Do Introduction Programs Affect the Probability of Immigrants getting Work?

Many immigrants who come to Sweden are offered an introduction program. This is supposed to allow the individual to develop the skills he or she needs to be able to enter the Swedish labor market. With a unique Swedish dataset, containing information on introduction activities, we investigate the impact of different introduction activities on the immigrants’ employment probability, in a short-run perspective. Our basic findings are that some activities, such as labor market practice, have a positive effect, while other activities do not seem to have any impact or even negative effect on the individuals’ probabilities of getting a job.Immigrants; labor market; introduction programs

Disaggregating Okun's law: decomposing the impact of the expenditure components of GDP on euro area unemployment

This paper examines the usefulness of the Okun relationship as a “rule of thumb” for predicting changes in unemployment, as a result of changes in output. It argues that a disaggregated version of the Okun relationship – making use of the differential reaction of unemployment to changes in the various expenditure components of GDP - significantly enhances the capacity of the Okun relationship (in comparison to the aggregate “rule of thumb”) for predicting movements in unemployment. The paper tests this hypothesis using a dataset for the 17 euro area countries over the period 1996Q1-2013Q4. The results suggest that euro area unemployment is particularly sensitive to movements in the consumption component of GDP, while movements in foreign trade (exports and imports) have a much lower impact on unemployment developments. This reflects the highly labour-intensive nature of the services that represent the bulk of consumers’ expenditure, while the higher productivity manufacturing-related content of exports tends to be less labour intensive

Potential output from a euro area perspective

This paper reviews potential output from a euro area perspective by summarising the developments according to international institutions and assessing the impact of the crisis. The paper also considers the methodological basis for potential output estimates, and the high degree of uncertainty that surrounds them. Although it is too early to see the full effects of structural reforms implemented since 2007/08, further structural reforms are needed to support euro area potential growth, especially in view of the negative impact that population ageing is expected to have on potential growth in the future

Adjusting for Information Content When Comparing Forecast Performance

Cross institutional forecast evaluations may be severely distorted by the fact that forecasts are made at different points in time, and thus with different amount of information. This paper proposes a method to account for these differences. The method computes the timing effect and the forecaster's ability simultaneously. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that evaluations that do not adjust for the differences in information content may be misleading. In addition, the method is applied on a real-world data set of 10 Swedish forecasters for the period 1999-2015. The results show that the ranking of the forecasters is affected by the proposed adjustment

Employment duration and shifts into retirement in the EU

According to Principal-Agent theory, states (the principal) delegate the implementation of a legalized agreement to an international organization (the agent). The conventional wisdom about states’ capacity to control international organizations is that differences among the member states impede control and consequently enhance the agent’s autonomy, whereas agreement allows for effective control and limited autonomy. Contrary to this conventional wisdom, this article argues that conflicts among states need not impede effective control. On the contrary: it harbors gains from the exchange of informal control over an organization’s divisions. As a result, international organizations exhibit informal spheres of influence, or national chiefdoms. The article demonstrated the theory’s plausibility using the example of the EU. It has implications for the literature on delegation and informal governance