Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings

Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter) estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free) reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating

Metabolic analysis of the interaction between plants and herbivores

Insect herbivores by necessity have to deal with a large arsenal of plant defence metabolites. The levels of defence compounds may be increased by insect damage. These induced plant responses may also affect the metabolism and performance of successive insect herbivores. As the chemical nature of induced responses is largely unknown, global metabolomic analyses are a valuable tool to gain more insight into the metabolites possibly involved in such interactions. This study analyzed the interaction between feral cabbage (Brassica oleracea) and small cabbage white caterpillars (Pieris rapae) and how previous attacks to the plant affect the caterpillar metabolism. Because plants may be induced by shoot and root herbivory, we compared shoot and root induction by treating the plants on either plant part with jasmonic acid. Extracts of the plants and the caterpillars were chemically analysed using Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography/Time of Flight Mass Spectrometry (UPLCT/MS). The study revealed that the levels of three structurally related coumaroylquinic acids were elevated in plants treated on the shoot. The levels of these compounds in plants and caterpillars were highly correlated: these compounds were defined as the ‘metabolic interface’. The role of these metabolites could only be discovered using simultaneous analysis of the plant and caterpillar metabolomes. We conclude that a metabolomics approach is useful in discovering unexpected bioactive compounds involved in ecological interactions between plants and their herbivores and higher trophic levels.

Study of the Decays B0 --> D(*)+D(*)-

The decays B0 --> D*+D*-, B0 --> D*+D- and B0 --> D+D- are studied in 9.7 million Y(4S) --> BBbar decays accumulated with the CLEO detector. We determine Br(B0 --> D*+D*-) = (9.9+4.2-3.3+-1.2)e-4 and limit Br(B0 --> D*+D-) < 6.3e-4 and Br(B0 --> D+D-) < 9.4e-4 at 90% confidence level (CL). We also perform the first angular analysis of the B0 --> D*+D*- decay and determine that the CP-even fraction of the final state is greater than 0.11 at 90% CL. Future measurements of the time dependence of these decays may be useful for the investigation of CP violation in neutral B meson decays.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Improved Measurement of the Pseudoscalar Decay Constant fDsf_{D_{s}}

We present a new determination of the Ds decay constant, f_{Ds} using 5 million continuum charm events obtained with the CLEO II detector. Our value is derived from our new measured ratio of widths for Ds -> mu nu/Ds -> phi pi of 0.173+/- 0.021 +/- 0.031. Taking the branching ratio for Ds -> phi pi as (3.6 +/- 0.9)% from the PDG, we extract f_{Ds} = (280 +/- 17 +/- 25 +/- 34){MeV}. We compare this result with various model calculations.Comment: 23 page postscript file, postscript file also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN

Measurement of B(/\c->pKpi)

The /\c->pKpi yield has been measured in a sample of two-jet continuum events containing a both an anticharm tag (Dbar) as well as an antiproton (e+e- -> Dbar pbar X), with the antiproton in the hemisphere opposite the Dbar. Under the hypothesis that such selection criteria tag e+e- -> Dbar pbar (/\c) X events, the /\c->pkpi branching fraction can be determined by measuring the pkpi yield in the same hemisphere as the antiprotons in our Dbar pbar X sample. Combining our results from three independent types of anticharm tags, we obtain B(/\c->pKpi)=(5.0+/-0.5+/-1.2)

Search for the Decays B^0 -> D^{(*)+} D^{(*)-}

Using the CLEO-II data set we have searched for the Cabibbo-suppressed decays B^0 -> D^{(*)+} D^{(*)-}. For the decay B^0 -> D^{*+} D^{*-}, we observe one candidate signal event, with an expected background of 0.022 +/- 0.011 events. This yield corresponds to a branching fraction of Br(B^0 -> D^{*+} D^{*-}) = (5.3^{+7.1}_{-3.7}(stat) +/- 1.0(syst)) x 10^{-4} and an upper limit of Br(B^0 -> D^{*+} D^{*-}) D^{*\pm} D^\mp and B^0 -> D^+ D^-, no significant excess of signal above the expected background level is seen, and we calculate the 90% CL upper limits on the branching fractions to be Br(B^0 -> D^{*\pm} D^\mp) D^+ D^-) < 1.2 x 10^{-3}.Comment: 12 page postscript file also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to Physical Review Letter

