The political, regulatory and market failures that caused the US financial crisis

This paper discusses the key regulatory, market and political failures that led to the 2008-2009 United States financial crisis. While Congress was fixing the Savings and Loan crisis, it failed to give the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac normal bank supervisory power. This was a political failure as Congress was appealing to narrow constituencies. In the mid-1990s, to encourage home ownership, the Administration changedenforcement of the Community Reinvestment Act, effectively requiring banks to lower bank mortgage standards to underserved areas. Crucially, the risky mortgage standards then spread to other sectors of the market. Market failure problems ensued as banks, mortgage brokers, securitizers, credit rating agencies, and asset managers were all plagued by problems such as moral hazard or conflicts of interest. The author explains that financial deregulation of the past three decades is unrelated to the financial crisis, and makes several recommendations for regulatory reform.Debt Markets,Access to Finance,Emerging Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress

Export restraints on russian natural gas and raw timber : what are the economic impacts ?

Export restraints by the Russian Federation on natural gas and timber have been the source of major controversy between the European Union and the Russian Federation. The analysis of this paper suggests that the export restraints in natural gas very substantially benefit Russia. On the other hand, in raw timber the analysis suggests that a substantial reduction of Russian export taxes would increase Russian welfare. The paper explains that Gazprom has failed to invest adequately, resulting in little development of new gas supplies. The result has been progressively increasing use by Gazprom of Central Asian gas supplies, at progressively higher prices for Russia. The increased prices of gas for Russian consumers have shown that it is crucial for Russia to allow new entrants and to introduce competition in the Russian domestic market. Without export restraints, however, competition among multiple gas suppliers from Russia would erode or eliminate the monopoly profits of the Russian Federation on gas exports. Thus, with a more competitive domestic market, the Russian government would be expected to grant exclusive exporting rights to a single entity (as it presently does with Gazprom) or impose export taxes. Thus, Europe should not expect to achieve cheaper Russian gas as a result of structural reforms within the Russian gas market. A more promising avenue for European energy diversification is new pipeline construction to open up new sources of supply independent of Russia (especially the Nabucco pipeline), and liquefied natural gas purchases.Markets and Market Access,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Energy Production and Transportation,Economic Theory&Research,Oil Refining&Gas Industry

Russian trade and foreign direct investment policy at the crossroads

This paper summarizes the estimates of what Russia will get from World Trade Organization accession and why. A key finding is the estimate that Russia will gain about $53 billion per year in the medium term from World Trade Organization accession and$177 billion per year in the long term, due largely to its own commitments to reform its own business services sectors. The paper summarizes the principal reform commitments that Russia has undertaken as part of its World Trade Organization accession negotiations, and compares them with those of other countries that have acceded to the World Trade Organization. It finds that the Russian commitments represent a liberal offer to the members of the World Trade Organization for admission, but they are typical of other transition countries that have acceded to the World Trade Organization. The authors discuss the outstanding issues in the Russian World Trade Organizaiton accession negotiations, and explain why Russian accession will result in the elimination of the Jackson-Vanik Amendment against Russia. They discuss Russian policies to attract foreign direct investment, including an assessment of the impact of the 2008 law on strategic sectors and the increased role of the state in the economy. Finally, the authors assess the importance of Russian accession to Russia and to the international trading community, and suggestions for most efficiently meeting the government’s diversification objective.Economic Theory&Research,World Trade Organization,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets,Free Trade

The impact of Kazakhstan accession to the World Trade Organization : a quantitative assessment

In this paper the authors use a computable general equilibrium model of the Kazakhstan economy to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which encompasses (1) improved market access; (2) Kazakhstan tariff reduction; (3) reduction of barriers against entry by multinational service providers; and (4) reform of local content and value-added tax policies confronting multinational firms in the oil sector. They assume that foreign direct investment in business services is necessary for multinationals to compete well with Kazakstan business services providers, but cross-border service provision is also present. The model incorporates productivity effects in both goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit-Stiglitz framework. The authors estimated the ad valorem equivalent of barriers to foreign direct investment based on detailed questionnaires completed by specialized research institutes in Kazakhstan. They estimate that Kazakhstan will gain about 6.7 percent of the value of Kazakhstan consumption in the medium run from WTO accession and up to 17.5 percent in the long run. They estimate that the largest gains to Kazakhstan will derive from liberalization of barriers against multinational service providers, but the other three elements of WTO accession that the authors model all contribute positively to the estimated gains. Piecemeal sensitivity analysis shows that qualitatively the results are robust, but there are four parameters in the model that significantly affect the estimated magnitude of the gains from WTO accession.Economic Theory&Research,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Free Trade,ICT Policy and Strategies,Investment and Investment Climate

