Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores

International audienceThis paper describes a first comprehensive evaluation of the quality of the ten days ocean forecasts produced by the Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System (MFS). Once a week ten days forecasts are produced. The forecast starts on Tuesday at noon and the prediction is released on Wednesday morning with less then 24 hr delay. In this work we have considered 22 ten days forecasts produced from the 16 August 2005 to the 10 January 2006. All the statistical scores have been done for the Mediterranean basin and for 13 regions in which the Mediterranean sea has been subdivided. The forecast evaluation is given here in terms of root mean square (rms) values. The main skill score is computed as the root mean square of the difference between forecast and analysis (FA) and forecast and persistence (FP), where the persistence is defined as the average of the day of the analysis corresponding to the first day of the forecast. A second skill score (SSP) is defined as the ratio between rms of FA and FP, giving the percentage of accuracy of the forecast with respect to the persistence (Murphy 1993). The rms of FA is always better than FP and the FP rms error is double than the rms of FA. It is found that in the surface layers the error growth is controlled mainly by the atmospheric forcing inaccuracies while at depth the forecast errors could be due to adjustments of the data assimilation scheme to the data insertion procedure. The predictability limit for our ocean forecast seems to be 5?6 days connected to atmospheric forcing inaccuracies and to the data availability for assimilation

A high resolution free surface model of the Mediterranean Sea

International audienceThis study describes a new model implementation for the Mediterranean Sea which has the presently highest vertical resolution over the Mediterranean basin. The resolution is of 1/16°×1/16° in horizontal and 71 unevenly spaced vertical levels. This model has been developed in the frame of the EU-MFSTEP project and it is the operational forecast model presently used at the basin scale. For the first time in the Mediterranean, the model considers an implicit free surface and this characteristics enhances the model capability to simulate the sea surface height variability. In this study we show the calibration/validation experiments done before and after the model has been used for forecasting. The first experiment consist of six years of a simulation forced by a perpetual year forcing and the other experiment is a simulation from January 1997 to December 2004, forcing the model with 6 h atmospheric forcing fields from ECMWF. For the first time the model Sea Level Anomaly is compared with SLA and with ARGO data to provide evidence of the quality of the simulation. The results show that this model is capable to reproduce most of the variability of the general circulation in the Mediterranean Sea even if some basic model inadequacies stand out and should be corrected in the near future

Particle fluxes in the deep Eastern Mediterranean basins: the role of ocean vertical velocities

This paper analyzes the relationship between deep sedimentary fluxes and ocean current vertical velocities in an offshore area of the Ionian Sea, the deepest basin of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Sediment trap data are collected at 500 m and 2800 m depth in two successive moorings covering the period September 1999–May 2001. A tight coupling is observed between the upper and deep traps and the estimated particle sinking rates are more than 200 m day−1. The current vertical velocity field is computed from a 1/16°×1/16° Ocean General Circulation Model simulation and from the wind stress curl. Current vertical velocities are larger and more variable than Ekman vertical velocities, yet the general patterns are alike. Current vertical velocities are generally smaller than 1 m day−1: we therefore exclude a direct effect of downward velocities in determining high sedimentation rates. However we find that upward velocities in the subsurface layers of the water column are positively correlated with deep particle fluxes. We thus hypothesize that upwelling would produce an increase in upper ocean nutrient levels – thus stimulating primary production and grazing – a few weeks before an enhanced vertical flux is found in the sediment traps. High particle sedimentation rates may be attained by means of rapidly sinking fecal pellets produced by gelatinous macro-zooplankton. Other sedimentation mechanisms, such as dust deposition, are also considered in explaining large pulses of deep particle fluxes. The fast sinking rates estimated in this study might be an evidence of the efficiency of the biological pump in sequestering organic carbon from the surface layers of the deep Eastern Mediterranean basins

Photodynamic treatment with phenothiazinium photosensitizers kills both ungerminated and germinated microconidia of the pathogenic fungi Fusarium oxysporum, Fusarium moniliforme and Fusarium solani.

The search for alternatives to control microorganisms is necessary both in clinical and agricultural areas. Antimicrobial photodynamic treatment (APDT) is a promising light-based approach that can be used to control both human and plant pathogenic fungi. In the present study, we evaluated the effects of photodynamic treatment with red light and four phenothiazinium photosensitizers (PS): methylene blue (MB), toluidine blue O (TBO), new methylene blue N (NMBN) and the phenothiazinium derivative S137 on ungerminated and germinated microconidia of Fusarium oxysporum, F. moniliforme, and F. solani. APDT with each PS killed efficiently both the quiescent ungerminated microconidia and metabolically active germinated microconidia of the three Fusarium species. Washing away the unbound PS from the microconidia (both ungerminated and germinated) before red light exposure reduced but did not prevent the effect of APDT. Subcelullar localization of PS in ungerminated and germinated microconidia and the effects of photodynamic treatment on cell membranes were also evaluated in the three Fusarium species. APDT with MB, TBO, NMBN or S137 increased the membrane permeability in microconidia and APDT with NMBN or S137 increased the lipids peroxidation in microconidia of the three Fusarium species. These findings expand the understanding of photodynamic inactivation of filamentous fungi with phenothiazinium PS