Multivariate Hierarchical Frameworks for Modelling Delayed Reporting in Count Data

In many fields and applications count data can be subject to delayed reporting. This is where the total count, such as the number of disease cases contracted in a given week, may not be immediately available, instead arriving in parts over time. For short term decision making, the statistical challenge lies in predicting the total count based on any observed partial counts, along with a robust quantification of uncertainty. In this article we discuss previous approaches to modelling delayed reporting and present a multivariate hierarchical framework where the count generating process and delay mechanism are modelled simultaneously. Unlike other approaches, the framework can also be easily adapted to allow for the presence of under-reporting in the final observed count. To compare our approach with existing frameworks, one of which we extend to potentially improve predictive performance, we present a case study of reported dengue fever cases in Rio de Janeiro. Based on both within-sample and out-of-sample posterior predictive model checking and arguments of interpretability, adaptability, and computational efficiency, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each modelling framework.Comment: Biometrics (2019

Assessment of available anatomical characters for linking living mammals to fossil taxa in phylogenetic analyses

ORCID: 0000-0003-4919-8655© 2016 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. The file attached is the published version of the article

Incorporating weather information into real-time speed estimates: comparison of alternative models

Weather information is frequently requested by travelers. Prior literature indicates that inclement weather is one of the most important factors contributing to traffic congestion and crashes. In this paper, we propose a methodology to use real-time weather information to predict future speeds. The reason for doing so is to ultimately have the capability to disseminate weather-responsive travel time estimates to those requesting information. Using a stratified sampling technique, we select cases with different weather conditions (precipitation levels) and use a linear regression model (called the base model) and a statistical learning model (using Support Vector Machines for Regression) to predict 30-minute ahead speeds. One of the major inputs into a weather-responsive short-term speed prediction method is weather forecasts; however, weather forecasts may themselves be inaccurate. We assess the effects of such inaccuracies by means of simulations. The predictive accuracy of the SVR models show that statistical learning methods may be useful in bringing together streaming forecasted weather data and real-time information on downstream traffic conditions to enable travelers to make informed choices

Variability in measurements of micro lengths with a white light interferometer

The effect of the discretionary set‐up parameters scan length and initial scanner position on the measurements of length performed with a white light interferometer microscope was investigated. In both analyses, two reference materials of nominal lengths 40 and 200 µm were considered. Random effects and mixed effects models were fitted to the data from two separate experiments. Punctual and interval estimates of variance components were provided

Habitual accountability routines in the boardroom: How boards balance control and collaboration

open3siCorporate accountability is a complex chain of reporting that reaches from external stakeholders into the organization’s management structure. The transition from external to internal accountability mechanisms primarily occurs at the board of directors. Yet outside of incentive mechanisms, we know surprisingly little about how internal actors (management) are held to account by the representatives of external shareholders (the board). This paper explores the process of accountability at this transition point by documenting the routines used by boards to hold the firm’s management to account. In so doing we develop our understanding of the important transition between internal and external firm accountability.embargoed_20190401Nicholson, Gavin; Pugliese, Amedeo; Bezemer, Pieter JanNicholson, Gavin; Pugliese, Amedeo; Bezemer, Pieter Ja

Multiple morbidities in companion dogs: a novel model for investigating age-related disease

The proportion of men and women surviving over 65 years has been steadily increasing over the last century. In their later years, many of these individuals are afflicted with multiple chronic conditions, placing increasing pressure on healthcare systems. The accumulation of multiple health problems with advanced age is well documented, yet the causes are poorly understood. Animal models have long been employed in attempts to elucidate these complex mechanisms with limited success. Recently, the domestic dog has been proposed as a promising model of human aging for several reasons. Mean lifespan shows twofold variation across dog breeds. In addition, dogs closely share the environments of their owners, and substantial veterinary resources are dedicated to comprehensive diagnosis of conditions in dogs. However, while dogs are therefore useful for studying multimorbidity, little is known about how aging influences the accumulation of multiple concurrent disease conditions across dog breeds. The current study examines how age, body weight, and breed contribute to variation in multimorbidity in over 2,000 companion dogs visiting private veterinary clinics in England. In common with humans, we find that the number of diagnoses increases significantly with age in dogs. However, we find no significant weight or breed effects on morbidity number. This surprising result reveals that while breeds may vary in their average longevity and causes of death, their age-related trajectories of morbidities differ little, suggesting that age of onset of disease may be the source of variation in lifespan across breeds. Future studies with increased sample sizes and longitudinal monitoring may help us discern more breed-specific patterns in morbidity. Overall, the large increase in multimorbidity seen with age in dogs mirrors that seen in humans and lends even more credence to the value of companion dogs as models for human morbidity and mortality

