagovornici ističu nužnost i korisnost imigracije te tvrde da su migracije stalni fenomen ljudske prirode. Protivnici pak naglašavaju da 1) dolazi do gušenja cijene rada, 2) imigracija iz trećih zemalja donosi veće fiskalne troškove nego koristi, 3) dolazi do promjena nacionalne i vjerske strukture, 4) smanjuje se povjerenje u zajednici i slabi nacionalna država. Iako i zagovaratelji i protivnici imigracije iznose argumente koji zaslužuju pozornost, rasprava između njih u pravilu završava etiketiranjem te ne dovodi ni do plodne rasprave ni do kompromisa, koji je nužan u ovako osjetljivim temama — a posebice u svjetlu činjenice da je danas na svijetu, prema Gallupovu istraživanju, oko 400 milijuna ljudi spremno useliti u Europu. Najčešći ishod imigracije je formiranje etničkih zajednica i pluralizacija, i to kako u društvenom tako i političkom, kulturnom i etničkom smislu. Hrvatska se tek nalazi na početku toga izazova te je stoga ovaj rad jedna vrsta uvodne rasprave u ovu vrlo složenu temu i poticaj za daljnju raspravu, koja će u narednim desetljećima postati ključna tema oko koje će se polarizirati hrvatsko društvo.This paper analyses the immigration debate in Europe and highlights the most common arguments for and against immigration. Proponents emphasize the necessity and benefits thereof by arguing that migration is a constant aspect of human nature. On the other hand, opponents stress that 1. there occurs a suppression of wages, 2. immigration from third countries brings higher fiscal costs than benefits, 3. changes occur in national and religious demographics, and 4. there is a decrease in community trust and a weakening of the national state. Most arguments coming from either side demonstrate selectivity and cannot hold up to scientific criticism. While both proponents and opponents present viable arguments, their discussion usually ends by their attaching labels to each other and fails to reach the necessary compromise on these sensitive topics —especially in view of the fact that, according to the Gallup Poll, approximately 400 million people worldwide are willing to migrate to Europe. The most common consequence of immigration is the formation of ethnic communities and pluralisation of society, which affect the social, political, cultural, and ethnic dimensions of life. Croatia is just beginning to face this challenge. Hence, this paper serves as an introductory debate on this very complex subject and aims to stimulate further discussion. This is surely to become a key topic around which the polarisation of Croatian society can be expected to occur in the coming decades