Validation and application of an ensemble Kalman filter in the Selat Pauh of Singapore

The effectiveness of an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is assessed in the Selat Pauh of Singapore using observing system simulation experiment. Perfect model experiments are first considered. The perfect model experiments examine the EnKF in reducing the initial perturbations with no further errors than those in the initial conditions. Current velocity at 15 observational sites from the true ocean is assimilated every hour into the false ocean. While EnKF reduces the initial velocity error during the first few hours, it fails after one tidal cycle (approximately 12 h) due to the rapid convergence of the ensemble members. Successively, errors are introduced in the surface wind forcing. A random perturbation ε [epsilon] is applied independently to each ensemble member to maintain the ensemble spread. The assimilation results showed that the success of EnKF depends critically on the presence of ε [epsilon], yet it is not sensitive to the magnitude of ε [epsilon], at least in the range of weak to moderate perturbations. Although all experiments were made with EnKF only, the results could be applicable in general to all other ensemble-based data assimilation methods.United States. Office of Naval ResearchSingapore. National Research FoundationSingapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology CenterSingapore-MIT Alliance. Center for Environmental Sensing and Monitorin

The Prevalence and Psychopathological Correlates of Sibling Bullying in Children with and without Autism Spectrum Disorder

Using data from a prospective population based study, the prevalence and psychopathological correlates of sibling bullying in children with and without autism spectrum disorder (ASD) were estimated. There were 475 children with ASD and 13,702 children without ASD aged 11 years. Children with ASD were more likely to be bullied by their siblings compared to those without ASD. They were also more likely than those without ASD to both bully and be bullied by their siblings, which was associated with lower prosocial skills as well as more internalizing and externalizing problems compared to those not involved in any sibling bullying. Interventions to improve social and emotional outcomes in children with ASD should focus on both the affected and the unaffected sibling

Gravitational collapse with tachyon field and barotropic fluid

A particular class of space-time, with a tachyon field, \phi, and a barotropic fluid constituting the matter content, is considered herein as a model for gravitational collapse. For simplicity, the tachyon potential is assumed to be of inverse square form i.e., V(\phi) \sim \phi^{-2}. Our purpose, by making use of the specific kinematical features of the tachyon, which are rather different from a standard scalar field, is to establish the several types of asymptotic behavior that our matter content induces. Employing a dynamical system analysis, complemented by a thorough numerical study, we find classical solutions corresponding to a naked singularity or a black hole formation. In particular, there is a subset where the fluid and tachyon participate in an interesting tracking behaviour, depending sensitively on the initial conditions for the energy densities of the tachyon field and barotropic fluid. Two other classes of solutions are present, corresponding respectively, to either a tachyon or a barotropic fluid regime. Which of these emerges as dominant, will depend on the choice of the barotropic parameter, \gamma. Furthermore, these collapsing scenarios both have as final state the formation of a black hole.Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures. v3: minor changes. Final version to appear in GR

Rowan County - Kentucky in the World War, 1917-1919

Publication included the names and addresses of men from Rowan County inducted into military service by the local draft board during the First World War

Ensemble clustering in deterministic ensemble Kalman filters

Ensemble clustering (EC) can arise in data assimilation with ensemble square root filters (EnSRFs) using non-linear models: an M-member ensemble splits into a single outlier and a cluster of M−1 members. The stochastic Ensemble Kalman Filter does not present this problem. Modifications to the EnSRFs by a periodic resampling of the ensemble through random rotations have been proposed to address it. We introduce a metric to quantify the presence of EC and present evidence to dispel the notion that EC leads to filter failure. Starting from a univariate model, we show that EC is not a permanent but transient phenomenon; it occurs intermittently in non-linear models. We perform a series of data assimilation experiments using a standard EnSRF and a modified EnSRF by a resampling though random rotations. The modified EnSRF thus alleviates issues associated with EC at the cost of traceability of individual ensemble trajectories and cannot use some of algorithms that enhance performance of standard EnSRF. In the non-linear regimes of low-dimensional models, the analysis root mean square error of the standard EnSRF slowly grows with ensemble size if the size is larger than the dimension of the model state. However, we do not observe this problem in a more complex model that uses an ensemble size much smaller than the dimension of the model state, along with inflation and localisation. Overall, we find that transient EC does not handicap the performance of the standard EnSRF

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Phase-2 Toward Developing Intra-Seasonal Prediction