Trade liberalization and the transition to a market economy

The focus of this paper is on the transition from a trade regime in a socialist economy to one based on a (more) liberal market economy. Thus, there is no need to detail the past and current nature of trade institutions, patterns and performance. However, the sorts of problems that a transition policy must address emanate from the initial conditions. This paper outlines the framework of trade policy, noting the role trade plays in development, the main elements of the policy package, and their relation to the overall economic policy picture. It summarizes the main conclusions from trade liberalization experiences worldwide, includes some discussion of their applicability to formerly-socialist economies, and discusses external constraints and opportunities presented by GATT and the Uruguay Round and relations with the EEC. The role of the government in a liberalized economy is also discussed. Finally, the paper concludes by presenting and analyzing the principal differences between Eastern European countries and others regarding trade liberalization, and discusses how the generally advised path toward trade liberalization would be altered in Eastern Europe.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Trade Policy,Transport and Trade Logistics

Trade, foreign exchange, and energy policies in the Islamic Republic of Iran : reform agenda, economic implications, and impact on the poor

The Islamic Republic of Iran has committed itself to substantial trade and market reform in its Third Five-Year Development Plan. It started out with nontariff barriers on all products, a dual exchange rate regime with the market rate more than four times the official rate, and domestic energy subsidies equal to about 90 percent of the cost of energy products. Many of these policies were justified as helping the poor. To analyze the effect of the reforms, separately and together, the authors develop a multisector computable general equilibrium model with 10 rural and 10 urban households. They find that the combined reforms could generate welfare gains equal to about 50 percent of aggregate consumer income. These gains reflect the large initial distortions-for example, energy subsidies equal to about 18 percent of GDP, and retail energy prices equal to about 10 percent of world market prices. Separately, trade reform would lead to gains of about 5 percent of income, exchange rate reform to gains of 7 percent of income, and energy pricing reform to gains of 33 percent of income. The authors'results show that well-intentioned commodity subsidy policies for the poor can have perverse effects. Direct income payments to all households (not just the poor) would vastly increase the incomes of the poor compared with the status quo. Moreover, if the combined reforms were implemented, the poorest rural household would receive gains equal to about 290 percent of its income, and the poorest urban household gains equal to about 140 percent of its income.Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Economics&Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Health Economics&Finance,Economic Stabilization

The terms-of-trade effects from the elimination of state trading in Soviet - Hungarian trade

Economists have debated whether the Soviet Union subsidized trade with its Eastern European partners in the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA). Effective January 1, 1991, former CMEA members implemented their"switchover"decision to convert to world market prices denominated in convertible currency. The switchover dramatically reduced the role of"state trading"by permitting direct enterprise to enterprise transactions denominated and settled in convertible currency. The authors made an intensive study of the trading relationship between Hungary and the Soviet Union as a case study on the terms-of-trade issue. A detailed empirical investigation of prices in Soviet-Hungarian trade before and after the switchover provides some indication of the terms-of-trade loss that Hungary is likely to suffer as a result of the switchover of its trading relationship with the Soviet Union. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the authors find that the majority of Hungarian firms exporting to the Soviet Union have been disfavored by the combination of the payments mechanism, exchange rate, tax and subsidy policies. The experience of early 1991 suggests a significant decline is likely to occur in Soviet imports from Hungary during the remainder of the year. A variety of problems account for the decline, many of them specific to internal conditions in the Soviet Union.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT

Adjusting to trade policy reform

Virtually all of the studies that quantify the adjustment costs of trade liberalization relative to the benefits point to the conclusion that adjustment costs are small in relation to the benefits of trade liberalization. The explanation for low adjustment costs is that: These costs are typically short-term and end when workers find a job, but the benefits grow as the economy does. Unemployment doesn't last long, especially where workers'pay was not substantial in the original job. Normal labor turnover often exceeds job displacement from trade liberalization. Moreover, studies that examine the impact of trade liberalization on employment in developing countries find there is little decline--and usually an increase--in manufacturing employment in developing countries a year after trade liberalization, for three reasons: 1) Developing countries tend to have comparative advantage in labor-intensive industries, and trade liberalization tends to favor labor. 2) Inter-industry shifts occur after trade liberalization, which minimizes the dislocation of factors of production. 3) In many industries, normal labor turnover exceeds dislocation from trade liberalization, so downsizing, when necessary can be accomplished without much forced unemployment. The authors recommend a uniform tariff to minimize special-interest lobbying for protection since it diffuses the benefits of protection.Decentralization,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Labor Policies,Public Health Promotion,Environmental Economics&Policies,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Trade Policy,Economic Theory&Research

Welfare costs of U.S. quotas on textiles, steel, and autos

This paper deals with the problems of partial equlibrium analysis by presenting estimates from a static ten sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy calibrated to the year 1984. Following the introduction, the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 outlines the model. Section 3 details the sources of estimates of premia on preexisting QRs (quota rents) in 1984 and the sources for the parameters describing demand and supply elasticities. Welfare and employment estimates of QR removal are presented by industry and in the aggregate in Section 4. Conclusions follow in Section 5.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Trade Policy,Access to Markets