Unprecedented springtime retreat of Antarctic sea ice in 2016

During austral spring 2016 Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) decreased at a record rate of 75 x 10(3) km(2) d(-1), which was 46% faster than the mean rate and 18% faster than in any previous spring season during the satellite era. The decrease of sea ice area was also exceptional and 28% greater than the mean. Anomalous negative retreat occurred in all sectors of the Antarctic but was greatest in the Weddell and Ross Seas. Record negative SIE anomalies for the day of year were recorded from 3 November 2016 to 9 April 2017. Rapid ice retreat in the Weddell Sea took place in strong northerly flow after an early maximum ice extent in late August. Rapid ice retreat occurred in November in the Ross Sea when surface pressure was at a record high level, with the Southern Annular Mode at its most negative for that month since 1968

Combined Behavioral and Engineering Approach to Preventing Highway Fatalities

Traditional, single-discipline highway safety approaches can be augmented through multidisciplinary approaches that consider both engineering and behavioral interventions (e.g., education, enforcement, public outreach campaigns). Leveraging a systems-based conceptual framework of roadway safety, multiple forms of statistical and geospatial analysis, and SPF modeling and network screening, this report proposes and demonstrates methods for unpacking the influence of behavioral-related factors on crash occurrences and outcomes. The primary focus is on behaviors targeted in the Strategic Highway Safety Plan — aggressive driving, distracted driving, impaired driving, and driving without proper restraint (i.e., seatbelts). Based on application of these methods, the report highlights areas and highway corridors in Kentucky where behavioral-related crashes have been most common. Practitioners can use methods presented in the report to locate areas where behavioral-related crashes are problematic and based on this knowledge design behavioral modification strategies and countermeasures which focus on at-risk populations

Angler effort and catch within a spatially complex system of small lakes

Spatial layout of waterbodies and waterbody size can affect a creel clerk’s ability to intercept anglers for interviews and to accurately count anglers, which will affect the accuracy and precision of estimates of effort and catch. This study aimed to quantify angling effort and catch across a spatially complex system of19 small (\u3c100 ha) lakes, the Fremont lakes. Total (±SE) angling effort (hours) on individual lakes ranged from 0 (0) to 7,137 (305). Bank anglers utilized 18 of the 19 lakes, and their mean (±SE) trip lengths(hours) ranged from 0.80 (0.31) to 7.75 (6.75), depending on the waterbody. In contrast, boat anglers utilized 14 of the 19 lakes, and their trip lengths ranged from 1.39 (0.24) to 4.25 (0.71), depending on the waterbody. The most sought fishes, as indexed by number of lakes on which effort was exerted, were anything (17 of 19 lakes), largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides (15 of 19 lakes), and channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus (13 of 19 lakes). Bluegill Lepomis machrochirus, crappie Pomoxis spp., and largemouth bass were caught most frequently across the lakes, but catch rates varied considerably by lake. Of the1,138 parties interviewed, most parties (93%) visited a single lake but there were 77 (7%) parties that indicated that they had visited multiple lakes during a single day. The contingent of parties that visited more than one lake a day were primarily (87%) bank anglers.. The number of lake-to-lake connections made by anglers visiting more than one waterbody during a single day was related to catch rates and total angling effort. The greater resolution that was achieved with a lake specific creel survey at Fremont lakes revealed a system of lakes with a large degree of spatial variation in angler effort and catch that would be missed by a coarser, system-wide survey that did not differentiate individual lakes

Report to UNHCR Chad on proposals for livestock and animal owners in Eastern Chad.

