An Early Warning System for Asteroid Impact

Earth is bombarded by meteors, occasionally by one large enough to cause a significant explosion and possible loss of life. Although the odds of a deadly asteroid strike in the next century are low, the most likely impact is by a relatively small asteroid, and we suggest that the best mitigation strategy in the near term is simply to move people out of the way. We describe an "early warning" system that could provide a week's notice of most sizable asteroids or comets on track to hit the Earth. This system, dubbed "Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System" (ATLAS), comprises two observatories separated by about 100km that simultaneously scan the visible sky twice a night, and can be implemented immediately for relatively low cost. The sensitivity of ATLAS permits detection of 140m asteroids (100 Mton impact energy) three weeks before impact, and 50m asteroids a week before arrival. An ATLAS alarm, augmented by other observations, should result in a determination of impact location and time that is accurate to a few kilometers and a few seconds. In addition to detecting and warning of approaching asteroids, ATLAS will continuously monitor the changing universe around us: most of the variable stars in our galaxy, many micro-lensing events from stellar alignments, luminous stars and novae in nearby galaxies, thousands of supernovae, nearly a million quasars and active galactic nuclei, tens of millions of galaxies, and a billion stars. With two views per day ATLAS will make the variable universe as familiar to us as the sunrise and sunset.Comment: 33 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in PASP, Jan 201

Determining the Type, Redshift, and Phase of a Supernova Spectrum

We present an algorithm to identify the types of supernova spectra, and determine their redshift and phase. This algorithm, based on the correlation techniques of Tonry & Davis, is implemented in the SuperNova IDentification code (SNID). It is used by members of the ESSENCE project to determine whether a noisy spectrum of a high-redshift supernova is indeed of type Ia, as opposed to, e.g., type Ib/c. Furthermore, by comparing the correlation redshifts obtained using SNID with those determined from narrow lines in the supernova host galaxy spectrum, we show that accurate redshifts (with a typical error < 0.01) can be determined for SNe Ia for which a spectrum of the host galaxy is unavailable. Last, the phase of an input spectrum is determined with a typical accuracy of ~3 days.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures. To appear in "The Multicoloured Landscape of Compact Objects and their Explosive Progenitors: Theory vs Observations" (Cefalu, Sicily, June 2006). Eds. L. Burderi et al. (New York: AIP

Revised Supernova Rates from the IfA Deep Survey

The IfA Deep survey uncovered ~130 thermonuclear supernovae (TNSNe, i.e. Type Ia) candidates at redshifts from z=0.1 out to beyond z=1. The TNSN explosion rates derived from these data have been controversial, conflicting with evidence emerging from other surveys. This work revisits the IfA Deep survey to re-evaluate the photometric evidence. Applying the SOFT program to the light curves of all SN candidates, we derive new classification grades and redshift estimates. We find a volumetric rate for z~0.5 that is substantially smaller than the originally published values, bringing the revised IfA Deep rate into good agreement with other surveys. With our improved photometric analysis techniques, we are able to confidently extend the rate measurements to higher redshifts, and we find a steadily increasing TNSN rate, with no indication of a peak out to z=1.05.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. 12 pages, 3 figures. Table 2 to be available in full in ApJ online, or on request to author

Fuzzy Supernova Templates II: Parameter Estimation

Wide field surveys will soon be discovering Type Ia supernovae (SNe) at rates of several thousand per year. Spectroscopic follow-up can only scratch the surface for such enormous samples, so these extensive data sets will only be useful to the extent that they can be characterized by the survey photometry alone. In a companion paper (Rodney and Tonry, 2009) we introduced the SOFT method for analyzing SNe using direct comparison to template light curves, and demonstrated its application for photometric SN classification. In this work we extend the SOFT method to derive estimates of redshift and luminosity distance for Type Ia SNe, using light curves from the SDSS and SNLS surveys as a validation set. Redshifts determined by SOFT using light curves alone are consistent with spectroscopic redshifts, showing a root-mean-square scatter in the residuals of RMS_z=0.051. SOFT can also derive simultaneous redshift and distance estimates, yielding results that are consistent with the currently favored Lambda-CDM cosmological model. When SOFT is given spectroscopic information for SN classification and redshift priors, the RMS scatter in Hubble diagram residuals is 0.18 mags for the SDSS data and 0.28 mags for the SNLS objects. Without access to any spectroscopic information, and even without any redshift priors from host galaxy photometry, SOFT can still measure reliable redshifts and distances, with an increase in the Hubble residuals to 0.37 mags for the combined SDSS and SNLS data set. Using Monte Carlo simulations we predict that SOFT will be able to improve constraints on time-variable dark energy models by a factor of 2-3 with each new generation of large-scale SN surveys.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, accepted to ApJ; paper 1 is arXiv:0910.370

