Benefit Transfer over Time of Ecosystem Values: the Case of Forest Recreation

We conduct a functional benefit transfer over 20 years of total willingness to pay based on car-borne forest recreation in 52 forests, using a mixed specification of a random utility model and geographic information systems to allow heterogeneous preferences across the population and for heterogeneity over space. Results show that some preferences of forest attributes, such as species diversity and age, as well as transport mode have changed significantly over the period. Updating the transfer model with present demand for recreation improves the error margins by an average of 182%. However, average errors of the best transfer model remain 145%.random utility model, value transfer over time, recreation, GIS

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Vibe Termansen analyserer baggrunden for Orbáns betydelige popularitet trods Ungarns EU-rekord i korruption og stigende utilfredshed jævnfør World Happiness Report fra 2019

Species distribution models for crop pollination: a modelling framework applied to Great Britain

Insect pollination benefits over three quarters of the world's major crops. There is growing concern that observed declines in pollinators may impact on production and revenues from animal pollinated crops. Knowing the distribution of pollinators is therefore crucial for estimating their availability to pollinate crops; however, in general, we have an incomplete knowledge of where these pollinators occur. We propose a method to predict geographical patterns of pollination service to crops, novel in two elements: the use of pollinator records rather than expert knowledge to predict pollinator occurrence, and the inclusion of the managed pollinator supply. We integrated a maximum entropy species distribution model (SDM) with an existing pollination service model (PSM) to derive the availability of pollinators for crop pollination. We used nation-wide records of wild and managed pollinators (honey bees) as well as agricultural data from Great Britain. We first calibrated the SDM on a representative sample of bee and hoverfly crop pollinator species, evaluating the effects of different settings on model performance and on its capacity to identify the most important predictors. The importance of the different predictors was better resolved by SDM derived from simpler functions, with consistent results for bees and hoverflies. We then used the species distributions from the calibrated model to predict pollination service of wild and managed pollinators, using field beans as a test case. The PSM allowed us to spatially characterize the contribution of wild and managed pollinators and also identify areas potentially vulnerable to low pollination service provision, which can help direct local scale interventions. This approach can be extended to investigate geographical mismatches between crop pollination demand and the availability of pollinators, resulting from environmental change or policy scenarios

Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits

Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, but which are predicted to provide sub-optimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios

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Skandinavisk designkultur medieret på Instagram

Med fremkomsten af smartphones og sociale medier bruger vi mere og mere medier i vores hverdag og oplever, hvordan vi påvirkes af indholdet på disse. Forbrugerne er også selv med til at generere indhold til og interagere med hinanden igennem medier. Herunder er design noget af det indhold, som især medieres af forbrugere, men i lige så høj grad af designvirksomheder. Skillelinjen mellem hvilken mediering, der er forbrugerskabt eller producentskabt, er blevet mindre, men er det mediets betingelser eller brugerne til indholdet, der er årsag til disse sammenlignelige medieringer? I opgavens undersøges hvordan det ”skandinaviske” medieres i designprodukter på det sociale medie Instagram. Opgavens tese er, at medieringerne af design hos virksomhederne og hos forbrugerne ligger tæt op ad hinanden, da Instagram som medie har brudt grænsen mellem produktion og forbrug, og der dermed er en kollektiv identifikation tilstede