Statistical Inference and the Plethora of Probability Paradigms: A Principled Pluralism

The major competing statistical paradigms share a common remarkable but unremarked thread: in many of their inferential applications, different probability interpretations are combined. How this plays out in different theories of inference depends on the type of question asked. We distinguish four question types: confirmation, evidence, decision, and prediction. We show that Bayesian confirmation theory mixes what are intuitively “subjective” and “objective” interpretations of probability, whereas the likelihood-based account of evidence melds three conceptions of what constitutes an “objective” probability

MS

thesisThe relationship between knowledge and adherence post-myocardial infarction was studies. Knowledge of cardiac disease and guidelines for rehabilitation was measured pre-discharge and at two and four week post-discharge. Each subject rated adherence to diet, smoking, and exercise guidelines at two and four week post-discharge. Knowledge and adherence scores were than correlated to assess the degree of relationship between the two variables. No significant relationship was found between the two variables. This may have been due to the small sample size or to changing guidelines for discharge. Knowledge and adherence scores were also analyzed with respect to demographic variables. Age was significantly correlated with knowledge (p < .05). That is, as age increased, knowledge scored decreased. Decreasing scores in the aged may reflect sensory limitation diminishing test taking ability or lack of familiarity with multiple choice test; also, the aged may have slower learning processes which would result in lower scores. ANOVA revealed a significant relationship between family size and test scores (p < .05). After discharge, the individuals with high numbers of children had significantly higher scores than the individuals with three or fewer children. Members of large families may have participated in answering the questions, or the men may have been under more pressure to learn and rehabilitate so as to return to work. Only the variable hobbies were found to have a significant effect on adherence (P < .05). Analysis showed individuals with physically active hobbies were less adherent to exercised restrictions. Finally, test scores were analyzed for change over time. There appeared to be an increase in scores from pre-discharge to post-discharge, but test scores were consistent after discharge

Gut microbiota-derived propionate reduces cancer cell proliferation in the liver

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Improving Nutrition Publications

The authors suggest that what they learned in evaluating nutrition publications can be applied to the development of other publications

