Schlechte Evaluierung rentiert sich kaum: Lehren aus dem Bereich der finanziellen Bildung

Die Verbesserung finanzieller Bildung ist inzwischen weltweit ein etabliertes Ziel der Wirtschaftspolitik, das über vielfältige Initiativen erreicht werden soll. Es verfügen aber nur wenige Wirkungsevaluierungen über den wissenschaftlich wünschenswerten Stand, um die Leistungen dieser Initiativen sicher bewerten zu können. Dieser Bericht erläutert die verschiedenen praktizierten Formen der Evaluierung und zeigt, dass 'schlechte' Evaluierung, zum Beispiel in Form von bloßen Vorher-Nachher-Vergleichen, zu verzerrten Bewertungen führt und typischerweise das Ergebnis beschönigt. Diese Schwächen bedeuten, dass die Träger finanzieller Bildungsmaßnahmen und die wirtschaftspolitisch Verantwortlichen die Wirkung ihrer Aktion eventuell überschätzen und die wahren Probleme nicht gut erkennen. Von methodisch schlechten Evaluierungen sollte abgesehen werden, um stattdessen fachgerechte Evaluierungsmethoden zu definieren und einzusetzen

1+3 Covariant Cosmic Microwave Background anisotropies II: The almost - Friedmann Lemaitre model

This is the second of a series of papers extending the 1+3 covariant and gauge invariant treatment of kinetic theory to an examination of Cosmic Microwave Background temperature anisotropies arising from inhomogeneities in the early universe. The first paper dealt with algebraic issues. Here we derive the mode form of the integrated Boltzmann equations, first, giving a covariant version of the standard derivation using the mode recursion relations, second, demonstrating the link to the multipole divergence equations and finally various analytic ways of solving the resulting equations are discussed. A general integral form of solution is obtained for the equations with Thomson scattering. The covariant Friedmann-Lemaitre multipole form of the transport equations are found using the covariant and gauge-invariant generalization of the Peebles and Yu expansion in Thompson scattering time. The dispersion relations and damping scale are then obtained from the covariant approach. The equations are integrated to give the covariant and gauge-invariant equivalent of the canonical scalar sourced anisotropies. We carry out a simple treatment of the matter dominated free-streaming projection, slow decoupling, and tight-coupling cases, with the aim both giving a unified transparent derivation of this range of results and clarifying the connection between the more usual approaches (for example that of Hu and Sugiyama) and the treatment for scalar perturbations (for example the treatment of Challinor and Lasenby).Comment: To appear in Annals of Physic

The Pan-STARRS Moving Object Processing System

We describe the Pan-STARRS Moving Object Processing System (MOPS), a modern software package that produces automatic asteroid discoveries and identifications from catalogs of transient detections from next-generation astronomical survey telescopes. MOPS achieves > 99.5% efficiency in producing orbits from a synthetic but realistic population of asteroids whose measurements were simulated for a Pan-STARRS4-class telescope. Additionally, using a non-physical grid population, we demonstrate that MOPS can detect populations of currently unknown objects such as interstellar asteroids. MOPS has been adapted successfully to the prototype Pan-STARRS1 telescope despite differences in expected false detection rates, fill-factor loss and relatively sparse observing cadence compared to a hypothetical Pan-STARRS4 telescope and survey. MOPS remains >99.5% efficient at detecting objects on a single night but drops to 80% efficiency at producing orbits for objects detected on multiple nights. This loss is primarily due to configurable MOPS processing limits that are not yet tuned for the Pan-STARRS1 mission. The core MOPS software package is the product of more than 15 person-years of software development and incorporates countless additional years of effort in third-party software to perform lower-level functions such as spatial searching or orbit determination. We describe the high-level design of MOPS and essential subcomponents, the suitability of MOPS for other survey programs, and suggest a road map for future MOPS development.Comment: 57 Pages, 26 Figures, 13 Table

Does Financial Education Impact Financial Literacy and Financial Behavior, and if so, When?