Genetic distance predicts trait differentiation at the subpopulation but not the individual level in eelgrass, Zostera marina.

Ecological studies often assume that genetically similar individuals will be more similar in phenotypic traits, such that genetic diversity can serve as a proxy for trait diversity. Here, we explicitly test the relationship between genetic relatedness and trait distance using 40 eelgrass (Zostera marina) genotypes from five sites within Bodega Harbor, CA. We measured traits related to nutrient uptake, morphology, biomass and growth, photosynthesis, and chemical deterrents for all genotypes. We used these trait measurements to calculate a multivariate pairwise trait distance for all possible genotype combinations. We then estimated pairwise relatedness from 11 microsatellite markers. We found significant trait variation among genotypes for nearly every measured trait; however, there was no evidence of a significant correlation between pairwise genetic relatedness and multivariate trait distance among individuals. However, at the subpopulation level (sites within a harbor), genetic (FST) and trait differentiation were positively correlated. Our work suggests that pairwise relatedness estimated from neutral marker loci is a poor proxy for trait differentiation between individual genotypes. It remains to be seen whether genomewide measures of genetic differentiation or easily measured "master" traits (like body size) might provide good predictions of overall trait differentiation

Differential sperm storage by female zebra finches Taeniopygia guttata

When females mate promiscuously, female sperm storage provides scope to bias the fertilization success towards particular males via the non-random acceptance and utilization of sperm. The difficulties observing postcopulatory processes within the female reproductive tract mean that the mechanisms underlying cryptic female choice remain poorly understood. Here, we use zebra finches Taeniopygia guttata, selected for divergent sperm lengths, combined with a novel technique for isolating and extracting sperm from avian sperm storage tubules (SSTs), to test the hypothesis that sperm from separate ejaculates are stored differentially by female birds. We show that sperm from different inseminations enter different SSTs in the female reproductive tract, resulting in almost complete segregation of the sperm of competing males. We propose that non-random acceptance of sperm into SSTs, reflected in this case by sperm phenotype, provides a mechanism by which long sperm enjoy enhanced fertilization success in zebra finches

Assessing the effects of repeated handling on physiology and condition of semi-precocial nestlings

Repeated exposure to elevated levels of glucocorticoids during development can have long-term detrimental effects on survival and fitness, potentially associated with increased telomere attrition. Nestling birds are regularly handled for ecological research, yet few authors have considered the potential for handling-induced stress to influence hormonally-mediated phenotypic development or bias interpretations of subsequent focal measurements. We experimentally manipulated the handling experience of the semi-precocial nestlings of European Storm Petrel Hydrobates pelagicus to simulate handling in a typical field study and examined cumulative effects on physiology and condition in late postnatal development. Neither baseline corticosterone (the primary glucocorticoid in birds), telomere length nor body condition varied with the number of handling episodes. The absence of a response could be explained if Storm Petrels did not perceive handling to be stressful or if there is dissociation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis from stressful stimuli in early life. Eliciting a response to a stressor may be maladaptive for cavity-dwelling young that are unable to escape or defend themselves. Furthermore, avoiding elevated overall glucocorticoid exposure may be particularly important in a long-lived species, in which accelerated early-life telomere erosion could impact negatively upon longevity. We propose that the level of colony-wide disturbance induced by investigator handling of young could be important in underlining species-specific responses. Storm Petrel nestlings appear unresponsive to investigator handling within the limits of handling in a typical field study and handling at this level should not bias physiological and morphological measurements