Scenario analysis of the long-term impact on energy demand and emissions of B10 use as a clean transport fuel

Sustainable energy sources are continually advocated as the globe strives to transition from non-renewable forms. Energy security risks associated with the gradual depletion of petroleum resources and the related climate change effects require remedies. Nations have enacted laws stipulating biofuel blending mandates to reverse these adverse effects. Using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software, this study assessed the potential long-term impact on energy demand and CO2 emissions from implementing B10 (10% biodiesel and 90% conventional diesel blend) in Uganda’s petroleum sub-sector was assessed. Four scenarios were analysed from 2019 to 2050: baseline (100% fossil diesel), B10, B20 (20% biodiesel and 80% conventional diesel blend), and electric-powered transport, were analysed for 2019 to 2050. The analysis revealed that replacing fossil diesel with B10 reduces fossil-derived energy demand by 3.52% and projects an 8.38% reduction in CO2 emissions compared to the baseline scenario. The B20 and electric vehicle scenarios offer an even greater reduction. Specifically, the B20 scenario shows an 8.46% decrease, and the electric scenario shows a 9.98% decrease in fossil-derived energy demand. These reductions are attributed to the lower proportion of fossil fuels in biodiesel blends and the higher energy efficiency of electric vehicles. B10 use as a substitute fuel for diesel-powered vehicles is expected to mitigate transport sector emissions in Uganda with minimal impact on final energy demand. B20 and electrification scenarios with lower final energy demand and higher environmental impact reductions are more advantageous relative to the B10 and baseline scenarios. Future analyses should establish the optimal renewable fuel and vehicular technologies mix for a net zero scenario by 2050 for Uganda’s transport sector

Adaptive investment with land tenure and weather risk: Behavioral evidence from Tanzania

Two important risks faced by many smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa are erratic weather patterns and insecure land tenure. It is likely these risks will increasingly interact as projections of more erratic weather make small-scale farming more difficult and demand for rural land grows. This paper asks how farmers in Western Tanzania view these compound risks and the influence this has on levels of investment in adaptive agricultural technologies and the demand for land certification in a lab-in-the-field setting. Presenting novel data from a series of framed decision tasks linked to a household survey, this paper explores the relationship between individual risk preferences, adaptive investment and the demand for land certification from a group of 645 rural households in Kigoma, Tanzania. While adaptive investment increases with weather related risk, we find it responds negatively to land tenure risk. Individual risk preferences and past experiences of land disputes play significant roles in adaptive investment. Demand for land certification is high, investment increases significantly after certification, especially for risk-averse individuals

Life cycle assessment of biodiesel production from selected second-generation feedstocks

Biodiesel has the potential to substitute conventional diesel and reduce global transport-related greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the environmental impacts of biodiesel production from three East African second-generation feedstocks: Castor (Ricinus Communis), Croton Megalocarpus, and Jatropha, were assessed in comparison with petroleum-diesel. Inventory data analyzed was obtained from primary and secondary sources in Uganda and existing literature. Life Cycle Assessment methodology was applied in accordance with ISO 14040. Reductions in global warming and human toxicity potentials of up to 7% for B10 biodiesel blends relative to imported petroleum diesel were obtained. Similar reductions were obtained for the other assessed mid-point impact categories. Though relatively very low in absolute terms, this reduction rate is in sync with the target annual reductions of 7.6% and 2.7% required to meet the Paris Agreement temperature targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C respectively. Transesterification accounted for about 70% of the biodiesel production carbon footprints. Sensitivity analysis revealed that feedstock seed yield per ha is a key determinant of biodiesel's life cycle environmental performance. This study established that B10 from second-generation feedstocks is environmentally more competitive than petroleum-diesel from a life cycle perspective

A framework for selecting and designing policies to reduce marine plastic pollution in developing countries

The polluting of marine ecosystems with plastics is both a global and a local problem with potentially severe consequences for wildlife, economic activity, and human health. It is a problem that originates in countries’ inability to adequately manage the growing flow of waste. We use an impact pathway framework to trace the flow of plastics through the socio-ecological system and identify the role of specific policy instruments in achieving behavioral changes to reduce marine plastic waste. We produce a toolbox for finding a policy that is suitable for different countries. We use the impact pathway and toolbox to make country-specific recommendations that reflect the reality in each of the selected countries.</p