Estimates of current livestock numbers owned by refugees in the 12 UNCHR camps in eastern Chad vary widely between 173,000 and 427,000 head, using data gathered by camp authorities. Finding adequate food for these animals is becoming an increasing challenge for their owners and is leading to increased tension between refugees and the host communities as they compete for already limited resources. The confinement of livestock within a relatively short distance from the camps is resulting in long-term environmental degradation resulting from over-exploitation of natural resources. Livestock mortality is very high due to high disease incidence exacerbated by poor nutrition. The application of traditional pastoralist management systems to an intensified livestock population is increasing the attrition of livestock, accelerating environmental degradation, increasing the risk of inter-ethnic conflict and, consequentially, failing to ensure that the most benefits possible in terms of added-value are being derived from the available livestock. Solutions to the problem of feeding the livestock belonging to refugees are made complex by the lack of incentive to invest in a region where camp dwellers have no land tenure rights and a strong desire to return home as soon as possible. In order to reduce conflict between refugees and the host community, solutions need to benefit both sectors.Due to the size of a camp and the concentration of dwellings in a small area, comparisons can be made with livestock keeping in a peri-urban environment. The over-grazing by the large numbers of livestock around the camps will result in degradation of the local environment and ultimately livestock may only be able to be kept by following a programme by refugee livestock owners of cutting and carrying available forage back to the immediate vicinity of the camps. An alternative, is that (as we shall later propose) fodder and crop residues are bought and brought in from outside the camp. However far more benefit would certainly derive from a planned programme of growing forage crops, either by the refugees, or endemic villagers who could then sell them to the refugees and gain a valuable additional income. However a balance has to be struck between what is currently an unsustainable situation, characterised by a excessive livestock population carrying out possibly long-term environmental degradation, versus support for an artificial system of livestock management, which will entail interventionary support and management, the planned and budgeted provision of supplementary feed and the perpetuation of a system which disconnects the refugees from their animal ownership and management traditions and knowledge. A series of recommendations will be made that are designed to reduce the overwhelming demand for forage in the short and medium term. If implemented, they should result in smaller, fitter herds of livestock that in the long term can be both more readily repatriated and readapted to the more favourable grazing conditions found in Western Sudan

Report to UNHCR Chad on proposals for livestock and animal owners in Eastern Chad.

Estimates of current livestock numbers owned by refugees in the 12 UNCHR camps in eastern Chad vary widely between 173,000 and 427,000 head, using data gathered by camp authorities. Finding adequate food for these animals is becoming an increasing challenge for their owners and is leading to increased tension between refugees and the host communities as they compete for already limited resources. The confinement of livestock within a relatively short distance from the camps is resulting in long-term environmental degradation resulting from over-exploitation of natural resources. Livestock mortality is very high due to high disease incidence exacerbated by poor nutrition. The application of traditional pastoralist management systems to an intensified livestock population is increasing the attrition of livestock, accelerating environmental degradation, increasing the risk of inter-ethnic conflict and, consequentially, failing to ensure that the most benefits possible in terms of added-value are being derived from the available livestock. Solutions to the problem of feeding the livestock belonging to refugees are made complex by the lack of incentive to invest in a region where camp dwellers have no land tenure rights and a strong desire to return home as soon as possible. In order to reduce conflict between refugees and the host community, solutions need to benefit both sectors.Due to the size of a camp and the concentration of dwellings in a small area, comparisons can be made with livestock keeping in a peri-urban environment. The over-grazing by the large numbers of livestock around the camps will result in degradation of the local environment and ultimately livestock may only be able to be kept by following a programme by refugee livestock owners of cutting and carrying available forage back to the immediate vicinity of the camps. An alternative, is that (as we shall later propose) fodder and crop residues are bought and brought in from outside the camp. However far more benefit would certainly derive from a planned programme of growing forage crops, either by the refugees, or endemic villagers who could then sell them to the refugees and gain a valuable additional income. However a balance has to be struck between what is currently an unsustainable situation, characterised by a excessive livestock population carrying out possibly long-term environmental degradation, versus support for an artificial system of livestock management, which will entail interventionary support and management, the planned and budgeted provision of supplementary feed and the perpetuation of a system which disconnects the refugees from their animal ownership and management traditions and knowledge. A series of recommendations will be made that are designed to reduce the overwhelming demand for forage in the short and medium term. If implemented, they should result in smaller, fitter herds of livestock that in the long term can be both more readily repatriated and readapted to the more favourable grazing conditions found in Western Sudan

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

The impact of COVID-19 public health restrictions on particulate matter pollution measured by a validated low-cost sensor network in Oxford, UK

Emergency responses to the COVID-19 pandemic led to major changes in travel behaviours and economic activities with arising impacts upon urban air quality. To date, these air quality changes associated with lockdown measures have typically been assessed using limited city-level regulatory monitoring data, however, low-cost air quality sensors provide capabilities to assess changes across multiple locations at higher spatial-temporal resolution, thereby generating insights relevant for future air quality interventions. The aim of this study was to utilise high-spatial resolution air quality information utilising data arising from a validated (using a random forest field calibration) network of 15 low-cost air quality sensors within Oxford, UK to monitor the impacts of multiple COVID-19 public heath restrictions upon particulate matter concentrations (PM10, PM2.5) from January 2020 to September 2021. Measurements of PM10 and PM2.5 particle size fractions both within and between site locations are compared to a pre-pandemic related public health restrictions baseline. While average peak concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 were reduced by 9–10 μg/m3 below typical peak levels experienced in recent years, mean daily PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were only ∼1 μg/m3 lower and there was marked temporal (as restrictions were added and removed) and spatial variability (across the 15-sensor network) in these observations. Across the 15-sensor network we observed a small local impact from traffic related emission sources upon particle concentrations near traffic-oriented sensors with higher average and peak concentrations as well as greater dynamic range, compared to more intermediate and background orientated sensor locations. The greater dynamic range in concentrations is indicative of exposure to more variable emission sources, such as road transport emissions. Our findings highlight the great potential for low-cost sensor technology to identify highly localised changes in pollutant concentrations as a consequence of changes in behaviour (in this case influenced by COVID-19 restrictions), generating insights into non-traffic contributions to PM emissions in this setting. It is evident that additional non-traffic related measures would be required in Oxford to reduce the PM10 and levels to within WHO health-based guidelines and to achieve compliance with PM2.5 targets developed under the Environment Act 2021

