Factor Model Forecasts for New Zealand

This paper focuses on forecasting four key New Zealand macroeconomic variables using a dynamic factor model and a large number of predictors. We compare the (simulated) real-time forecasting performance of the factor model with a variety of other time-series models (including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s published forecasts), and we gauge the sensitivity of our results to alternative variable-selection algorithms. We find that the factor model performs particularly well at longer horizons.

Factor Model Forecasts for New Zealand

This paper focuses on forecasting four key New Zealand macroeconomic variables using a dynamic factor model and a large number of predictors. We compare the (simulated) real-time forecasting performance of the factor model with a variety of other time-series models (including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s published forecasts), and we gauge the sensitivity of our results to alternative variable-selection algorithms. We find that the factor model performs particularly well at longer horizons

Factor Model Forecasts for New Zealand

This paper focuses on forecasting four key New Zealand macroeconomic variables using a dynamic factor model and a large number of predictors. We compare the (simulated) real-time forecasting performance of the factor model with a variety of other time-series models (including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s published forecasts), and we gauge the sensitivity of our results to alternative variable-selection algorithms. We find that the factor model performs particularly well at longer horizons

Antibody-free magnetic cell sorting of genetically modified primary human CD4+ T cells by one-step streptavidin affinity purification.

Existing methods for phenotypic selection of genetically modified mammalian cells suffer disadvantages of time, cost and scalability and, where antibodies are used to bind exogenous cell surface markers for magnetic selection, typically yield cells coated with antibody-antigen complexes and beads. To overcome these limitations we have developed a method termed Antibody-Free Magnetic Cell Sorting in which the 38 amino acid Streptavidin Binding Peptide (SBP) is displayed at the cell surface by the truncated Low Affinity Nerve Growth Receptor (LNGFRF) and used as an affinity tag for one-step selection with streptavidin-conjugated magnetic beads. Cells are released through competition with the naturally occurring vitamin biotin, free of either beads or antibody-antigen complexes and ready for culture or use in downstream applications. Antibody-Free Magnetic Cell Sorting is a rapid, cost-effective, scalable method of magnetic selection applicable to either viral transduction or transient transfection of cell lines or primary cells. We have optimised the system for enrichment of primary human CD4+ T cells expressing shRNAs and exogenous genes of interest to purities of >99%, and used it to isolate cells following Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR)/Cas9 genome editing

Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence

The persistence of U.S. unemployment has risen with each of the last three recessions, raising the specter that future U.S. recessions might look more like the Eurosclerosis experience of the 1980s than traditional V-shaped recoveries of the past. In this paper, we revisit possible explanations for this rising persistence. First, we argue that financial shocks do not systematically lead to more persistent unemployment than monetary policy shocks, so these cannot explain the rising persistence of unemployment. Second, monetary and fiscal policies can account for only part of the evolving unemployment persistence. Therefore, we turn to a third class of explanations: propagation mechanisms. We focus on factors consistent with four other cyclical patterns which have evolved since the early 1980s: a rising cyclicality in long-term unemployment, lower regional convergence after downturns, rising cyclicality in disability claims, and missing disinflation. These factors include declining labor mobility, changing age structures, and the decline in trust among Americans. To determine how these factors affect unemployment persistence, this paper exploits regional variation in labor market outcomes across Western Europe and North America during 1970-1990, in contrast to most previous work focusing either on cross-country variation or regional variation within countries. The results suggest that only cultural factors can account for the rising persistence of unemployment in the U.S., but the evolution in mobility and demographics over time should have more than offset the effects of culture

How to Improve Inflation Forecasting in Canada

Against the backdrop of an ongoing review of the inflation-targeting framework, this paper examines the real-time inflation forecasts of the Bank of Canada with the aim of identifying potential areas for improvement. Not surprisingly, the results show that errors in forecasting non-core inflation (commodity prices etc.) are found to be the largest contributors to overall inflation forecast errors. Perhaps more importantly, relatively small core inflation forecast errors appear to mask large and offsetting errors related to the output gap and the policy interest rate, partly reflecting a tendency to overestimate the neutral nominal policy rate in real time. Faced with these uncertainties, the Governing Council’s gradual approach to changing its policy settings appears to have served it well.</jats:p

Why does Australia grow faster than New Zealand?

We analyse the divergence in productivity between Australia and New Zealand, with a special emphasis on quantifying the industry-level contributors to the divergence and on whether the countries have comparable growth processes. The Convergence Hypothesis is tested between industries and across countries. We find that two industries satisfy our definition of Conditional Convergence (Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing and Cultural and Recreational Services). Cointegration tests reveal more stochastic trends governing Australian productivity than in New Zealand. Decompositions of the divergence to the industry-level suggest large contributions from differences in labour growth across the two countries, and significant contributions from cross-country structural differences. Most of the industries add to the divergence, with particularly large contributions from differences across the Mining and Wholesale Trade industries. The evidence suggests that the growth processes of the two economies are fundamentally different, thereby questioning the relevance of comparisons between them

De nouveaux indicateurs de suivi de la croissance en temps réel dans 32 économies avancées et émergentes

New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time in 32 Advanced and Emerging Economies. We develop monthly indicators for tracking short-run trends in real GDP growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. To do so, we use a two-stage procedure inspired by Giannone et alii (2008) that combines the estimation of dynamic factor models on and the application of the Kalman filter to heterogeneous data in terms of frequency and publishing delays. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good real GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models.Dans cet article, nous élaborons des indicateurs mensuels de suivi des tendances à court terme des taux de croissance du PIB réel dans 32 économies de marché avancées et émergentes. Pour ce faire, nous recourons à une procédure en deux étapes inspirée de Giannone et alii (2008), combinant l’estimation de modèles à facteurs dynamiques et l’utilisation du filtre de Kalman sur des données présentant des périodicités et des délais de publication différents. Nous constatons que ces indicateurs décrivent de manière satisfaisante le cycle conjoncturel des pays concernés sur le passé. Un exercice récursif de prévision hors échantillon montre en outre qu’ils fournissent en général de bonnes prévisions de croissance comparativement à un large éventail de modèles de prévision concurrents.Matheson Troy D. De nouveaux indicateurs de suivi de la croissance en temps réel dans 32 économies avancées et émergentes. In: Économie & prévision, n°199, 2012. pp. 31-50