Uncertainty propagation from the cell transmission traffic flow model to emission predictions: a data-driven approach

Road traffic exhaust emission predictions are used to inform transport policy and investment decisions aimed at reducing emissions and achieving sustainable mobility. Emission predictions are also used as inputs when modeling air quality and human exposure to traffic-related air pollutants. To be effective, such policies and/or integration must be based on robust models that not only provide point-based predictions but also inform these with an interval of confidence that properly accounts for the propagation of uncertainties through the complex chain of models involved. This paper develops a data-driven methodological framework that enables calculating the uncertainty in average speed–based emission predictions induced by uncertainty in its traffic data inputs, which are most often predictions (or outputs) of traffic flow models. An ensemble-based optimisation approach is used to estimate both calibration and validation errors arising from uncertainty in the structure and parameterisation of the cell transmission model, a discretised first-order macroscopic traffic flow model that is often integrated with average speed–based emission models. A Monte Carlo sampling approach is proposed to propagate the uncertainty in traffic flow inputs to emission predictions. To ensure transferability of findings, this methodology has been tested using multiple real data sets on three motorway road networks, one of which operates under variable speed limits

Impact of Driving Cycles on Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions, Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Fuel Economy for SI Car Real World Driving

The transport sector is one of the major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. This study investigated three greenhouse gases emitted from road transport: CO2, N2O and CH4 emissions as a function of engine warm up and driving cycles. Five different urban driving cycles were developed and used including free flow driving and congested driving. An in-vehicle FTIR (Fourier Transform Inferred) emission measurement system was installed on a EURO2 emission compliant SI (Spark Ignition) car for emissions measurement at a rate of 0.5 HZ under real world urban driving conditions. This emission measurement system was calibrated on a standard CVS (Constant Volume Sampling) measurement system and showed excellent agreement on CO2 measurement with CVS results. The N2O and CH4 measurement was calibrated using calibration gas in lab. A MAX710 real time in-vehicle fuel consumption measurement system was installed in the test vehicle and real time fuel consumption was then obtained. The temperatures across the TWC (Three Way Catalyst) and engine out exhaust gas lambda were measured. The GHG (greenhouse gas) mass emissions and consequent GWP (Global Warming Potential) for different urban diving conditions were analyzed and presented. The results provided a better understanding of traffic related greenhouse gas emission profile in urban area and will contribute to the control of climate change

Working across difference: theory, practice and experience

Back in October 2015 I had the opportunity to chair the book launch for all three works discussed in this review essay. At the event, Shirley Anne Tate said, “Black feminist theory is the theory”. The comment referred to how it is not ‘just’ that Black feminist theory is typically marginalised within institutional contexts and academic scholarship, ‘even’ within critical, feminist and poststructural work, but also to highlight the capacity of Black feminist scholarship to unpick and destabilise the known and knowable in ways that are profoundly ontological, and which offer potential routes to meaningful social change through the hard task of working across difference. The three books reviewed here by Shirley Anne Tate, Suryia Nayak and Shona Hunter are theoretically rich and complex in breadth, scope and range, drawing on extensive Black feminist scholarship, as well as critical race, critical feminist, psychosocial, psychoanalytic, postcolonial, decolonial and poststructural approaches. Each book is embedded in everyday practices and social processes, offering multi-layered movement across different spatial-social and affective scales in ways that allow ‘big’ insights to emerge from the locatedness and particularity of human experience. They are reviewed in turn and some concluding comments identify important commonalities across the texts

Formal Hecke algebras and algebraic oriented cohomology theories

In the present paper we generalize the construction of the nil Hecke ring of Kostant-Kumar to the context of an arbitrary algebraic oriented cohomology theory of Levine-Morel and Panin-Smirnov, e.g. to Chow groups, Grothendieck's K_0, connective K-theory, elliptic cohomology, and algebraic cobordism. The resulting object, which we call a formal (affine) Demazure algebra, is parameterized by a one-dimensional commutative formal group law and has the following important property: specialization to the additive and multiplicative periodic formal group laws yields completions of the nil Hecke and the 0-Hecke rings respectively. We also introduce a deformed version of the formal (affine) Demazure algebra, which we call a formal (affine) Hecke algebra. We show that the specialization of the formal (affine) Hecke algebra to the additive and multiplicative periodic formal group laws gives completions of the degenerate (affine) Hecke algebra and the usual (affine) Hecke algebra respectively. We show that all formal affine Demazure algebras (and all formal affine Hecke algebras) become isomorphic over certain coefficient rings, proving an analogue of a result of Lusztig.Comment: 28 pages. v2: Some results strengthened and references added. v3: Minor corrections, section numbering changed to match published version. v4: Sign errors in Proposition 6.8(d) corrected. This version incorporates an erratum to the published versio

Determination of a Viral Load Threshold To Distinguish Symptomatic versus Asymptomatic Rotavirus Infection in a High-Disease-Burden African Population

We evaluated quantitative real-time PCR to establish the diagnosis of rotavirus gastroenteritis in a high-disease-burden population in Malawi using enzyme immunoassay as the gold standard diagnostic test. In 146 children with acute gastroenteritis and 65 asymptomatic children, we defined a cutoff point in the threshold cycle value (26.7) that predicts rotavirus-attributable gastroenteritis in this population. These data will inform the evaluation of direct and indirect rotavirus vaccine effects in Africa

A cost effectiveness and capacity analysis for the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination in Kenya : comparison between Rotarix and RotaTeq vaccines

Background Diarrhoea is an important cause of death in the developing world, and rotavirus is the single most important cause of diarrhoea associated mortality. Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are available to prevent rotavirus disease. This analysis was undertaken to aid the decision in Kenya as to which vaccine to choose when introducing rotavirus vaccination. Methods Cost-effectiveness modelling, using national and sentinel surveillance data, and an impact assessment on the cold chain. Results The median estimated incidence of rotavirus disease in Kenya was 3015 outpatient visits, 279 hospitalisations and 65 deaths per 100,000 children under five years of age per year. Cumulated over the first five years of life vaccination was predicted to prevent 34% of the outpatient visits, 31% of the hospitalizations and 42% of the deaths. The estimated prevented costs accumulated over five years totalled US$1,782,761 (direct and indirect costs) with an associated 48,585 DALYs. From a societal perspective Rotarix had a cost-effectiveness ratio of US$142 per DALY (US$5 for the full course of two doses) and RotaTeq US$288 per DALY ($10.5 for the full course of three doses). RotaTeq will have a bigger impact on the cold chain compared to Rotarix. Conclusion Vaccination against rotavirus disease is cost-effective for Kenya irrespective of the vaccine. Of the two vaccines Rotarix was the preferred choice due to a better cost-effectiveness ratio, the presence of a vaccine vial monitor, the requirement of fewer doses and less storage space, and proven thermo-stability

Emergence of Double- and Triple-Gene Reassortant G1P[8]Rotaviruses Possessing a DS-1-Like Backbone after RotavirusVaccine Introduction in Malawi

To combat the high burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis, multiple African countries have introduced rotavirus vaccines into their childhood immunisation programmes. Malawi incorporated a G1P[8] rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix™) into its immunisation schedule in 2012. Utilising a surveillance platform of hospitalised rotavirus gastroenteritis cases, we examined the phylodynamics of G1P[8] rotavirus strains that circulated in Malawi before (1998 - 2012) and after (2013 - 2014) vaccine introduction. Analysis of whole genomes obtained through next generation sequencing revealed that all randomly-selected pre-vaccine G1P[8] strains sequenced (n=32) possessed a Wa-like genetic constellation, whereas post-vaccine G1P[8] strains (n=18) had a DS-1-like constellation. Phylodynamic analyses indicated that post-vaccine G1P[8] strains emerged through reassortment events between human Wa- and DS-1-like rotaviruses that circulated in Malawi from the 1990's, hence classified as atypical DS-1-like reassortants. The time to the most recent common ancestor for G1P[8] strains was from 1981-1994; their evolutionary rates ranged from 9.7 x 10(-4)-4.1 x 10(-3) nucleotide/substitutions/site/year. Three distinct G1P[8] lineages chronologically replaced each other between 1998 and 2014. Genetic drift was the likely driver for lineage turnover in 2005, whereas replacement in 2013 was due to reassortment. Amino acid substitution within the outer glycoprotein VP7 of G1P[8] strains had no impact on the structural conformation of the antigenic regions, suggesting that it is unlikely that they would affect recognition by vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies. While the emergence of DS-1-like G1P[8] rotavirus reassortants in Malawi was therefore likely due to natural genotype variation, vaccine effectiveness against such strains needs careful evaluation.ImportanceThe error-prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerase and the segmented RNA genome predispose rotaviruses to genetic mutation and genome reassortment, respectively. These evolutionary mechanisms generate novel strains and have the potential to lead to the emergence of vaccine-escape mutants. While multiple African countries have introduced rotavirus vaccine, there are few data describing the evolution of rotaviruses that circulated before and after vaccine introduction. We report the emergence of atypical DS-1-like G1P[8] strains during the post-vaccine era in Malawi. Three distinct G1P[8] lineages circulated chronologically from 1998-2014; mutation and reassortment drove lineage turnover in 2005 and 2013, respectively. Amino acid substitutions within the outer capsid VP7 glycoprotein did not affect the structural conformation of mapped antigenic sites, suggesting limited effect in recognition of G1 specific vaccine-derived antibodies. The genes that constitute the remaining genetic backbone may play important roles in immune evasion, and vaccine effectiveness against such atypical strains needs careful evaluation

Incidence of intussusception in Singaporean children aged less than 2 years: A hospital-based prospective study

10.1186/1471-2431-13-161BMC Pediatrics131-BPME

Western Indian Ocean marine and terrestrial records of climate variability: a review and new concepts on land-ocean interactions since AD 1660

We examine the relationship between three tropical and two subtropical western Indian Ocean coral oxygen isotope time series to surface air temperatures (SAT) and rainfall over India, tropical East Africa and southeast Africa. We review established relationships, provide new concepts with regard to distinct rainfall seasons, and mean annual temperatures. Tropical corals are coherent with SAT over western India and East Africa at interannual and multidecadal periodicities. The subtropical corals correlate with Southeast African SAT at periodicities of 16–30 years. The relationship between the coral records and land rainfall is more complex. Running correlations suggest varying strength of interannual teleconnections between the tropical coral oxygen isotope records and rainfall over equatorial East Africa. The relationship with rainfall over India changed in the 1970s. The subtropical oxygen isotope records are coherent with South African rainfall at interdecadal periodicities. Paleoclimatological reconstructions of land rainfall and SAT reveal that the inferred relationships generally hold during the last 350 years. Thus, the Indian Ocean corals prove invaluable for investigating land–ocean interactions during past centuries