Further policy implications of rising Aboriginal fertility in the 1990s

Previous Aboriginal fertility studies based on comprehensive analyses of the 1986 and earlier Australian censuses found a trend of a substantial fertility decline in the 1970s and early 1980s, which led to the conclusion that the decline would continue. However, the results of two recent studies, based on the 1991 Census, contradicted the continuation of Aboriginal fertility decline. In general, the results obtained by analysing Aboriginal fertility level and trend are suspect owing to lack of detailed and reliable Aboriginal demographic data. In particular, the two recent studies are suspect, as the 1991 Census did not collect any fertility information. This study, utilising data from the 1986 Census, the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Survey 1994 birth registration and midwives' birth notifications compiled by States, attempts to answer the question of whether Aboriginal fertility has declined since the second half of the 1980s. By utilising these sources of data, this study estimates Aboriginal fertility level as well as analyses the trend in fertility. It also estimates Aboriginal fertility level and pattern for most States. The results of the analysis shows that Aboriginal fertility has not declined since the second half of the 1980s as expected. The conclusion discusses some of the implications of the continued moderate Aboriginal fertility. The paper provides suggestions for improving Aboriginal birth registration and midwives' birth notifications data

Fertility and infertility in Ethiopia

This research examines fertility and infertility in Ethiopia. Its two major objectives are the estimation of regional and overall fertility and infertility levels over time for the rural population and Addis Ababa, the capital city; and a comparative fertility study by regions, rural-city, and by demographic and socio-economic characteristics of individual women. This study uses data from various sources to arrive at a coherent picture of fertility levels and trends in Ethiopia: these include a primary analysis of the 1980-81 Demographic Survey of the rural areas and a subset of the 1984 Addis Ababa Population Census data tapes. Indirect estimation of fertility levels showed a substantial recent fertility change in Ethiopia. Rural fertility increased from a moderate level of 5.6 children per woman in the 1965-70 period to a very high level of 7.7 children in 1980-81. Regional estimates also showed a universal rise in rural fertility. On the other hand, the fertility of the city was found to be comparatively low, and declined from about five children per woman in the 1967-78 period to four in 1983-84. The fertility rise in the rural areas was due to a declining trend of infecundity and subfertility, and changes in the age pattern of overall and marital fertility leading to enhanced fertility of women over age 30 in 1980-81 compared to the lower fecundity of these women in the earlier periods; as the proportion married has remained stable at a favourably high level. The study has shown that the low-fertility regions had high childlessness associated with low maternal fertility, and the converse was true for highfertility regions. The low fertility of the city was found to be due to a combination of a markedly high level of childlessness and relatively low maternal fertility. Nevertheless, the low fertility of the city was also found to be due to the unfavourable marital status patterns caused by migration, urbanization and education. Thus, it was also due to later marriage, and comparatively low proportions married. The study documented the existence of high levels of infecundity and subfertility in Ethiopia with considerable variations by region of residence and ethnicity, and has shown the extension of the broad belt of infertility and low fertility of Africa from Central Africa into Ethiopia. The multivariate analysis of rural marital fertility showed that region, length of residence in a given area, ethnicity, and literacy status had significant effects. While age is the most important factor among the young, region and ethnicity were found to be the most important factors influencing completed marital fertility. The factors that jointly had significant fertility effects both among the young and the old in the city were age, educational level, ethnicity, length of residence in the city, and economic activity status. The important determinants of completed marital fertility were the social factors, ethnicity and religion, while among the young, they were age, ethnicity and educational level. While being literate in the rural areas had a depressing effect on fertility, education in the city had such an effect only for those women with post-primary education. The study concludes by giving a perspective of rising fertility for Ethiopia for some time to come, while prospects of early decline are contingent upon the country implementing a population policy to curb its high fertility

Do fluctuations in the Australian macroeconomy influence Aboriginal employment status?

There is considerable evidence that the factors influencing Aboriginal employment differ from those affecting the general Australian population. This paper considers further evidence of the changes over time in Aboriginal employment as measured in the Censuses of 1971, 1976, 1981 and 1986. It asks two questions. First, has the Aboriginal population experienced different unemployment rates than the rest of the population? And second, has the industry mix of the Aboriginal population varied from that of the rest of the population? The evidence presented shows that the importance of the agricultural industry as a source of Aboriginal employment declined markedly between 1971 and 1986 and publicly-funded industries became the major employers of Aboriginal people. Data on the position of Aborigines in the labour market since 1986 are extremely limited but the calculations we have made suggest that private sector employment for Aborigines has declined further between 1986 and 1991 despite the launch of the Aboriginal Employment Development Policy in 1986 and associated training programs focusing on private sector employment. We argue that the reliance on public sector funding has partially insulated the Aboriginal population from the effects of the current recession, but has left them with a high dependence on special Aboriginal programs and vulnerable to any sudden changes in policy

(In)securing Humanitarian Space? - A study of Civil-Military Interaction in Mali

United Nations peacekeeping operations have been through notable changes during the last twenty years. Peacekeepers are now deployed in on-going conflicts were there are no peace to keep. This shift includes a robust turn, where the peacekeepers are mandated to use force for a longer-term involvement. In addition, UN´s role as an impartial actor has moved towards the political goal of stabilization. That the UN now is seen as an impartial actor has highlighted the conflicting interface between the peacekeepers and humanitarian actors, and also raised challenging questions about the preservation of humanitarian space in the new context of UN peacekeeping. The on-going peacekeeping mission in Mali, known by its French acronym MINUSMA, serves as an example of the new category of UN peacekeeping operations. Often referred to as the deadliest peacekeeping mission today, MINUSMA has been faced with several challenges since its deployment in 2013, including the threat from jihadist groups. In this thesis, I have studied to what extent a clear division between humanitarian actors and MINUSMA is a precondition for the preservation of humanitarian space in the context of northern Mali. This has been done through so-called analytical eclecticism, where different theoretical approaches on civil-military interaction have been deployed to answer the research question. Based on interviews conducted during a fieldwork in Bamako, I find that that the civil-military interaction in Mali today is limited and challenging. The humanitarians perceive the UN peacekeeping force as an obstacle to their activities, as well as a threat to their security. This must be seen in relation to the volatile nature of the conflict, and the peacekeepers political involvement. The analysis also illustrates that it was easier to conduct humanitarian activities in northern Mali before the deployment of MINUSMA. Accordingly, a clear division between humanitarian actors and MINUSMA is to a large extent seen as a precondition to preserve humanitarian space