Group sequential designs for negative binomial outcomes

Count data and recurrent events in clinical trials, such as the number of lesions in magnetic resonance imaging in multiple sclerosis, the number of relapses in multiple sclerosis, the number of hospitalizations in heart failure, and the number of exacerbations in asthma or in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are often modeled by negative binomial distributions. In this manuscript we study planning and analyzing clinical trials with group sequential designs for negative binomial outcomes. We propose a group sequential testing procedure for negative binomial outcomes based on Wald statistics using maximum likelihood estimators. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed group sequential tests statistics are derived. The finite sample size properties of the proposed group sequential test for negative binomial outcomes and the methods for planning the respective clinical trials are assessed in a simulation study. The simulation scenarios are motivated by clinical trials in chronic heart failure and relapsing multiple sclerosis, which cover a wide range of practically relevant settings. Our research assures that the asymptotic normal theory of group sequential designs can be applied to negative binomial outcomes when the hypotheses are tested using Wald statistics and maximum likelihood estimators. We also propose two methods, one based on Student's t-distribution and one based on resampling, to improve type I error rate control in small samples. The statistical methods studied in this manuscript are implemented in the R package \textit{gscounts}, which is available for download on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN)

A variational approach to path estimation and parameter inference of hidden diffusion processes

We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal process given the full set of observations. This, in particular, leads to systematic approximations of the smoothing densities of the signal process. The paper then demonstrates how an efficient inference scheme, based on this variational approach to the approximation of the hidden states, can be designed to estimate the unknown parameters of stochastic differential equations. Two examples at the end illustrate the efficacy and the accuracy of the presented method.Comment: 37 pages, 2 figures, revise

The impact of ICT usage, workplace organisation and human capital on the provision of apprenticeship training. a firm-level analysis based on Swiss panel data

Firstly, we investigated the determinants of a) the propensity of Swiss firms to provide apprenticeship training, and b) the intensity of training (measured by the employment share of apprentices). We primarily were interested in the relevance as explanatory factors of the three constituent elements of the new firm paradigm that emerged in the course of the last twenty years: intensive usage of ICT; redesign of workplace organisation; shift from lower to higher skills. We found that the skill composition of the workforce (including further training), ICT intensity and, to a lesser extent, workplace organisation are important drivers of apprenticeshipbased skill formation, with stronger effects on training propensity than on training intensity. Secondly, we analysed the relationship between apprenticeship training and firm performance. It turned out that productivity and apprenticeships (training propensity or intensity) are negatively correlated. The study is relevant for training policy in advanced economies where the new firm paradigm plays a large and growing role

Controller evaluations of the descent advisor automation aid

An automation aid to assist air traffic controllers in efficiently spacing traffic and meeting arrival times at a fix has been developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The automation aid, referred to as the descent advisor (DA), is based on accurate models of aircraft performance and weather conditions. The DA generates suggested clearances, including both top-of-descent point and speed profile data, for one or more aircraft in order to achieve specific time or distance separation objectives. The DA algorithm is interfaced with a mouse-based, menu-driven controller display that allows the air traffic controller to interactively use its accurate predictive capability to resolve conflicts and issue advisories to arrival aircraft. This paper focuses on operational issues concerning the utilization of the DA, specifically, how the DA can be used for prediction, intrail spacing, and metering. In order to evaluate the DA, a real time simulation was conducted using both current and retired controller subjects. Controllers operated in teams of two, as they do in the present environment; issues of training and team interaction will be discussed. Evaluations by controllers indicated considerable enthusiasm for the DA aid, and provided specific recommendations for using the tool effectively

Probing Quantum Memory Effects with High Resolution

Trapped atomic ions enable a precise quantification of the flow of information between internal and external degrees of freedom by employing a non-Markovianity measure [H.-P. Breuer et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 210401 (2009)]. We reveal that the nature of projective measurements in quantum mechanics leads to a fundamental, nontrivial bias in this measure. We observe and study the functional dependence of this bias to permit a demonstration of applications of local quantum probing. An extension of our approach can act as a versatile reference, relevant for understanding complex systems.Comment: 10 pages (incl. Supplemental Material), 8 figure

First experiences with the ATLAS Pixel Detector Control System at the Combined Test Beam 2004

Detector control systems (DCS) include the read out, control and supervision of hardware devices as well as the monitoring of external systems like cooling system and the processing of control data. The implementation of such a system in the final experiment has also to provide the communication with the trigger and data acquisition system (TDAQ). In addition, conditions data which describe the status of the pixel detector modules and their environment must be logged and stored in a common LHC wide database system. At the combined test beam all ATLAS subdetectors were operated together for the first time over a longer period. To ensure the functionality of the pixel detector a control system was set up. We describe the architecture chosen for the pixel detector control system, the interfaces to hardware devices, the interfaces to the users and the performance of our system. The embedding of the DCS in the common infrastructure of the combined test beam and also its communication with surrounding systems will be discussed in some detail.Comment: 6 pages, 9 figures, Pixel 2005 proceedings preprin

Validation Studies of the ATLAS Pixel Detector Control System

The ATLAS pixel detector consists of 1744 identical silicon pixel modules arranged in three barrel layers providing coverage for the central region, and three disk layers on either side of the primary interaction point providing coverage of the forward regions. Once deployed into the experiment, the detector will employ optical data transfer, with the requisite powering being provided by a complex system of commercial and custom-made power supplies. However, during normal performance and production tests in the laboratory, only single modules are operated and electrical readout is used. In addition, standard laboratory power supplies are used. In contrast to these normal tests, the data discussed here was obtained from a multi-module assembly which was powered and read out using production items: the optical data path, the final design power supply system using close to final services, and the Detector Control System (DCS). To demonstrate the functionality of the pixel detector system a stepwise transition was made from the normal laboratory readout and power supply systems to the ones foreseen for the experiment, with validation of the data obtained at each transition.Comment: 8 pages, 8 figures, proceedings for the Pixel2005 worksho