Measurement of Exclusive B Decays to Final States Containing a Charmed Baryon

Using data collected by the CLEO detector in the Upsilon(4S) region, we report new measurements of the exclusive decays of B mesons into final states of the type Lambda_c^+ p-bar n(pi), where n=0,1,2,3. We find signals in modes with one, two and three pions and an upper limit for the two body decay Lambda_c^+ pbar. We also make the first measurements of exclusive decays of B mesons to Sigma_c p-bar n(pi), where n=0,1,2. We find signals in modes with one and two pions and an upper limit for the two body decay Sigma_c p-bar. Measurements of these modes shed light on the mechanisms involved in B decays to baryons.Comment: 11 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to PR

Observation of the Ωc0\Omega_{c}^{0} Charmed Baryon at CLEO

The CLEO experiment at the CESR collider has used 13.7 fb$^{-1}$ of data to search for the production of the $\Omega_c^0$ (css-ground state) in $e^{+}e^{-}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} \simeq 10.6$ {\rm GeV}. The modes used to study the $\Omega_c^0$ are $\Omega^- \pi^+$, $\Omega^- \pi^+ \pi^0$, $\Xi^- K^- pi^+ \pi^+$, $\Xi^0 K^- pi^+$, and $\Omega^- \pi^+ \pi^- \pi^+$. We observe a signal of 40.4$\pm$9.0(stat) events at a mass of 2694.6$\pm$2.6(stat)$\pm$1.9(syst) {\rm MeV/$c^2$}, for all modes combined.Comment: 10 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN

Measurements of B --> D_s^{(*)+} D^{*(*)} Branching Fractions

This article describes improved measurements by CLEO of the $B^0 \to D_s^+ D^{*-}$ and $B^0 \to D_s^{*+} D^{*-}$ branching fractions, and first evidence for the decay $B^+ \to D_s^{(*)+} \bar{D}^{**0}$, where $\bar{D}^{**0}$ represents the sum of the $\bar{D}_1(2420)^0$, $\bar{D}_2^*(2460)^0$, and $\bar{D}_1(j=1/2)^0$ L=1 charm meson states. Also reported is the first measurement of the $D_s^{*+}$ polarization in the decay $B^0 \to D_s^{*+} D^{*-}$. A partial reconstruction technique, employing only the fully reconstructed $D_s^+$ and slow pion $\pi_s^-$ from the $D^{*-} \to \bar{D}^0 \pi^-_s$ decay, enhances sensitivity. The observed branching fractions are ${\mathcal B} (B^0 \to D_s^+ D^{*-}) = (1.10 \pm 0.18 \pm 0.10 \pm 0.28)$, ${\mathcal B} (B^0 \to D_s^{*+} D^{*-}) = (1.82 \pm 0.37 \pm 0.24 \pm 0.46)$, and ${\mathcal B} (B^+ \to D_s^{(*)+} \bar{D}^{**0}) = (2.73 \pm 0.78 \pm 0.48 \pm 0.68)$, where the first error is statistical, the second systematic, and the third is due to the uncertainty in the $D_s^+ \to \phi \pi^+$ branching fraction. The measured $D_s^{*+}$ longitudinal polarization, $\Gamma_L/\Gamma = (50.6 \pm 13.9 \pm 3.6)$, is consistent with the factorization prediction of 54%.Comment: 26 pages (LaTeX), 15 figures. To be submitted to PR

Measurement of the Relative Branching Fraction of Υ(4S)\Upsilon(4S) to Charged and Neutral B-Meson Pairs

We analyze 9.7 x 10^6 B\bar{B}$ pairs recorded with the CLEO detector to determine the production ratio of charged to neutral B-meson pairs produced at the Y(4S) resonance. We measure the rates for B^0 -> J/psi K^{(*)0} and B^+ -> J/psi K^{(*)+} decays and use the world-average B-meson lifetime ratio to extract the relative widths f+-/f00 = Gamma(Y(4S) -> B+B-)/Gamma(Y(4S) -> B0\bar{B0}) = = 1.04 +/- 0.07(stat) +/- 0.04(syst). With the assumption that f+- + f00 = 1, we obtain f00 = 0.49 +/- 0.02(stat) +/- 0.01(syst) and f+- = 0.51 +/- 0.02(stat) +/- 0.01(syst). This production ratio and its uncertainty apply to all exclusive B-meson branching fractions measured at the Y(4S) resonance.Comment: 11 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN