Identification of major hemorrhage in trauma patients in the prehospital setting: diagnostic accuracy and impact on outcome.

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhage is the most common cause of potentially preventable death after injury. Early identification of patients with major hemorrhage (MH) is important as treatments are time-critical. However, diagnosis can be difficult, even for expert clinicians. This study aimed to determine how accurate clinicians are at identifying patients with MH in the prehospital setting. A second aim was to analyze factors associated with missed and overdiagnosis of MH, and the impact on mortality. METHODS: Retrospective evaluation of consecutive adult (≥16 years) patients injured in 2019-2020, assessed by expert trauma clinicians in a mature prehospital trauma system, and admitted to a major trauma center (MTC). Clinicians decided to activate the major hemorrhage protocol (MHPA) or not. This decision was compared with whether patients had MH in hospital, defined as the critical admission threshold (CAT+): administration of ≥3 U of red blood cells during any 60-minute period within 24 hours of injury. Multivariate logistical regression analyses were used to analyze factors associated with diagnostic accuracy and mortality. RESULTS: Of the 947 patients included in this study, 138 (14.6%) had MH. MH was correctly diagnosed in 97 of 138 patients (sensitivity 70%) and correctly excluded in 764 of 809 patients (specificity 94%). Factors associated with missed diagnosis were penetrating mechanism (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 4.7) and major abdominal injury (OR 4.0; 95% CI 1.7 to 8.7). Factors associated with overdiagnosis were hypotension (OR 0.99; 95% CI 0.98 to 0.99), polytrauma (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.6), and diagnostic uncertainty (OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.8 to 7.3). When MH was missed in the prehospital setting, the risk of mortality increased threefold, despite being admitted to an MTC. CONCLUSION: Clinical assessment has only a moderate ability to identify MH in the prehospital setting. A missed diagnosis of MH increased the odds of mortality threefold. Understanding the limitations of clinical assessment and developing solutions to aid identification of MH are warranted. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III-Retrospective study with up to two negative criteria. STUDY TYPE: Original research; diagnostic accuracy study

Early Identification of Trauma-induced Coagulopathy: Development and Validation of a Multivariable Risk Prediction Model.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction tool for trauma-induced coagulopathy (TIC), to support early therapeutic decision-making. BACKGROUND: TIC exacerbates hemorrhage and is associated with higher morbidity and mortality. Early and aggressive treatment of TIC improves outcome. However, injured patients that develop TIC can be difficult to identify, which may compromise effective treatment. METHODS: A Bayesian Network (BN) prediction model was developed using domain knowledge of the causal mechanisms of TIC, and trained using data from 600 patients recruited into the Activation of Coagulation and Inflammation in Trauma (ACIT) study. Performance (discrimination, calibration, and accuracy) was tested using 10-fold cross-validation and externally validated on data from new patients recruited at 3 trauma centers. RESULTS: Rates of TIC in the derivation and validation cohorts were 11.8% and 11.0%, respectively. Patients who developed TIC were significantly more likely to die (54.0% vs 5.5%, P < 0.0001), require a massive blood transfusion (43.5% vs 1.1%, P < 0.0001), or require damage control surgery (55.8% vs 3.4%, P < 0.0001), than those with normal coagulation. In the development dataset, the 14-predictor BN accurately predicted this high-risk patient group: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.93, calibration slope (CS) 0.96, brier score (BS) 0.06, and brier skill score (BSS) 0.40. The model maintained excellent performance in the validation population: AUROC 0.95, CS 1.22, BS 0.05, and BSS 0.46. CONCLUSIONS: A BN (http://www.traumamodels.com) can accurately predict the risk of TIC in an individual patient from standard admission clinical variables. This information may support early, accurate, and efficient activation of hemostatic resuscitation protocols

Outcomes following trauma laparotomy for hypotensive trauma patients: A UK military and civilian perspective.

BACKGROUND: The management of trauma patients has changed radically in the last decade, and studies have shown overall improvements in survival. However, reduction in mortality for the many may obscure a lack of progress in some high-risk patients. We sought to examine the outcomes for hypotensive patients requiring laparotomy in UK military and civilian cohorts. METHODS: We undertook a review of two prospectively maintained trauma databases: the UK Joint Theatre Trauma Registry for the military cohort (February 4, 2003, to September 21, 2014) and the trauma registry of the Royal London Hospital major trauma center (January 1, 2012, to January 1, 2017) for civilian patients. Adults undergoing trauma laparotomy within 90 minutes of arrival at the emergency department (ED) were included. RESULTS: Hypotension was present on arrival at the ED in 155 (20.4%) of 761 military patients. Mortality was higher in hypotensive casualties (25.8% vs. 9.7% in normotensive casualties; p < 0.001). Hypotension was present on arrival at the ED in 63 (35.7%) of 176 civilian patients. Mortality was higher in hypotensive patients (47.6% vs. 12.4% in normotensive patients; p < 0.001). In both cohorts of hypotensive patients, neither the average injury severity, the prehospital time, the ED arrival systolic blood pressure, nor mortality rate changed significantly during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Despite improvements in survival after trauma for patients overall, the mortality for patients undergoing laparotomy who arrive at the ED with hypotension has not changed and appears stubbornly resistant to all efforts. Specific enquiry and research should continue to be directed at this high-risk group of patients. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic/Epidemiologic, level IV

Electives in undergraduate medical education: AMEE Guide No. 88

This Guide outlines the scope and potential roles an elective can contribute to undergraduate medical training and identifies ways to maximize learning opportunities, including within global health. The types of educational activity available for electives range from meeting individual educational need through to exploration of potential career pathways, with many factors influencing choice. Key areas of organization underpinning a successful elective before, during and after the placement include developing clarity of the intended educational outcomes as well as addressing practicalities such as travel and accommodation. Risk management including the implications for the participating schools as well as the student and their elective supervisors is crucial. This Guide would not be complete without some discussion around ethics and professional conduct during an elective, with consideration of the impact of elective placements, particularly in low-middle income countries

Counterfactual reasoning using causal Bayesian networks as a healthcare governance tool

keywords: Bayesian Networks, Counterfactual Reasoning, Clinical Decision Support, Healthcare Governance, Quality AssuranceBackground Healthcare governance (HG) is a quality assurance processes that aims to maintain and improve clinical practice. Clinical decisions are routinely reviewed after the outcome is known to learn lessons for the future. When the outcome is positive, then practice is praised, but when practice is suboptimal, the area for improvement is highlighted. This process requires counterfactual reasoning, where we predict what would have happened given both what happened and the possible different decisions. Causal models that capture the mechanisms that generate events can support counterfactual reasoning. Objective This study is an initial attempt to show how counterfactual reasoning with causal Bayesian networks (CBNs) can be used as a HG tool to assess what would have happened if treatments other than those occurred had been selected. Methods Motivated by the Defence Medical Services (DMS) mortality and morbidity (M&M) review meeting, in this paper we (1) extended the use of counterfactual reasoning in CBNs to review decisions, where the alternative treatment strategies and its effect belong to different stages of care, (2) placed counterfactual reasoning in a specific clinical context to examine how it can be used as a HG tool. Results Using three realistic examples, we demonstrated how the proposed counterfactual reasoning can be used to assist the DMS M&M review meetings. Conclusions Useful lessons can be learned by assessing decisions after they are made. M&M review meetings are fruitful ground for counterfactual reasoning. The use of a clinical decision support tool that can assist clinicians in assessing counterfactual probabilities will be beneficial