Estimating the distribution of inflation expectations

In this paper, we use survey data to estimate the shape of the distribution of inflation expectations. However, unlike previous studies, we do not assume a distribution a priori. We employ an applied approximation method using normal distribution: Cornish-Fisher expansion. Skewness and kurtosis may provide necessary information for understanding the shape of the distribution of inflation expectations. The estimated inflation expectations contain slight biasedness and are not fully efficient, but some superiority can be verified.Inflation expectations, Survey data, Skewness and kurtosis

H-vectors of simplicial complexes with Serre's conditions

We study $h$-vectors of simplicial complexes which satisfy Serre's condition ($S_r$). We say that a simplicial complex $\Delta$ satisfies Serre's condition ($S_r$) if \tilde H_i(\lk_\Delta(F);K)=0 for all faces $F \in \Delta$ and for all i < \min \{r-1,\dim \lk_\Delta(F)\}, where \lk_\Delta(F) is the link of $\Delta$ with respect to $F$ and where $\tilde H_i(\Delta;K)$ is the reduced homology groups of $\Delta$ over a field $K$. The main result of this paper is that if $\Delta$ satisfies Serre's condition ($S_r$) then (i) $h_k(\Delta)$ is non-negative for $k =0,1,...,r$ and (ii) $\sum_{k\geq r}h_k(\Delta)$ is non-negative.Comment: To appear in Math. Res. Let

Interregional Disparities in Productivity and the Choice of Fiscal Regime

Two districts with divergent productivity levels engage in policy-making on the provision of local public goods that enhance future income and hence create a dynamic linkage across periods. The policy choices of district representatives are derived under alternative fiscal systems, and the problem of system selection is examined. It is shown that a decentralized system is more likely to be selected in a more equal society. On the other hand, when a great deal of benefit spills over from a local public good, or when policy makers are expected to care solely about the immediate effects of their decisions on their districts, a centralized system is more likely to be selected.Interregional and intergenerational spillovers; Decentralization; Centralization; Disparity in productivity; Dynamic political economy model

Dynamics of an Acoustic Polaron in One-Dimensional Electron-Lattice System

The dynamical behavior of an acoustic polaron in typical non-degenerate conjugated polymer, polydiacetylene, is numerically studied by using Su-Schrieffer-Heeger's model for the one dimensional electron-lattice system. It is confirmed that the velocity of a polaron accelerated by a constant electric field shows a saturation to a velocity close to the sound velocity of the system, and that the width of a moving polaron decreases as a monotonic function of the velocity tending to zero at the saturation velocity. The effective mass of a polaron is estimated to be about one hundred times as heavy as the bare electron mass. Furthermore the linear mode analysis in the presence of a polaron is carried out, leading to the conclusion that there is only one localized mode, i.e. the translational mode. This is confirmed also from the phase shift of extended modes. There is no localized mode corresponding to the amplitude mode in the case of the soliton in polyacetylene. Nevertheless the width of a moving polaron shows small oscillations in time. This is found to be related to the lowest odd symmetry extended mode and to be due to the finite size effect.Comment: 12 pages, latex, 9 figures (postscript figures abailble on request to [email protected]) to be published in J. Phys. Soc. Jpn. vol.65 (1996) No.