The Soverato flood in Southern Italy: performance of global and limited-area ensemble forecasts

The predictability of the flood event affecting Soverato (Southern Italy) in September 2000 is investigated by considering three different configurations of ECMWF ensemble: the operational Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), the targeted EPS and a high-resolution version of EPS. For each configuration, three successive runs of ECMWF ensemble with the same verification time are grouped together so as to generate a highly-populated "super-ensemble". Then, five members are selected from the super-ensemble and used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the integrations with a limited-area model, whose runs generate a Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS). The relative impact of targeting the initial perturbations against increasing the horizontal resolution is assessed for the global ensembles as well as for the properties transferred to LEPS integrations, the attention being focussed on the probabilistic prediction of rainfall over a localised area. At the 108, 84 and 60- hour forecast ranges, the overall performance of the global ensembles is not particularly accurate and the best results are obtained by the high-resolution version of EPS. The LEPS performance is very satisfactory in all configurations and the rainfall maps show probability peaks in the correct regions. LEPS products would have been of great assistance to issue flood risk alerts on the basis of limited-area ensemble forecasts. For the 60-hour forecast range, the sensitivity of the results to the LEPS ensemble size is discussed by comparing a 5-member against a 51-member LEPS, where the limited-area model is nested on all EPS members. Little sensitivity is found as concerns the detection of the regions most likely affected by heavy precipitation, the probability peaks being approximately the same in both configurations

Lipid profile during pregnancy in HIV-infected women

Purpose: We investigated the evolution of serum lipid levels in HIV-infected pregnant women and the potential effect of antiretroviral treatment during pregnancy using data from a national surveillance study. Method: Fasting lipid measurements collected during routine care in pregnancy were used, analyzing longitudinal changes and differences in lipid values at each trimester by protease inhibitors (Pls) and stavudine use. Multivariate analyses were used to control for simultaneous factors potentially leading to hyperlipidemia. Study population included 248 women. Results: Lipid values increased progressively and significantly during pregnancy: mean increases between the first and third trimesters were 141.6 mg/dL for triglycerides (p <.001), 60.8 mg/dL for total cholesterol (p <.001), 13.7 mg/dL for HDL cholesterol (p <.001), and 17.8 mg/dL for LDL cholesterol (p =.001). At all trimesters, women on PIs had significantly higher triglyceride values compared to women not on Pis. The effect of Pls on cholesterol levels was less consistent. Stavudine showed a dyslipidemic effect at first trimester only. Multivariate analyses confirmed these observations and suggested a potential role of other cofactors in the development of hyperlipidemia during pregnancy. Conclusion: The changes observed point to the need to further explore the causes and the clinical correlates of hyperlipidemia during pregnancy in women with HIV

Factors associated with quality of services for marginalized groups with mental health problems in 14 European countries

This research was financially supported by DG-Sanco (contract: 800197; 2007-2010). The authors would like to thank all of the professionals and services who participated in the PROMO assessment of services. A PhD grant from Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia–Portugal (SFRH/BD/66388/2009) to the first author is acknowledged

Intestinal morpho-physiology and innate immune status of European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) in response to diets including a blend of two marine microalgae, Tisochrysis lutea and Tetraselmis suecica

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of replacing graded levels of dietary fish meal by a blend of two marine microalgae Tisochrysis lutea and Tetraselmis suecica on intestinal morpho-physiology and innate immune response in European sea bass. Two complete diets were formulated to be iso-nitrogenous and isolipidic and prepared by including a blend of the two microalgae, to replace approximately 15 and 45% fish meal protein of the control diet. A fourth diet, where the microalgae mix was substituted by soybean meal, was also prepared. Each diet was offered until visual satiety over 105 days to triplicated groups of European sea bass (204 \ub1 12.7 g), kept in a recirculating marine water system. The humoral and cellular innate immune parameters of E. sea bass were affected by the dietary treatment. Fish fed the microalgae-containing or the soybean rich diets, showed a significantly greater villi height, while the thickness of intestinal epithelium was significantly reduced in fish fed the soybean meal-rich diet. The activity of the brush border membrane enzymes, maltase, sucrase-isomaltase, \u3b3-glutamil transferase and alkaline phosphatase was not affected by dietary treatment but changed in different intestinal tracts. The genes sucrase-isomaltase, peptide transporter 1, sodium/potassium-transporting ATPase and aminopeptidase N were overexpressed in the pyloric and proximal region of the intestine of fish fed the microalgae-including diets. In conclusion, a blend of dried marine microalgae Tisochrysis lutea and Tetraselmis suecica as alternative ingredients to dietary fish meal did not hamper gut digestive-absorptive functions of E. sea bass. Moreover, it resulted in enhanced non-specific immune response, suggesting an effective role as an immunostimulant ingredien

An overview on dietary polyphenols and their biopharmaceutical classification system (Bcs)

Polyphenols are natural organic compounds produced by plants, acting as antioxidants by reacting with ROS. These compounds are widely consumed in daily diet and many studies report several benefits to human health thanks to their bioavailability in humans. However, the digestion process of phenolic compounds is still not completely clear. Moreover, bioavailability is dependent on the metabolic phase of these compounds. The LogP value can be managed as a simplified measure of the lipophilicity of a substance ingested within the human body, which affects resultant absorption. The biopharmaceutical classification system (BCS), a method used to classify drugs intended for gastrointestinal absorption, correlates the solubility and permeability of the drug with both the rate and extent of oral absorption. BCS may be helpful to measure the bioactive constituents of foods, such as polyphenols, in order to understand their nutraceutical potential. There are many literature studies that focus on permeability, absorption, and bioavailability of polyphenols and their resultant metabolic byproducts, but there is still confusion about their respective LogP values and BCS classifi-cation. This review will provide an overview of the information regarding 10 dietarypolyphenols (ferulic acid, chlorogenic acid, rutin, quercetin, apigenin, cirsimaritin, daidzein, resveratrol, ellagic acid, and curcumin) and their association with the BCS classification