Prebiotic effects: metabolic and health benefits

The different compartments of the gastrointestinal tract are inhabited by populations of micro-organisms. By far the most important predominant populations are in the colon where a true symbiosis with the host exists that is a key for well-being and health. For such a microbiota, 'normobiosis' characterises a composition of the gut 'ecosystem' in which micro-organisms with potential health benefits predominate in number over potentially harmful ones, in contrast to 'dysbiosis', in which one or a few potentially harmful micro-organisms are dominant, thus creating a disease-prone situation. The present document has been written by a group of both academic and industry experts (in the ILSI Europe Prebiotic Expert Group and Prebiotic Task Force, respectively). It does not aim to propose a new definition of a prebiotic nor to identify which food products are classified as prebiotic but rather to validate and expand the original idea of the prebiotic concept (that can be translated in 'prebiotic effects'), defined as: 'The selective stimulation of growth and/or activity(ies) of one or a limited number of microbial genus(era)/species in the gut microbiota that confer(s) health benefits to the host.' Thanks to the methodological and fundamental research of microbiologists, immense progress has very recently been made in our understanding of the gut microbiota. A large number of human intervention studies have been performed that have demonstrated that dietary consumption of certain food products can result in statistically significant changes in the composition of the gut microbiota in line with the prebiotic concept. Thus the prebiotic effect is now a well-established scientific fact. The more data are accumulating, the more it will be recognised that such changes in the microbiota's composition, especially increase in bifidobacteria, can be regarded as a marker of intestinal health. The review is divided in chapters that cover the major areas of nutrition research where a prebiotic effect has tentatively been investigated for potential health benefits. The prebiotic effect has been shown to associate with modulation of biomarkers and activity(ies) of the immune system. Confirming the studies in adults, it has been demonstrated that, in infant nutrition, the prebiotic effect includes a significant change of gut microbiota composition, especially an increase of faecal concentrations of bifidobacteria. This concomitantly improves stool quality (pH, SCFA, frequency and consistency), reduces the risk of gastroenteritis and infections, improves general well-being and reduces the incidence of allergic symptoms such as atopic eczema. Changes in the gut microbiota composition are classically considered as one of the many factors involved in the pathogenesis of either inflammatory bowel disease or irritable bowel syndrome. The use of particular food products with a prebiotic effect has thus been tested in clinical trials with the objective to improve the clinical activity and well-being of patients with such disorders. Promising beneficial effects have been demonstrated in some preliminary studies, including changes in gut microbiota composition (especially increase in bifidobacteria concentration). Often associated with toxic load and/or miscellaneous risk factors, colon cancer is another pathology for which a possible role of gut microbiota composition has been hypothesised. Numerous experimental studies have reported reduction in incidence of tumours and cancers after feeding specific food products with a prebiotic effect. Some of these studies (including one human trial) have also reported that, in such conditions, gut microbiota composition was modified (especially due to increased concentration of bifidobacteria). Dietary intake of particular food products with a prebiotic effect has been shown, especially in adolescents, but also tentatively in postmenopausal women, to increase Ca absorption as well as bone Ca accretion and bone mineral density. Recent data, both from experimental models and from human studies, support the beneficial effects of particular food products with prebiotic properties on energy homaeostasis, satiety regulation and body weight gain. Together, with data in obese animals and patients, these studies support the hypothesis that gut microbiota composition (especially the number of bifidobacteria) may contribute to modulate metabolic processes associated with syndrome X, especially obesity and diabetes type 2. It is plausible, even though not exclusive, that these effects are linked to the microbiota-induced changes and it is feasible to conclude that their mechanisms fit into the prebiotic effect. However, the role of such changes in these health benefits remains to be definitively proven. As a result of the research activity that followed the publication of the prebiotic concept 15 years ago, it has become clear that products that cause a selective modification in the gut microbiota's composition and/or activity(ies) and thus strengthens normobiosis could either induce beneficial physiological effects in the colon and also in extra-intestinal compartments or contribute towards reducing the risk of dysbiosis and associated intestinal and systemic pathologies

A5_7 Popeye vs. The Sun

Popeye is a fictional character able to perform amazing feats after eating a can of spinach. One such feat involves him blowing out the Sun. The paper models this situation by using a density profile, and temperature ranges for different layers of the Sun to work out the energy needed to cool the Sun to 0 K. This was found to be 2.4×10^38 J. When compared to the rest energy of the spinach, it has been found that Popeye’s efficiency at converting the spinach to energy was 7.0×10^23 %. Thus, Popeye must be able to perpetually create energy in order to perform this feat

A5_6 Protective Panning

In the video game ‘PlayerUnknowns’s Battlegrounds’ a cast iron pan is able to ricochet incoming bullets to protect the wearer from harm. We identified the critical incident angle as 45.39° using a Beretta 92S pistol using 9 mm Parabellum ammunition with any incident angle less than this causing complete ricochet

A5_3 Spinning around!

Regan MacNeil survived turning her head a full rotation in 9 seconds in the film ‘The Exorcist’.We investigated the forces Regan applies to her neck during the rotation by modelling her motion as Newtons second law of rotation and discovered that by the rotational forces alone, her neck would remain intact

A5_2 Drop The Bass!

In 2004 two newspaper articles claimed that the cause of the spontaneous pneumothorax that aman suffered in his car was due to the 1000 W ‘bass box’, producing frequencies which causedresonance with the air in his lungs causing them to puncture and collapse. Modelling the alveoliin the lungs as a Helmholtz resonator this paper looks to determine if the cause was really due to the frequencies generated by the subwoofer. It was found that the subwoofer could not produce high enough frequencies to achieve resonance with the alveoli