K-band versus I-band Surface Brightness Fluctuations as distance indicators

We evaluate the method of optical and infrared Surface Brightness Fluctuations (SBF) as a distance indicator and its application on 8-m class telescopes, such as the Very Large Telescope (VLT). The novelty of our approach resides in the development of Monte Carlo simulations of SBF observations incorporating realistic elliptical galaxy stellar population models, the effects induced by globular clusters and background galaxies, instrumental noise, sky background and PSF blurring. We discuss, for each band and in different observational conditions, the errors on distance measurements arising from stellar population effects, data treatment and observational constraints. With 8-m class telescopes, one can extend I-band SBF measurements out to 6000-10000 km/s. Integration times in the K-band are too expensive from the ground, due to the high infrared background for large-scale distance determination projects. Nevertheless ground-based K-band measurements are necessary to understand stellar population effects on the SBF calibration, and to prepare future space-based observations, where this band is more efficient.Comment: A&A, in press, 17 pages, 10 figure

The observed infall of galaxies towards the Virgo cluster

We examine the velocity field of galaxies around the Virgo cluster induced by its overdensity. A sample of 1792 galaxies with distances from the Tip of the Red Giant Branch, the Cepheid luminosity, the SNIa luminosity, the surface brightness fluctuation method, and the Tully-Fisher relation has been used to study the velocity-distance relation in the Virgocentric coordinates. Attention was paid to some observational biases affected the Hubble flow around Virgo. We estimate the radius of the zero-velocity surface for the Virgo cluster to be within (5.0 - 7.5) Mpc corresponding to (17 - 26)^\circ at the mean cluster distance of 17.0 Mpc. In the case of spherical symmetry with cosmological parameter \Omega_m=0.24 and the age of the Universe T_0= 13.7 Gyr, it yields the total mass of the Virgo cluster to be within M_T=(2.7 - 8.9) * 10^{14} M_\sun in reasonable agreement with the existing virial mass estimates for the cluster.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in MNRA

On surface brightness fluctuations: probabilistic and statistical bases I: Stellar population and theoretical SBF

This work aims to provide a theoretical formulation of Surface Brightness Fluctuations (SBF) in the framework of probabilistic synthesis models, and to distinguish between the different distributions involved in the SBF definition. RESULTS: We propose three definitions of SBF: (i) stellar population SBF, which can be computed from synthesis models and provide an intrinsic metric of fit for stellar population studies; (ii) theoretical SBF, which include the stellar population SBF plus an additional term that takes into account the distribution of the number of stars per resolution element psi(N); theoretical SBF coincide with Tonry & Schneider (1998) definition in the very particular case that psi(N) is assumed to be a Poisson distribution. However, the Poisson contribution to theoretical SBF is around 0.1% of the contribution due to the stellar population SBF, so there is no justification to include any reference to Poisson statistics in the SBF definition; (iii) observational SBF, which are those obtained in observations that are distributed around the theoretical SBF. Finally, we show alternative ways to compute SBF and extend the application of stellar population SBF to defining a metric of fitting for standard stellar population studies. CONCLUSIONS: We demostrate that SBF are observational evidence of a probabilistic paradigm in population synthesis, where integrated luminosities have an intrinsic distributed nature, and they rule out the commonly assumed deterministic paradigm of stellar population modeling.Comment: A&A accepte

Potential of the Surface Brightness Fluctuations method to measure distances to dwarf elliptical galaxies in nearby clusters

The potential of the Surface Brightness Fluctuations (SBF) method to determine the membership of dwarf elliptical galaxies (dEs) in nearby galaxy clusters is investigated. Extensive simulations for SBF measurements on dEs in the I-band for various combinations of distance modulus, seeing and integration time are presented, based on average VLT FORS1 and FORS2 zero points. These show that for distances up to 20 Mpc (Fornax or Virgo cluster distance), reliable membership determination of dEs can be obtained down to very faint magnitudes -10<M_V<-12 mag (25 mag / arcsec^2) within integration times of the order of 1 hour and with good seeing. Comparing the limiting magnitudes of the method for the different simulated observing conditions we derive some simple rules to calculate integration time and seeing needed to reach a determined limiting magnitude at a given distance modulus for observing conditions different to the ones adopted in the simulations. Our simulations show a small offset of the order of 0.15 mag towards measuring too faint SBF. It is shown that this is due to loss of fluctuation signal when recovering pixel-to-pixel fluctuations from a seeing convolved image. To check whether our simulations represent well the behaviour of real data, SBF measurements for a real and simulated sample of bright Centaurus Cluster dEs are presented. They show that our simulations are in good agreement with the achievable S/N of SBF measurements on real galaxies.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, accepted by A&A, replaced by version with non-abridged bottom page limi