A METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING INTEGRATED FORECASTING/DECISION MODEL PARAMETERS USING LINEAR PROGRAMMING

A linear programming algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of a wheat storage decision model. This approach allows objective functions other than minimization of error squared to be used. It is demonstrated that by using a profit maximization objective function, an improved wheat storage decision model can be developed.Crop Production/Industries,

AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE PEANUT MARKETING QUOTAS AND SUPPORT PRICES

Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing,

ECONOMIC HOMOGENEITY OF GRADE CLASSIFICATIONS UNDER THE NEW AND OLD FEEDER CATTLE GRADING SYSTEMS

Livestock Production/Industries,

Experiences in macroeconomic forecasting in the Federal Republic of Germany, 1976 - 1987

There have always been fluctuations of production, employment, and prices in economic history. A lot of strenuous work and intellectual efforts have been put into the study of these fluctuations. Huge amounts of time series data have been collected and indicators have been compiled to determine cyclical regularities and to provide information on the cycle (see for example Burns and Mitchell, 1946). And many attempts have been made to explain the forces behind the ups and downs of economic activity (see Zarnowitz, 1985). Whereas originally business cycle research was mainly directed at understanding the fluctuations, research objectives became more practical after the shock of the Great Depression. The experience of the strong and protracted economic downturn enhanced the call for a more active role of the government in supporting economic growth and in maintaining a high level' of employment. Keynes1 General Theory (1936) delivered the theoretical basis for this policy.

Explaining the Bond-CDS Basis: The role of credit risk and liquidity

We explore the relationship between CDS premia and bond asset swap spreads on the same reference entity. As Duffie (1999) shows, there is a clear theoretical link between CDS premia and bond prices if the two quantities are viewed as a pure measure of credit risk. However, many studies provide evidence that factors other than credit risk seem to affect bond prices and CDS premia, and these factors may partially obscure the relationship. We focus on the difference between the yield spread and the CDS premium, the bond-CDS basis, and show that the basis is highly sensitive to firm-specific and market wide credit risk and liquidity. If CDS and bonds are used in a dynamic hedging strategy or in a basis trading strategy that depends on the convergence of CDS and bond markets, it is necessary to correctly quantify the associated risks of these strategies. --

Investment behavior and yields in some West German industries

Net investment plays a crucial role for the economic development of a country. It contributes to the growth of real income and to the supply of jobs. Therefore, in view of sluggish growth and rising unemployment in Germany, the government as well as the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Council of Economic Experts have repeatedly pointed out the need to promote overall investment. Looking at the share of fixed investment in GDP in the German economy which is relatively high by international standards the complaints about the weakness of investment appear to be somewhat exaggerated. However, a closer look at the investment numbers published by the Deutsche Bundesbank (1983a, 1984) shows that the structure of domestic capital formation has changed dramatically since 1960. While investment by the non-financial business sector excluding housing accounted for 55 per cent of total investment in 1960, it has declined to some 30 per cent in the early 1980s (Figure 1) . Investment in residential construction and public investment have increased their share from about 44 per cent to more than two thirds in the early 1980s. Thus, instead of using more resources for enlarging and improving productive capacities, an increasing share of domestic savings has been channeled into projects the choice of which has not been made according to private profitability but from the point of view of social benefits. Among these projects are expenditures on infrastructure, public swimming pools, city halls, hospitals, family homes etc., which increase social consumption but hardly contribute to improve the competitiveness of the German industry in domestic and in international markets.