In a meta-analysis of 126 impact evaluation studies, we find that financial education significantly impacts financial behavior and, to an even larger extent, financial literacy. These results also hold for the subsample of randomized experiments (RCTs). However, intervention impacts are highly heterogeneous: Financial education is less effective for low-income clients as well as in low and lower-middle income economies. Specific behaviors, such as the handling of debt, are more difficult to influence and mandatory financial education tentatively appears to be less effective. Thus, intervention success depends crucially on increasing education intensity and offering financial education at a 'teachable moment'

Weak lensing from space: first cosmological constraints from three-point shear statistics

We use weak lensing data from the Hubble Space Telescope COSMOS survey to measure the second- and third-moments of the cosmic shear field, estimated from about 450,000 galaxies with average redshift ~ 1.3. We measure two- and three-point shear statistics using a tree-code, dividing the signal in E, B and mixed components. We present a detection of the third-order moment of the aperture mass statistic and verify that the measurement is robust against systematic errors caused by point spread function (PSF) residuals and by the intrinsic alignments between galaxies. The amplitude of the measured three-point cosmic shear signal is in very good agreement with the predictions for a WMAP7 best-fit model, whereas the amplitudes of potential systematics are consistent with zero. We make use of three sets of large Lambda CDM simulations to test the accuracy of the cosmological predictions and to estimate the influence of the cosmology-dependent covariance. We perform a likelihood analysis using the measurement and find that the Omega_m-sigma_8 degeneracy direction is well fitted by the relation: sigma_8 (Omega_m/0.30)^(0.49)=0.78+0.11/-0.26. We present the first measurement of a more generalised three-point shear statistic and find a very good agreement with the WMAP7 best-fit cosmology. The cosmological interpretation of this measurement gives sigma_8 (Omega_m/0.30)^(0.46)=0.69 +0.08/-0.14. Furthermore, the combined likelihood analysis of this measurement with the measurement of the second order moment of the aperture mass improves the accuracy of the cosmological constraints, showing the high potential of this combination of measurements to infer cosmological constraints.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures. MNRAS submitte

Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia

Large-scale fires occur frequently across Indonesia, particularly in the southern region of Kalimantan and eastern Sumatra. They have considerable impacts on carbon emissions, haze production, biodiversity, health, and economic activities. In this study, we demonstrate that severe fire and haze events in Indonesia can generally be predicted months in advance using predictions of seasonal rainfall from the ECMWF System 4 coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Based on analyses of long, up-to-date series observations on burnt area, rainfall, and tree cover, we demonstrate that fire activity is negatively correlated with rainfall and is positively associated with deforestation in Indonesia. There is a contrast between the southern region of Kalimantan (high fire activity, high tree cover loss, and strong non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire) and the central region of Kalimantan (low fire activity, low tree cover loss, and weak, non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire). The ECMWF seasonal forecast provides skilled forecasts of burnt and fire-affected area with several months lead time explaining at least 70% of the variance between rainfall and burnt and fire-affected area. Results are strongly influenced by El Niño years which show a consistent positive bias. Overall, our findings point to a high potential for using a more physical-based method for predicting fires with several months lead time in the tropics rather than one based onindexes only. We argue that seasonal precipitation forecasts should be central to Indonesia’s evolving fire management policy.JRC.H.3 - Forest Resources and Climat