Reconstruction of primary vertices at the ATLAS experiment in Run 1 proton–proton collisions at the LHC

This paper presents the method and performance of primary vertex reconstruction in proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment during Run 1 of the LHC. The studies presented focus on data taken during 2012 at a centre-of-mass energy of √s=8 TeV. The performance has been measured as a function of the number of interactions per bunch crossing over a wide range, from one to seventy. The measurement of the position and size of the luminous region and its use as a constraint to improve the primary vertex resolution are discussed. A longitudinal vertex position resolution of about 30μm is achieved for events with high multiplicity of reconstructed tracks. The transverse position resolution is better than 20μm and is dominated by the precision on the size of the luminous region. An analytical model is proposed to describe the primary vertex reconstruction efficiency as a function of the number of interactions per bunch crossing and of the longitudinal size of the luminous region. Agreement between the data and the predictions of this model is better than 3% up to seventy interactions per bunch crossing

Implementation of link workers in primary care: Synopsis of findings from a realist evaluation

Background Social prescribing link workers formed part of the Additional Roles Reimbursement Scheme introduced into primary care in England from 2019. Link workers assist patients experiencing issues affecting their health and well-being that are ‘non-medical’ (e.g. lack of social connections, financial difficulties and housing problems). They give patients space to consider these non-medical issues and, when relevant, connect them to support, often within the voluntary–community–social–enterprise sector. We conducted an earlier realist review on the link worker role in primary care. We then carried out a realist evaluation, described in this report, to address the question: When implementing link workers in primary care to sustain outcomes – what works, for whom, why and in what circumstances? Aim To develop evidence-based recommendations to optimise the implementation of link workers in primary care and to enable patients to receive the best support possible. Design A realist evaluation, involving two work packages. Setting Data were collected around seven link workers in different parts of England. Methods For work package 1, researchers spent 3 weeks with each link worker – going to meetings with them, watching them interact with patients, with healthcare professionals and with voluntary–community–social–enterprise staff. During this time, researchers had a daily debrief with the link worker, inviting them to reflect on their working day, and they collected relevant documents (e.g. job descriptions and information on social prescribing given to patients). They also conducted interviews with 93 primary care/voluntary–community–social–enterprise staff and 61 patients. As part of this work package, data on patient contact with a general practitioner before and after being referred to a link worker were collected. Work package 2 consisted of follow-up interviews (9–12 months later) with patients; 41 were reinterviewed. In addition, link workers were reinterviewed. A realist logic of analysis was used to test (confirm, refute or refine) the programme theory we developed from our realist review. Analysis explored connections between contexts, mechanisms and outcomes to explain how, why and in what circumstances the implementation of link workers might be beneficial (or not) to patients and/or healthcare delivery. Results We produced three papers from the research – one on link workers ‘holding’ patients, one on the role of discretion in their job, and another exploring patient-focused data and readiness to engage in social prescribing. Data from these papers were considered in relation to Normalisation Process Theory – a framework for conceptualising the implementation of new interventions into practice (e.g. link workers into primary care). By doing so, we identified infrastructural factors required to help link workers to: (1) offer person-centred care; (2) develop patients’ self-confidence, sense of hope and social capital; (3) facilitate appropriate general practitioner use; (4) foster job satisfaction among those delivering social prescribing. Discussion Our research highlighted the importance of a supportive infrastructure (including supervision, training, leadership/management, clarity about the role, link workers’ ability to use existing skills and knowledge and having capacity to connect with providers in the voluntary–community–social–enterprise sector) in order to produce person-centred care, to nurture hope, self-confidence and social capital among patients, to ensure they receive the right support (medical or non-medical), and to promote link workers’ job satisfaction. Data showed how link workers can contribute to the offer of holistic care beyond a purely medical lens of health and illness. Funding This synopsis presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme as award number NIHR130247