The recent US National Academies report "Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability" was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive capability. Indeed, this effort is required to meet the specific tailored regional prediction and decision support needs of a large community of climate information users. The multi-model ensemble approach has proven extremely effective at quantifying prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in model formulation, and has proven to produce better prediction quality (on average) then any single model ensemble. This multi-model approach is the basis for several international collaborative prediction research efforts, an operational European system and there are numerous examples of how this multi-model ensemble approach yields superior forecasts compared to any single model. Based on two NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) NMME workshops (February 18, and April 8, 2011) a collaborative and coordinated implementation strategy for a NMME prediction system has been developed and is currently delivering real-time seasonal-to-interannual predictions on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operational schedule. The hindcast and real-time prediction data is readily available (e.g., http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/) and in graphical format from CPC (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51yf/NMME/index.html). Moreover, the NMME forecast are already currently being used as guidance for operational forecasters. This paper describes the new NMME effort, presents an overview of the multi-model forecast quality, and the complementary skill associated with individual models

Enhancing paramedics procedural skills using a cadaveric model.

BACKGROUND: Paramedic education has evolved in recent times from vocational post-employment to tertiary pre-employment supplemented by clinical placement. Simulation is advocated as a means of transferring learned skills to clinical practice. Sole reliance of simulation learning using mannequin-based models may not be sufficient to prepare students for variance in human anatomy. In 2012, we trialled the use of fresh frozen human cadavers to supplement undergraduate paramedic procedural skill training. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether cadaveric training is an effective adjunct to mannequin simulation and clinical placement. METHODS: A multi-method approach was adopted. The first step involved a Delphi methodology to formulate and validate the evaluation instrument. The instrument comprised of knowledge-based MCQs, Likert for self-evaluation of procedural skills and behaviours, and open answer. The second step involved a pre-post evaluation of the 2013 cadaveric training. RESULTS: One hundred and fourteen students attended the workshop and 96 evaluations were included in the analysis, representing a return rate of 84%. There was statistically significant improved anatomical knowledge after the workshop. Students' self-rated confidence in performing procedural skills on real patients improved significantly after the workshop: inserting laryngeal mask (MD 0.667), oropharyngeal (MD 0.198) and nasopharyngeal (MD 0.600) airways, performing Bag-Valve-Mask (MD 0.379), double (MD 0.344) and triple (MD 0.326,) airway manoeuvre, doing 12-lead electrocardiography (MD 0.729), using laryngoscope (MD 0.726), using Magill® forceps to remove foreign body (MD 0.632), attempting thoracocentesis (MD 1.240), and putting on a traction splint (MD 0.865). The students commented that the workshop provided context to their theoretical knowledge and that they gained an appreciation of the differences in normal tissue variation. Following engagement in/ completion of the workshop, students were more aware of their own clinical and non-clinical competencies. CONCLUSIONS: The paramedic profession has evolved beyond patient transport with minimal intervention to providing comprehensive both emergency and non-emergency medical care. With limited availability of clinical placements for undergraduate paramedic training, there is an increasing demand on universities to provide suitable alternatives. Our findings suggested that cadaveric training using fresh frozen cadavers provides an effective adjunct to simulated learning and clinical placements

Shoot the Dragons Week, Round 1: OdonataMAP grows by 1,200 records

The first "Shoot the Dragons Week" was held from Saturday 26 November to Sunday 4 December. 1,200 records were submitted by 61 participants. The database increased from 25,120 records at the beginning of Shoot the Dragons Week to 26,320 records at the end, an increase in the size of the database of 4.8%. 1,158 of the 1,200 submissions had confirmed identifications by 27 December. 1,101 records were identified to species level, and there were representatives of 116 species. There were more than 50 records for three species: Red-veined Dropwing Trithemis arteriosa had 103 records, Broad Scarlet Croceothemis erythraea had 68 and the Tropical Bluetail Ischnura senegalensis had 55. The report highlights some of the interesting records, and discusses the impact of the drought on the first Shoot the Dragons Week

Using a virtual environment to assess cognition in the elderly

YesEarly diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is essential if treatments are to be administered at an earlier point in time before neurons degenerate to a stage beyond repair. In order for early detection to occur tools used to detect the disorder must be sensitive to the earliest of cognitive impairments. Virtual reality (VR) technology offers opportunities to provide products which attempt to mimic daily life situations, as much as is possible, within the computational environment. This may be useful for the detection of cognitive difficulties. We develop a virtual simulation designed to assess visuospatial memory in order to investigate cognitive function in a group of healthy elderly participants and those with a mild cognitive impairment. Participants were required to guide themselves along a virtual path to reach a virtual destination which they were required to remember. The preliminary results indicate that this virtual simulation has the potential to be used for detection of early AD since significant correlations of scores on the virtual environment with existing neuropsychological tests were found. Furthermore, the test discriminated between healthy elderly participants and those with a mild cognitive impairment (MCI)