Transnationaler Einfluss auf Urbanen Wandel. Moderne Projekte in Vinh, Vietnam

Following an “agency-oriented Urban Theory” as advanced by Smith (2001), this study takes the urban landscape of Vinh City in Central Vietnam as a starting point into an investigation of multiple visions of modernity (Eisenstadt, 2000) put forward by social actors, as well as into urban change resulting from the implementation of such visions. Focusing on the period from 1973 to 2011, it traces the application of three different visions for urban development in Vinh: The Socialist City, The Modern and Civilized City, and the Participatory City. Projects aiming at implementing these visions in Vinh that are presented in this study have one thing in common: they are informed by a specific view of what a city is and what it should be, and their implementation aims at changing the city in the desired direction. This goal involves not only physical change of the city, but also institutional change in the urban society. To grasp the interplay between visions of a modern city, their application through concrete projects, and the results of these implementations, the study operates with two specific terms: modern projects, and urban change. After introducing Vinh and its history, the thesis presents the period of the vision of The Socialist City and its application in Vinh through cooperation between Vietnam and the German Democratic Republic in the 1970s. It then moves on to contemporary period starting in the 1990s, during which varying and conflicting modern projects for the city were put forward by different social actors cooperating in joint projects on urban development: the Modern and Civilized City and the Participatory City. While the modes of cooperation differed between the two periods, the study concludes with the argument that the impact of these transnational projects has led to path-dependent, as well as ambivalent, urban change in Vinh.Orientiert an einer "agency-oriented Urban Theory" (Smith 2001) nimmt diese Studie die gebaute städtische Landschaft der Stadt Vinh in Zentralvietnam als Ausgangspunkt für die Untersuchung multipler Visionen von Moderne (Eisenstadt 2000) sowie des aus der Umsetzung dieser Visionen resultierenden urbanen Wandels. Im Fokus der Arbeit steht der Zeitraum von 1973 bis 2011, in dem drei verschiedene Visionen für die Entwicklung der Stadt Vinh propagiert wurden: Die Sozialistische Stadt, Die Moderne und Zivilisierte Stadt sowie die Partizipative Stadt. Projekte die auf die Umsetzung dieser Visionen in Vinh abzielten hatten eines gemeinsam: sie bauten auf bestimmten Vorstellungen davon, was eine Stadt ist, und was sie sein sollte, auf. Zudem zielten sie auf einen Wandel hin in die gewünschte Richtung ab. Dies zielte nicht nur auf räumliche Änderungen ab, sondern auch auf institutionellen Wandel der städtischen Gesellschaft. Um das Zusammenspiel von Visionen der Modernen Stadt, ihrer Umsetzung in konkrete Projekten, sowie die Resultate dieser Umsetzungen erfassen zu können arbeitet die Studie mit zwei spezifischen Begriffen: moderne Projekte und Urbaner Wandel. Nachdem die Stadt Vinh und ihre Geschichte vorgestellt werden, präsentiert die Arbeit die Periode in der die Sozialistische Stadt als Leitbild für den Aufbau der Stadt Vinh diente und durch Kooperation zwischen Vietnam und der Deutschen Demokratischen Republik umgesetzt wurde. Anschließen befasst sie sich mit der in den 1990er Jahren begonnenen, und gegenwärtig andauernden, Phase in der verschiedene Akteure in gemeinsamen Projekte konkurrierende Vorstellungen der Stadtentwicklung propagierten: die Moderne und Zivilisierte Stadt sowie die Partizipative Stadt. Als Ergebnis argumentiert die Arbeit das zwar die Formen der Zusammenarbeit in beiden Phasen unterschiedliche waren, dass diese transnationalen Projekte jedoch zu pfadabhängigem sowie ambivalentem urbanen Wandel in Vinh geführt haben

Essays on financial education and behavioral household finance

Over the course of the past twenty years, globalization and the integration of financial systems have led to an increased complexity in financial markets. Living in such a globalized market-economy requires individuals and households to be equipped with a certain set of knowledge and skills to make well-informed and thoughtful decisions. In developing economies, the integration of financial systems has led to financial inclusion of populations that have little experience with the complexity of formal financial products. Many fear that these developments may outpace the capacity of individuals and households to make informed financial choices. Unfortunately, evidence from an abundance of survey-data seems to suggest that individuals may indeed lack the financial literacy necessary to deal with these complexities. This dissertation contributes to this literature and consists of four papers on financial education and household finance. The first two papers are included in part I "Causal effects of financial education". This part uses a quantitative meta-analysis and a randomized field experiment to estimate the causal effects of financial education programs on financial literacy and individual financial behavior. The second part (II "Research on economic and social science education") seeks to contribute to the discourse in the field of research on economic and social science education: The two papers examine determinants teacher-professionalism and qualitative conceptions of students in schools respectively